Last week's pivot · 2026-W23 (2026-06-01 ~ 2026-06-07)
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Daily briefing · 2026-05-26 (Tue)

Iran deal nears, oil crashes; Nikkei 65,158 record

US-Iran 60-day truce and Hormuz reopening imminent send Brent crashing 5.5% to $97; Nikkei 65,158 and Taiwan 43,477 hit records; Samsung union vote at 87.93% nears passage.

7Must-read
17Fields
95Sources
★ Must-read

Today's must-read · 7 stories

01
Politics × Energy × Trending now

Trump's Iran deal 'mostly settled' remark crashes Brent 5.5% to $97; 60-day truce and Hormuz reopening at core

After 5/23 calls with Saudi Arabia and Israel, Trump said the Iran deal was 'mostly settled' and reiterated it on 5/25, sending Brent crude crashing 5.5% to $97.90/barrel and WTI down 5.79% to $91.01, breaking $100 for the first time in a month. A 60-day ceasefire, Hormuz reopening, and free Iranian oil sales are core terms, with an official announcement imminent on 5/26-28. However, Netanyahu demands dismantling of enrichment facilities and removal of nuclear material as final conditions, while Republican hawks Graham, Wicker and others push back fiercely, making the announcement timing fluid.

02
Markets × Tech × Rising

Nikkei 65,158 settles above 65,000 for first time; Taiwan 43,477 record; STOXX 600 two-month high

On 5/25 Tokyo's Nikkei 225 surged 2.87% to close at a record 65,158.19, settling above 65,000 for the first time. Taiwan Weighted jumped 1,209 points (+2.9%) to a record 43,477, with TSMC and electronics names up 3.5% leading the index. Despite the US Memorial Day holiday, expectations of a Hormuz reopening strengthened risk appetite globally, with Europe's STOXX 600 also up 1% to a two-month high of 631.63. Korea's KOSPI reopens 5/26 after the Buddha's Birthday substitute holiday from its prior close of 7,847.71 on 5/22.

03
Labor × Markets × Pain points

Samsung union vote at 87.93% as passage imminent; 5/27 count to confirm $4M+ memory bonus

Samsung Electronics' 57,290-person union ratification vote on the provisional agreement reached 87.93% participation by 5/25 afternoon, exceeding the passage quorum. Voting closes 5/27 at 10AM with immediate counting, locking in an average 6.2% wage increase and a new 10.5% DS division semiconductor special bonus, with the memory division receiving an average bonus of roughly 600 million won. With 80% of union members in the DS division, passage looks highly likely, while some DX division rejection campaigns remain a variable, making this June's inflection point for global memory supply chain stability.

04
Tech × Startups × Rising

Anthropic $900B valuation, $30B round closing this week, overtaking OpenAI's $852B as largest AI raise

Claude developer Anthropic is closing a $30B+ new round during the week of 5/26. With a $900B post-money valuation, it overtakes OpenAI's $852B from March to become the largest AI startup round in history. Sequoia, Dragoneer, Altimeter, and Greenoaks are co-leading with roughly $2B each, joined by existing investors including Founders Fund and General Catalyst. Considered the new peak of the AI mega-valuation cycle, with an October IPO possibility being discussed, the closing serves as the core variable for reshaping the global AI capital landscape this week.

05
Pain points × Energy × Macro

AAA US Memorial Day gas $4.56/gallon four-year high; all 50 states clear $4

AAA data shows the Memorial Day weekend US national gasoline average reached $4.56/gallon, up 3 cents week-over-week, officially marking the highest Memorial Day price in four years. Year-over-year prices surged $1.38, with California at $6.14 and all 50 states clearing $4. Hormuz's 88-day blockade combined with 45 million travelers compounded household pressure, while a Hormuz reopening could bring summer averages gradually down to $4.80. The extra $22 per tank fill directly drives Memorial Day household budget pressure.

06
Culture × Markets × Trending now

Disney 'Mandalorian and Grogu' $100M Memorial Day debut; lowest Star Wars opening since acquisition

Disney's 'Mandalorian and Grogu' opened the Memorial Day weekend at #1 with $100M domestic and $163M global. However, it marked the lowest opening for any Star Wars film since Disney's acquisition, comparable to 2018's 'Solo' ($103M), amplifying signs of franchise fatigue. Meanwhile, horror film 'Obsession' surged 30% in its second weekend to a cumulative $58M domestic and $79.8M global, continuing its 100x-budget run with just $750,000 in production costs, in the first post-Cannes weekend box office watched closely after Park Chan-wook's jury role.

07
Health × Politics × Pain points

WHO Bundibugyo Ebola PHEIC expands to 746 cases, 176 deaths; DOJ escalates RFK vaccine appeal

The Bundibugyo Ebola variant, declared a PHEIC by WHO on 5/17, expanded to 746 suspected cases and 176 deaths across DRC's Ituri Province and Uganda as of 5/21. With 85 confirmed cases and 10 confirmed deaths and no approved Bundibugyo-specific vaccine or therapy, 30-50% fatality concerns are heightened, with clinical trials still 6-9 months away. Meanwhile, the US DOJ filed an appeal against Judge Murphy's 3/16 injunction, formally responding to the ruling blocking RFK Jr.'s HHS ACIP restructuring, with 15 state AGs' invalidation suits also intensifying the legal battle.

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By field

01Trending now

Real-time Trends

Ryu Hyun-jin 200 wins, Chung Yong-jin Starbucks apology, Lee Jae-myung Ilbe shutdown order dominate SNS overnight
Ryu Hyun-jin reaches 200 combined US-Korea wins, first since Song Jin-woo 16 years ago

Hanwha's Ryu Hyun-jin won 5/24 vs Doosan in Daejeon, 6⅔ innings, 2 ER, no walks, reaching 200 wins combined (KBO 122, MLB 78). First Korean 200-win pitcher since Song Jin-woo (210).

Chung Yong-jin to apologize publicly 9AM 5/26 over Starbucks 'Tank Day' marketing

Shinsegae Chairman Chung Yong-jin will apologize 5/26 at Chosun Palace Hotel over the Starbucks Korea 5·18 'Tank Day' marketing controversy and disclose investigation findings. CEO Son Jung-hyun has already been dismissed.

President Lee Jae-myung orders 'Ilbe shutdown, punitive damages' at Cabinet

Lee shared on X 5/24 the Roh Moo-hyun 17th anniversary mockery incident and ordered 'review of Ilbe-style hate site shutdowns, fines, punitive damages' at Cabinet, reigniting free speech debate.

Park Chan-wook hands out Palme d'Or saying 'didn't want to give it but had no choice'

At the 79th Cannes Festival closing (Korea time 5/24 dawn), director Park Chan-wook, the first Korean competition jury president, led 8 jurors including Demi Moore and Chloé Zhao through the closing ceremony.

02Pain points

Cost of Living

Gas $4.56, ACA premiums +114%, Korea power gas +7.5% — energy, healthcare, food costs squeeze households
US gas $4.56/gallon Memorial Day, all 50 states clear $4

National average rose $1.40 YoY to $4.56/gallon, with all 50 states clearing $4. Prolonged Hormuz blockade could push prices to a record $5.02; summer average projected at $4.80.

ACA premiums +26% average, subsidy expiration drives 114% enrollee burden surge

With enhanced premium tax credits expiring, 2026 marketplace premiums rise 26% on average, and enrollee annual premium burden jumps from $888 to $1,904, up 114%. An estimated 7.3 million enrollees will exit the market.

US grocery +2.9% highest since Aug 2023, beef +18%, tomatoes +40%

April at-home food prices rose 2.9% YoY, highest since August 2023. Beef roasts +18%, ground beef +14.5%, fresh tomatoes +39.7% pushed monthly food spending for a family of four to $1,430.

Korea May power-gen gas tariff +7.5%, industrial up 10.6%

May power-generation natural gas wholesale rate rose 7.5% (1,255 won) MoM to 17,961 won/GJ. Industrial +10.6%, transportation +10.2%, with Middle East LNG price hikes set to cascade into SMP power tariffs.

Korea self-employed DSR >40% loans hit record 1,451 trillion won

Q3 last year, 29.6% of self-employed with financial debt exceeded 40% DSR, balance at record 1,451 trillion won since data began. Average self-employed household debt reached 124.79 million won.

03Emerging markets

Emerging Markets

BI surprise 50bp hike, SARB 5/28 decision imminent; Middle East oil shock pressures EM currencies and inflation
BI hikes 50bp to 5.25% defending rupiah at 17,700

Bank Indonesia raised policy rate to 5.25% with a 50bp hike at 5/19-20 meeting, exceeding market consensus of 25bp. Imported inflation from Middle East conflict and defending the rupiah at a record 17,700/USD cited as rationale.

SARB 5/28 decision: 6.75% hold vs 25bp hike too close to call

South African Reserve Bank announces first MPC of cycle 5/28. With 5/6 fuel price pass-through expected to push headline CPI back to 4.2%, Governor Kganyago's data-dependent stance faces a retest.

Turkish lira USD/TRY 45.71 record low; disinflation delays

Lira hit USD 45.61 as of 5/21, recently sliding to 45.71 at a record low. TCMB raised 2026 year-end inflation forecast to 26%, acknowledging Middle East-driven energy and food shocks are delaying disinflation.

India RBI conducts $5B swap to defend rupee at 97

RBI conducted $5B dollar-rupee buy/sell swap auction 5/26, providing liquidity ahead of 6/3-5 MPC. 10-year sovereign yields fell 6bp to 7.03%, maintaining a 250bp spread vs US.

Brazil IPCA slows to 4.39%, Selic 13% cut bets spread

May-released 12-month IPCA at 4.39%, sharply down from 5.53% prior, approaching but below the 4.5% target ceiling. Copom cut Selic by 25bp to 14.50% on 4/29; the real strengthened to 4.9123.

04Macro

Macro

Bond vigilantes test Warsh's first FOMC; 30Y stuck above 5%, dollar consolidates in 99 range
30Y at 5.08%, 10Y at 4.57%: bond vigilantes pressure new Warsh Fed

After Trump installed Warsh as Fed Chair on 22nd, 30-year auction stopped at 5.058%, highest since 2007. The 10-year closed at 4.57% and 30-year at 5.08%, turning the 6/17 first FOMC into a stress test.

June FOMC hold odds 65%; cut bets vanish, hike narrative emerges

At Warsh's first 6/16-17 FOMC, hold odds at 3.50-3.75% measured at 65%, and Yardeni said a July hike is unavoidable for the Fed to placate bond vigilantes.

USD/JPY breaks 159; Tokyo CPI 1.4% eases BOJ hike pressure

Yen closed past 159 on 22nd, two consecutive weeks of weakness, and April Tokyo core CPI slowed to a 4-year low of 1.4%, easing near-term BOJ hike pressure but reviving the 160 intervention level.

ECB holds at 2% third meeting; eurozone CPI 3% raises June hike scenario

ECB held the policy rate at 2% on 4/30 for the third consecutive meeting; eurozone inflation at 3% and Q1 GDP slowed to 0.8%. Lagarde signaled judgment in 6 weeks, with a 25bp June hike to 2.25% under discussion.

DXY retreats to 98.96; 5/28 April PCE release is watershed

DXY closed 0.28% down at 98.9645 on 25th, testing the 99 range bottom. The 4/28 April PCE release (March headline 3.5%, core 3.2%) will drive Warsh's first FOMC and bond market direction.

05Markets

Markets

Nikkei 65,158 record, Taiwan 43,477 fresh high; S&P futures rally despite US Memorial Day close
Nikkei 225 breaks 65,000 for first time, closes at record 65,158

Japan's Nikkei 225 surged 2.87% to a record 65,158.19 on 5/25. Hormuz reopening expectations sent oil 5% lower, stoking risk appetite, with SoftBank and chip-related names leading the rally.

Taiwan Weighted 43,477 settles above 43,000 first time on AI rally

Taiwan Weighted Index jumped 2.9% (1,209p) to a record 43,477 on 5/25. Electronics and tech up 3.5% led, with TSMC at 40% of market cap rising 1.8% driving strength.

Korea KOSPI reopens 5/26 after Buddha's Birthday substitute holiday

Last trading day 5/22 KOSPI closed at 7,847.71 (+0.41%). After 5/21 record +606p (+8.42%) settling, Nomura set targets at 11,000, Samsung 590,000 won, SK Hynix 4,000,000 won.

Europe STOXX 600 631.63, two-month high +1%

STOXX 600 rose 1% to 631.63 on 5/25, within 1% of February's all-time high. US-Iran peace hopes drove banks +2%, with Lufthansa +3.4% and Air France +6.2% on the 5% oil drop.

US Memorial Day closed; S&P futures rally on peace deal hopes

5/25 NYSE and Nasdaq closed but futures rallied on US-Iran peace talks expectations. Prior 5/22 S&P 500 closed at 7,473.47 (+0.37%) for an 8-week winning streak; normal trading resumes 5/26.

06Rising

Top Movers

KOSPI 7,844 record, HBM duo surges, SoftBank +11.89% accelerates Asia AI rally
KOSPI daily turnover tops 40 trillion won first time; Samsung+Hynix take 43%

On 5/25 KOSPI hit a record 7,844.01 with daily turnover crossing 40 trillion won for the first time. Samsung Electronics + SK Hynix combined 20.569 trillion won took 43% of total, with HBM4 sold-out momentum driving.

SK Hynix +78.68% in one month; PER overtakes Samsung first time

SK Hynix (000660) as of 5/25 close has 1-month gain of 78.68%, more than double Samsung Electronics' 35.44%. 2026 forward PER at 6.79x surpassed Samsung's 6.77x for the first time, with analysts citing a leadership shift.

SoftBank 9984 jumps 11.89% to ¥7,070 close, leading Asia AI

Tokyo 9984 closed 5/25 at ¥7,070 (+4.63%), with intraday high of ¥6,881 and DoD +11.89% jump. ARM and OpenAI exposure highlighted; 3-day cumulative ~40% rally added $61B to market cap.

AutoZone, Zscaler report 5/26: first big event after Memorial Day

AZO pre-market, ZS after-hours FY26 Q3 earnings. AutoZone prior quarter EPS $27.63; Zscaler consensus EPS $1.01, revenue $836M. First earnings momentum post-Memorial Day holiday close, in focus.

K-defense orders quantum leap: Hanwha Aero 23.3T, Hyundai Rotem 23.2T won

2026 K-defense export orders forecast at 3.7x 2025. Hanwha Aerospace (012450) 23.3T, Hyundai Rotem 23.2T, KAI 6.5T, LIG Nex1 (079550) 3.6T won orders becoming visible, putting the sector back in focus.

07Tech

Tech

Anthropic's $900B round closes this week; AI infra, humanoids, robotaxis accelerate together
Anthropic closes $30B round at $900B valuation this week

Sequoia, Dragoneer, Altimeter, and Greenoaks co-leading with ~$2B each, closing imminent during week of 5/26. Set to overtake March's $852B OpenAI as world's most valuable AI startup.

NVIDIA Q1 revenue $81.6B; data center surges 69%

FY27 Q1 announced 5/20 revenue $81.6B beat consensus $78.8B, data center $39.1B (+69% YoY). Q2 guidance $89.1-92.8B, $80B buyback authorization and $0.25 dividend hike also announced.

Google unveils Gemini 3.5 Flash and Omni at I/O

5/19 I/O launched Gemini 3.5 Flash, output token speed 4x competing frontiers. Omni is video I/O integrated multimodal, available immediately to AI Plus, Pro, and Ultra subscribers from 5/21.

Figure AI humanoid sorts packages 50 hours unsupervised

Figure 03 autonomously sorted packages for 50 consecutive hours using only the onboard Helix-02 neural network, with zero teleoperation. BotQ line entered 1-per-hour mass production, with 350+ units made in 4 months.

Tesla FSD expands to 3 Texas cities unmanned robotaxi

Operating without safety monitors in Austin, Dallas, Houston; Musk announced more US city expansion this year. 17 accidents reported 2025-26. Waymo at 450K weekly rides, planning 20 metros beyond 6 current cities.

08Startups

Startups

Anthropic $900B, Anduril $61B, DeepSeek $50B: AI and defense mega-rounds dominate flow
Anthropic $30B round closing at $900B valuation imminent

Sequoia, Dragoneer, Altimeter, and Greenoaks each co-leading with ~$2B; $900B pre-money overtaking OpenAI's $852B to become highest-ever valued AI startup.

Anduril $5B Series H doubles valuation to $61B

Thrive Capital and a16z led, 2x in 11 months from $30.5B to $61B. 2025 revenue at $2.2B more than 2x growth, with $20B 10-year government procurement contract also announced.

Helsing $1.2B Series D at $18B valuation, Germany's largest

Dragoneer and Lightspeed led $1.2B Series D at $18B valuation, 3.6x from $5B in 2024. Daniel Ek-backed Munich defense AI becomes Germany's most valuable startup.

DeepSeek $50B first external round with Tencent, Alibaba

Pursuing $3-4B first external funding led by China's Big Fund 3, with $45-50B valuation. Tencent, Alibaba, Hillhouse in participation talks; main models had prices cut 75% on 25th.

Lime, Uber-backed micromobility files for Nasdaq IPO

Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan to underwrite ticker LIME Nasdaq listing application. 2025 revenue $886M with 29% growth but net loss $59.3M, with $846M of debt maturing within 12 months.

09Crypto

Crypto

BTC consolidates at $77K, ETF 6-day outflows, MiCA transition deadline D-36 countdown
Bitcoin holds $77K range; ETH at $2,100 sustains weakness

5/25 BTC opened at $76,969 and rebounded to $77,292; ETH moved $2,097→$2,112. 77K breakdown last week triggered $657M liquidations, with macro uncertainty persisting.

US spot BTC ETFs 6-day net outflows; $1.55B exits

Since 5/14, US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $1.55B in net outflows, reducing 2026 cumulative net inflows to $536M. April's $1.97B inflow (year's largest) momentum cools sharply.

Stablecoin cap $323.2B record, USDT at $189.7B

Mid-May stablecoin total market cap hit record $323.2B. USDT at $189.7B and USDC at $77.9B together hold 85% share, with global payment integration acceleration driving growth.

RWA tokenization crosses $34.5B, 2x in one year

May on-chain RWA market cap at $34.5B, 100%+ YoY growth, with US Treasury tokens $16B, commodities $6B, asset-backed credit $3B. BlackRock, Ondo, and Circle drive institutional adoption.

MiCA transition ends 7/1, EU unauthorized CASP shutdown imminent

ESMA confirmed MiCA 18-month transition ends 7/1, with unauthorized providers required to halt EU customer services. Violators face €5M or 5% revenue fines, with wind-down plan submissions mandatory.

10Health

Health

Bundibugyo Ebola PHEIC, oral GLP-1 approval, ACIP appeal: health crises run in parallel
WHO declares Bundibugyo Ebola PHEIC; 746 suspected cases, 176 deaths

WHO designated Bundibugyo Ebola in DRC and Uganda as PHEIC on 5/16. As of 5/21: 746 suspected cases, 176 deaths; 85 confirmed cases, 10 confirmed deaths with no approved vaccine or therapy.

FDA approves oral Wegovy: first GLP-1 obesity pill arrives

Novo Nordisk oral semaglutide 25mg received FDA obesity approval. OASIS 4 trial showed average 16.6% weight loss; uninsured launched in US at $149/month.

Lilly orforglipron gets FDA fast-track approval in 50 days

FDA approved Lilly's Foundayo (orforglipron) for obesity on 4/1. Fastest NME approval since 2002 at 50 days from application, with 36mg achieving 11.2% weight loss over 16 months.

DOJ appeals RFK Jr ACIP ruling to 1st Circuit

DOJ filed appeal in late April to the First Circuit Court of Appeals against Judge Murphy's 3/16 ruling voiding Secretary Kennedy's 13 ACIP appointments, continuing the vaccine policy overhaul.

H5N1 cumulative human cases pass 1,000; 48% fatality

CDC updated that HPAI A(H5N1) human infections since 1997 across 25 countries crossed 1,000 with ~48% deaths. Q1 2026 added 13 cases including a Bangladeshi pediatric death.

11Culture

Culture

Park Chan-wook closes Cannes, Mandalorian $100M debut, Obsession +30% week 2: culture upheaval
Park Chan-wook jury presides Cannes closing; Palme d'Or to 'Fjord'

At the 79th Cannes Festival closing 5/23, Christian Mungiu's new film 'Fjord' (starring Sebastian Stan and Renate Reinsve) won the Palme d'Or; Mungiu becomes the second director to win twice, 19 years apart.

NEON wins 7th straight Palme d'Or; Na Hong-jin's 'Hope' shuts out

'Fjord' North American distributor NEON set a record of 7 consecutive Palme d'Or distributions. Na Hong-jin's 'Hope', which received a 7-minute standing ovation on 5/17 premiere, won no awards despite acclaim; summer Korean release planned.

'Mandalorian and Grogu' debuts $100M Memorial Day weekend

Disney's 'Mandalorian and Grogu' opened at #1 with $100M domestic and $163M global Memorial Day weekend. However, lowest opening for any Star Wars since Disney's acquisition, on par with 2018's 'Solo' ($103M).

Horror 'Obsession' surges 30% week 2; record for genre

Focus and Blumhouse's 'Obsession' did $22.4M in 3 days, $28M over 4 in week 2 (+30%), setting horror's biggest-ever week-2 gain. Cumulative $58M domestic, $79.8M global on just $750K production budget.

K-pop 'ARIRANG' tops 4M, 'DEADLINE' 1.77M records

BTS March comeback album 'ARIRANG' crossed 4M in 3 days, #1 on Hanteo weekly. BLACKPINK EP 'DEADLINE' (2/27) hit 1.77M in first week, breaking K-pop girl group sales record, with 1.46M first-day alone.

12Fashion

Fashion

Demna's Gucci Times Square, Anderson's Dior LACMA, LVMH Marc Jacobs $850M sale signal upheaval
Demna debuts Gucci Cruise 2027 in Times Square

5/16 Demna covered 50 Times Square billboards with virtual Gucci ads and put street characters on runway in his first Cruise collection, evaluated as the most commercial and wardrobe-friendly debut.

Jonathan Anderson Dior debut; Hollywood fantasy at LACMA

5/13 first Dior Cruise 2027 at LACMA's new David Geffen Galleries. Marlene Dietrich 1949 jacket, California poppies, Philip Treacy hats fused couture with golden-age cinema.

LVMH confirms Marc Jacobs sale to WHP, G-III for $850M

5/14 LVMH confirmed sale of Marc Jacobs, acquired in 1997, to WHP Global and G-III Apparel for $850M. G-III invests $500M, ending a 30-year relationship as the luxury garage sale's opening salvo.

Kering Q1 -6%, Gucci -14.3% slide continues

Kering Q1 revenue €3.57B, -6% reported basis; Gucci at €1.35B fell 14.3%. Saint Laurent, Bottega, Balenciaga and jewelry grew; CEO Luca de Meo's first scorecard sent shares down 10%.

Cannes 79 red carpet: Chanel, Bottega, Dior couture parade

At 5/24 closing Cannes, Tilda Swinton in Chanel 2026 couture, Julianne Moore in Bottega Veneta for Kering Women in Motion award, Alexa Chung in custom Dior, Kristen Stewart wore two Chanel looks.

13Politics

Politics

Trump's Iran 60-day truce and Hormuz opening imminent; Netanyahu and Republican hawks push back hard
US-Iran 60-day truce, Hormuz reopening announcement imminent

Trump on 23rd said Hormuz reopening is effectively settled and an announcement is imminent. Terms include 60-day free navigation, Iran mine clearance, sanctions relief allowing oil export, with enrichment halt talks in parallel.

Netanyahu demands nuclear facility dismantlement; tense Trump call

Netanyahu posted on X 25th 'Iran will never have nuclear weapons,' stressing final deal must require enrichment facility dismantling and nuclear material removal. 20th Trump call showed Hezbollah ceasefire clause disagreement.

Graham, Wicker and other GOP hawks push back hard on Iran deal

Senator Graham warned a 60-day truce tilts Middle East balance toward Iran; Armed Services Chair Wicker called it a disaster. Trump dismissed them as 'losers who don't know anything.'

Korea 6·3 by-election D-8; Pyeongtaek-eul Kim Yong-nam 31% vs Cho Kuk 27%

May MBC poll: Pyeongtaek-eul Democrat Kim Yong-nam 31%, Cho Kuk's Revolutionary Party 27%, PPP Yoo Eui-dong 17%; Busan Bukgap Democrat Ha Jung-woo 38%, independent Han Dong-hoon 33%. 14 districts in concurrent by-elections.

UK Starmer resignation pressure mounts; 95 Labour MPs revolt

By mid-May 95+ Labour MPs demanded Starmer's resignation or departure schedule. 5/12 four junior ministers and 5/14 Health Secretary Streeting resigned. Starmer declared he stays, citing leadership challenge procedures not yet triggered.

14Energy

Energy

US-Iran peace progress hopes crash oil 5.5%; Hormuz 88-day blockade gas 4-year high
Trump peace remarks crash Brent 5.5% to $97

25th Trump signaled US-Iran deal possibility, sending Brent down 5.5% to $97.90/barrel, breaking $100 first time in a month. WTI closed at $91.01, down 5.79%.

Memorial Day gas $4.56/gallon, four-year high

AAA's Memorial Day weekend US national gasoline average hit $4.56/gallon, up 3 cents week-over-week and $1.38 year-over-year. Prolonged Hormuz blockade points to sustained summer highs.

Hormuz 88-day blockade; Qatar LNG 17% shutdown sustained

With IRGC blockading Hormuz to US and Israel-bound vessels since 2/28, QatarEnergy declared force majeure on 17% of liquefaction capacity after strikes, with multi-year recovery seen. 1/5 of global LNG disrupted.

Europe TTF gas drops to €46.63 on negotiation hopes

5/25 Dutch TTF gas futures fell 4.22% to €46.63/MWh. US-Iran negotiation hopes eased part of 6-week high burden, while winter inventory 96% target outlook maintained.

PJM capacity price $329; data centers and nuclear restart accelerate

PJM 2026-27 capacity auction cleared at $329/MW, 11x the $28.92 of two years ago. Constellation's 20-year PPA with MS for Three Mile Island unit 1 restart, with 15 new reactors / 12GW slated for the year.

15Labor

Labor

Samsung wage deal passage imminent, Meta 8K layoffs begin; AI-driven employment shock accelerates
Samsung wage vote at 87.93%; 27th 10AM immediate count

57,290 workers' provisional agreement vote hit 87.93% participation by 25th afternoon, exceeding passage quorum. 27th 10AM close and immediate count will confirm 6 hundred million won memory bonus.

Meta 8,000 layoff first notice; more cuts forecast

Meta on 20th notified 8,000 (~10% of workforce) of layoffs; combined with 6,000 rescinded postings, scale is 14,000. August and year-end additional cuts forecast; US severance 16 weeks + 2 per year applied.

US tech layoffs cross 130K; Oracle 30K largest single firm

TrueUp counts this year US tech layoffs at 339 events / 142,985 people; SkillSyncer at 134,603, ~993/day. Oracle 30K and Meta 8K lead, with cumulative 370K forecast for 2026.

Stanford AI Index: 22-25 yr software dev hiring -20%

Stanford HAI 2026 AI Index reports 22-25 year old software developer employment down ~20% since 2024. 30-40 yr seniors increased; AI skills demand in info industry expanded from 7.8% to 13.2%.

Hyundai union demands 30% net income bonus; June first talks

Hyundai Motor union demands 30% bonus distribution of last year's 10.36 trillion won net income, monthly base hike of 149,600 won, 100% bonus hike in June first talks. CEO cited US tariffs and Middle East risks.

16Mobility

Mobility

Waymo halts highway service in 4 cities; Tesla FSD enters Lithuania as EU's 2nd country
Waymo halts highway service in SF, LA, Phoenix, Miami

After construction-cone passage led to a police pursuit video going viral, freeway service was suspended in 4 cities on 5/21; Atlanta and 4 other locations also halted for flooding. Safety re-verification has formally begun.

Tesla FSD enters Lithuania, EU's 2nd country

5/19 via Dutch RDW certification reciprocity, FSD Supervised launches in Lithuania, securing EU's 2nd country entry 5 weeks after 4/10 Netherlands approval. Additional EU country dominos signaled.

IEA 2026 global EV sales forecast: 23 million units

Global EV Outlook 2026 released, 15% increase YoY to 23 million units, accounting for 28% of new car sales; Europe up 20%, EVs to make up one-third of new cars. China dependency rising further.

Waymo service area crosses 1,400 sq mi, 20% expansion

5/13 combined 11-city footprint announced over 1,400 sq mi, up 20%+ from April's 1,100 sq mi, with cumulative 20M trips crossed, racing toward year-end 1M weekly trip target.

Joby 7-min JFK-Manhattan eVTOL demo flight success

Late April point-to-point electric VTOL demo from JFK to East 34th Heliport completed, passing FAA stage 4 of 5, targeting US commercial service launch in H2 2026.

17Conspiracy watch

Misinformation Watch

Pope Leo XIV deepfakes flood, Meloni AI lingerie photo, Trump China visit fake images surge
Vatican officially warns of Pope Leo XIV deepfake flood

5/21 at Vatican conference, Cardinal Mendonca warned of AI deepfake dangers. Cases include a 36-minute fake Burkina Faso video that hit 1M YouTube views before removal; hundreds of AI synthetic video accounts reported.

Italian PM Meloni personally exposes own AI synthesized lingerie photo

PM Meloni publicly criticized circulating photo of herself in lingerie as an AI deepfake false image. Shared screenshots of users who believed it real and posted derogatory comments, urging verification before sharing.

Trump China visit photos identified as AI synthesized

May Trump China visit images of holding a young Chinese girl, fist-pumping with Musk and Huang Jensen in front of CCP flag confirmed as AI-generated false images. Many synthesis markers like missing eyes and finger distortions found.

Sasha Obama MAGA hat photo is digitally manipulated fake

Viral image of Barack Obama's daughter Sasha Obama wearing a MAGA hat criticizing her father is a digitally manipulated fake. Only the hat portion was synthesized onto an original image, spreading on SNS as false content.

RFK Jr 'COVID vaccine causes gayness' video is fabricated

Viral video of HHS Secretary RFK Jr saying 'conspiracy theorists were right and COVID vaccine causes gayness' was checked by Lead Stories as audio-fabricated, with the original video containing no such statement.

⌚ Watch ahead

Looking ahead

What to watch ahead

  • Samsung provisional agreement vote 5/27 close and immediate count5/22-27 ratification vote closes 5/27 10AM, with passage determining June memory supply chain and 600M won bonus outcomes.
  • Trump Iran deal 5/26-28 official announcement imminentAfter Trump's 'mostly settled' remark, official announcement on 5/26-28 highlights Hormuz reopening and oil's $100 breakdown as this week's inflection.
  • US April PCE 5/28: Warsh first FOMC prelude5/28 April PCE (prior March headline 3.5%, core 3.2%) drives 6/16-17 Warsh first FOMC and 30Y 5% bond market direction.
  • SARB MPC 5/28: 25bp hike vs hold too closeSouth Africa April CPI rebound to 4% solidified consensus for 25bp SARB hike from 6.75% on 5/28; ZAR 16.5 defense intensifying.
  • Anthropic 30T won round late May closing$900B valuation $30B round closing week of 5/26 confirms peak of AI mega-valuation cycle as largest AI raise ever.
  • AutoZone, Zscaler 5/26 earningsAZO pre-market, ZS after-hours FY26 Q3, first big earnings event post-Memorial Day testing consumer and cybersecurity sector momentum.
  • EU MiCA transition expires 7/1Transition expiry triggers unauthorized CASP EU service shutdown 7/1, with exchanges and issuers facing last-mile authorization stress.
  • Korea 6·3 local and by-elections D-816 metropolitan heads, 14 NA seats mini general election as Lee Jae-myung government's first national referendum, with 6/3 main vote ahead.
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