Iran deal nears, oil crashes; Nikkei 65,158 record

Hanwha's Ryu Hyun-jin won 5/24 vs Doosan in Daejeon, 6⅔ innings, 2 ER, no walks, reaching 200 wins combined (KBO 122, MLB 78). First Korean 200-win pitcher since Song Jin-woo (210).

Shinsegae Chairman Chung Yong-jin will apologize 5/26 at Chosun Palace Hotel over the Starbucks Korea 5·18 'Tank Day' marketing controversy and disclose investigation findings. CEO Son Jung-hyun has already been dismissed.

Lee shared on X 5/24 the Roh Moo-hyun 17th anniversary mockery incident and ordered 'review of Ilbe-style hate site shutdowns, fines, punitive damages' at Cabinet, reigniting free speech debate.

At the 79th Cannes Festival closing (Korea time 5/24 dawn), director Park Chan-wook, the first Korean competition jury president, led 8 jurors including Demi Moore and Chloé Zhao through the closing ceremony.

National average rose $1.40 YoY to $4.56/gallon, with all 50 states clearing $4. Prolonged Hormuz blockade could push prices to a record $5.02; summer average projected at $4.80.

With enhanced premium tax credits expiring, 2026 marketplace premiums rise 26% on average, and enrollee annual premium burden jumps from $888 to $1,904, up 114%. An estimated 7.3 million enrollees will exit the market.

April at-home food prices rose 2.9% YoY, highest since August 2023. Beef roasts +18%, ground beef +14.5%, fresh tomatoes +39.7% pushed monthly food spending for a family of four to $1,430.

May power-generation natural gas wholesale rate rose 7.5% (1,255 won) MoM to 17,961 won/GJ. Industrial +10.6%, transportation +10.2%, with Middle East LNG price hikes set to cascade into SMP power tariffs.

Q3 last year, 29.6% of self-employed with financial debt exceeded 40% DSR, balance at record 1,451 trillion won since data began. Average self-employed household debt reached 124.79 million won.

Trump on 23rd said Hormuz reopening is effectively settled and an announcement is imminent. Terms include 60-day free navigation, Iran mine clearance, sanctions relief allowing oil export, with enrichment halt talks in parallel.

Netanyahu posted on X 25th 'Iran will never have nuclear weapons,' stressing final deal must require enrichment facility dismantling and nuclear material removal. 20th Trump call showed Hezbollah ceasefire clause disagreement.

Senator Graham warned a 60-day truce tilts Middle East balance toward Iran; Armed Services Chair Wicker called it a disaster. Trump dismissed them as 'losers who don't know anything.'

May MBC poll: Pyeongtaek-eul Democrat Kim Yong-nam 31%, Cho Kuk's Revolutionary Party 27%, PPP Yoo Eui-dong 17%; Busan Bukgap Democrat Ha Jung-woo 38%, independent Han Dong-hoon 33%. 14 districts in concurrent by-elections.

By mid-May 95+ Labour MPs demanded Starmer's resignation or departure schedule. 5/12 four junior ministers and 5/14 Health Secretary Streeting resigned. Starmer declared he stays, citing leadership challenge procedures not yet triggered.

57,290 workers' provisional agreement vote hit 87.93% participation by 25th afternoon, exceeding passage quorum. 27th 10AM close and immediate count will confirm 6 hundred million won memory bonus.

Meta on 20th notified 8,000 (~10% of workforce) of layoffs; combined with 6,000 rescinded postings, scale is 14,000. August and year-end additional cuts forecast; US severance 16 weeks + 2 per year applied.

TrueUp counts this year US tech layoffs at 339 events / 142,985 people; SkillSyncer at 134,603, ~993/day. Oracle 30K and Meta 8K lead, with cumulative 370K forecast for 2026.

Stanford HAI 2026 AI Index reports 22-25 year old software developer employment down ~20% since 2024. 30-40 yr seniors increased; AI skills demand in info industry expanded from 7.8% to 13.2%.

Hyundai Motor union demands 30% bonus distribution of last year's 10.36 trillion won net income, monthly base hike of 149,600 won, 100% bonus hike in June first talks. CEO cited US tariffs and Middle East risks.

After Trump installed Warsh as Fed Chair on 22nd, 30-year auction stopped at 5.058%, highest since 2007. The 10-year closed at 4.57% and 30-year at 5.08%, turning the 6/17 first FOMC into a stress test.

At Warsh's first 6/16-17 FOMC, hold odds at 3.50-3.75% measured at 65%, and Yardeni said a July hike is unavoidable for the Fed to placate bond vigilantes.

Yen closed past 159 on 22nd, two consecutive weeks of weakness, and April Tokyo core CPI slowed to a 4-year low of 1.4%, easing near-term BOJ hike pressure but reviving the 160 intervention level.

ECB held the policy rate at 2% on 4/30 for the third consecutive meeting; eurozone inflation at 3% and Q1 GDP slowed to 0.8%. Lagarde signaled judgment in 6 weeks, with a 25bp June hike to 2.25% under discussion.

DXY closed 0.28% down at 98.9645 on 25th, testing the 99 range bottom. The 4/28 April PCE release (March headline 3.5%, core 3.2%) will drive Warsh's first FOMC and bond market direction.

Japan's Nikkei 225 surged 2.87% to a record 65,158.19 on 5/25. Hormuz reopening expectations sent oil 5% lower, stoking risk appetite, with SoftBank and chip-related names leading the rally.

Taiwan Weighted Index jumped 2.9% (1,209p) to a record 43,477 on 5/25. Electronics and tech up 3.5% led, with TSMC at 40% of market cap rising 1.8% driving strength.

Last trading day 5/22 KOSPI closed at 7,847.71 (+0.41%). After 5/21 record +606p (+8.42%) settling, Nomura set targets at 11,000, Samsung 590,000 won, SK Hynix 4,000,000 won.

STOXX 600 rose 1% to 631.63 on 5/25, within 1% of February's all-time high. US-Iran peace hopes drove banks +2%, with Lufthansa +3.4% and Air France +6.2% on the 5% oil drop.

5/25 NYSE and Nasdaq closed but futures rallied on US-Iran peace talks expectations. Prior 5/22 S&P 500 closed at 7,473.47 (+0.37%) for an 8-week winning streak; normal trading resumes 5/26.

On 5/25 KOSPI hit a record 7,844.01 with daily turnover crossing 40 trillion won for the first time. Samsung Electronics + SK Hynix combined 20.569 trillion won took 43% of total, with HBM4 sold-out momentum driving.

SK Hynix (000660) as of 5/25 close has 1-month gain of 78.68%, more than double Samsung Electronics' 35.44%. 2026 forward PER at 6.79x surpassed Samsung's 6.77x for the first time, with analysts citing a leadership shift.

Tokyo 9984 closed 5/25 at ¥7,070 (+4.63%), with intraday high of ¥6,881 and DoD +11.89% jump. ARM and OpenAI exposure highlighted; 3-day cumulative ~40% rally added $61B to market cap.

AZO pre-market, ZS after-hours FY26 Q3 earnings. AutoZone prior quarter EPS $27.63; Zscaler consensus EPS $1.01, revenue $836M. First earnings momentum post-Memorial Day holiday close, in focus.

2026 K-defense export orders forecast at 3.7x 2025. Hanwha Aerospace (012450) 23.3T, Hyundai Rotem 23.2T, KAI 6.5T, LIG Nex1 (079550) 3.6T won orders becoming visible, putting the sector back in focus.

5/25 BTC opened at $76,969 and rebounded to $77,292; ETH moved $2,097→$2,112. 77K breakdown last week triggered $657M liquidations, with macro uncertainty persisting.

Since 5/14, US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $1.55B in net outflows, reducing 2026 cumulative net inflows to $536M. April's $1.97B inflow (year's largest) momentum cools sharply.

Mid-May stablecoin total market cap hit record $323.2B. USDT at $189.7B and USDC at $77.9B together hold 85% share, with global payment integration acceleration driving growth.

May on-chain RWA market cap at $34.5B, 100%+ YoY growth, with US Treasury tokens $16B, commodities $6B, asset-backed credit $3B. BlackRock, Ondo, and Circle drive institutional adoption.

ESMA confirmed MiCA 18-month transition ends 7/1, with unauthorized providers required to halt EU customer services. Violators face €5M or 5% revenue fines, with wind-down plan submissions mandatory.

Sequoia, Dragoneer, Altimeter, and Greenoaks each co-leading with ~$2B; $900B pre-money overtaking OpenAI's $852B to become highest-ever valued AI startup.

Thrive Capital and a16z led, 2x in 11 months from $30.5B to $61B. 2025 revenue at $2.2B more than 2x growth, with $20B 10-year government procurement contract also announced.

Dragoneer and Lightspeed led $1.2B Series D at $18B valuation, 3.6x from $5B in 2024. Daniel Ek-backed Munich defense AI becomes Germany's most valuable startup.

Pursuing $3-4B first external funding led by China's Big Fund 3, with $45-50B valuation. Tencent, Alibaba, Hillhouse in participation talks; main models had prices cut 75% on 25th.

Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan to underwrite ticker LIME Nasdaq listing application. 2025 revenue $886M with 29% growth but net loss $59.3M, with $846M of debt maturing within 12 months.

After construction-cone passage led to a police pursuit video going viral, freeway service was suspended in 4 cities on 5/21; Atlanta and 4 other locations also halted for flooding. Safety re-verification has formally begun.

5/19 via Dutch RDW certification reciprocity, FSD Supervised launches in Lithuania, securing EU's 2nd country entry 5 weeks after 4/10 Netherlands approval. Additional EU country dominos signaled.

Global EV Outlook 2026 released, 15% increase YoY to 23 million units, accounting for 28% of new car sales; Europe up 20%, EVs to make up one-third of new cars. China dependency rising further.

5/13 combined 11-city footprint announced over 1,400 sq mi, up 20%+ from April's 1,100 sq mi, with cumulative 20M trips crossed, racing toward year-end 1M weekly trip target.

Late April point-to-point electric VTOL demo from JFK to East 34th Heliport completed, passing FAA stage 4 of 5, targeting US commercial service launch in H2 2026.

Sequoia, Dragoneer, Altimeter, and Greenoaks co-leading with ~$2B each, closing imminent during week of 5/26. Set to overtake March's $852B OpenAI as world's most valuable AI startup.

FY27 Q1 announced 5/20 revenue $81.6B beat consensus $78.8B, data center $39.1B (+69% YoY). Q2 guidance $89.1-92.8B, $80B buyback authorization and $0.25 dividend hike also announced.

5/19 I/O launched Gemini 3.5 Flash, output token speed 4x competing frontiers. Omni is video I/O integrated multimodal, available immediately to AI Plus, Pro, and Ultra subscribers from 5/21.

Figure 03 autonomously sorted packages for 50 consecutive hours using only the onboard Helix-02 neural network, with zero teleoperation. BotQ line entered 1-per-hour mass production, with 350+ units made in 4 months.

Operating without safety monitors in Austin, Dallas, Houston; Musk announced more US city expansion this year. 17 accidents reported 2025-26. Waymo at 450K weekly rides, planning 20 metros beyond 6 current cities.

Bank Indonesia raised policy rate to 5.25% with a 50bp hike at 5/19-20 meeting, exceeding market consensus of 25bp. Imported inflation from Middle East conflict and defending the rupiah at a record 17,700/USD cited as rationale.

South African Reserve Bank announces first MPC of cycle 5/28. With 5/6 fuel price pass-through expected to push headline CPI back to 4.2%, Governor Kganyago's data-dependent stance faces a retest.

Lira hit USD 45.61 as of 5/21, recently sliding to 45.71 at a record low. TCMB raised 2026 year-end inflation forecast to 26%, acknowledging Middle East-driven energy and food shocks are delaying disinflation.

RBI conducted $5B dollar-rupee buy/sell swap auction 5/26, providing liquidity ahead of 6/3-5 MPC. 10-year sovereign yields fell 6bp to 7.03%, maintaining a 250bp spread vs US.

May-released 12-month IPCA at 4.39%, sharply down from 5.53% prior, approaching but below the 4.5% target ceiling. Copom cut Selic by 25bp to 14.50% on 4/29; the real strengthened to 4.9123.

WHO designated Bundibugyo Ebola in DRC and Uganda as PHEIC on 5/16. As of 5/21: 746 suspected cases, 176 deaths; 85 confirmed cases, 10 confirmed deaths with no approved vaccine or therapy.

Novo Nordisk oral semaglutide 25mg received FDA obesity approval. OASIS 4 trial showed average 16.6% weight loss; uninsured launched in US at $149/month.

FDA approved Lilly's Foundayo (orforglipron) for obesity on 4/1. Fastest NME approval since 2002 at 50 days from application, with 36mg achieving 11.2% weight loss over 16 months.

DOJ filed appeal in late April to the First Circuit Court of Appeals against Judge Murphy's 3/16 ruling voiding Secretary Kennedy's 13 ACIP appointments, continuing the vaccine policy overhaul.

CDC updated that HPAI A(H5N1) human infections since 1997 across 25 countries crossed 1,000 with ~48% deaths. Q1 2026 added 13 cases including a Bangladeshi pediatric death.

25th Trump signaled US-Iran deal possibility, sending Brent down 5.5% to $97.90/barrel, breaking $100 first time in a month. WTI closed at $91.01, down 5.79%.

AAA's Memorial Day weekend US national gasoline average hit $4.56/gallon, up 3 cents week-over-week and $1.38 year-over-year. Prolonged Hormuz blockade points to sustained summer highs.

With IRGC blockading Hormuz to US and Israel-bound vessels since 2/28, QatarEnergy declared force majeure on 17% of liquefaction capacity after strikes, with multi-year recovery seen. 1/5 of global LNG disrupted.

5/25 Dutch TTF gas futures fell 4.22% to €46.63/MWh. US-Iran negotiation hopes eased part of 6-week high burden, while winter inventory 96% target outlook maintained.

PJM 2026-27 capacity auction cleared at $329/MW, 11x the $28.92 of two years ago. Constellation's 20-year PPA with MS for Three Mile Island unit 1 restart, with 15 new reactors / 12GW slated for the year.

At the 79th Cannes Festival closing 5/23, Christian Mungiu's new film 'Fjord' (starring Sebastian Stan and Renate Reinsve) won the Palme d'Or; Mungiu becomes the second director to win twice, 19 years apart.

'Fjord' North American distributor NEON set a record of 7 consecutive Palme d'Or distributions. Na Hong-jin's 'Hope', which received a 7-minute standing ovation on 5/17 premiere, won no awards despite acclaim; summer Korean release planned.

Disney's 'Mandalorian and Grogu' opened at #1 with $100M domestic and $163M global Memorial Day weekend. However, lowest opening for any Star Wars since Disney's acquisition, on par with 2018's 'Solo' ($103M).

Focus and Blumhouse's 'Obsession' did $22.4M in 3 days, $28M over 4 in week 2 (+30%), setting horror's biggest-ever week-2 gain. Cumulative $58M domestic, $79.8M global on just $750K production budget.

BTS March comeback album 'ARIRANG' crossed 4M in 3 days, #1 on Hanteo weekly. BLACKPINK EP 'DEADLINE' (2/27) hit 1.77M in first week, breaking K-pop girl group sales record, with 1.46M first-day alone.

5/16 Demna covered 50 Times Square billboards with virtual Gucci ads and put street characters on runway in his first Cruise collection, evaluated as the most commercial and wardrobe-friendly debut.

5/13 first Dior Cruise 2027 at LACMA's new David Geffen Galleries. Marlene Dietrich 1949 jacket, California poppies, Philip Treacy hats fused couture with golden-age cinema.

5/14 LVMH confirmed sale of Marc Jacobs, acquired in 1997, to WHP Global and G-III Apparel for $850M. G-III invests $500M, ending a 30-year relationship as the luxury garage sale's opening salvo.

Kering Q1 revenue €3.57B, -6% reported basis; Gucci at €1.35B fell 14.3%. Saint Laurent, Bottega, Balenciaga and jewelry grew; CEO Luca de Meo's first scorecard sent shares down 10%.

At 5/24 closing Cannes, Tilda Swinton in Chanel 2026 couture, Julianne Moore in Bottega Veneta for Kering Women in Motion award, Alexa Chung in custom Dior, Kristen Stewart wore two Chanel looks.

5/21 at Vatican conference, Cardinal Mendonca warned of AI deepfake dangers. Cases include a 36-minute fake Burkina Faso video that hit 1M YouTube views before removal; hundreds of AI synthetic video accounts reported.

PM Meloni publicly criticized circulating photo of herself in lingerie as an AI deepfake false image. Shared screenshots of users who believed it real and posted derogatory comments, urging verification before sharing.

May Trump China visit images of holding a young Chinese girl, fist-pumping with Musk and Huang Jensen in front of CCP flag confirmed as AI-generated false images. Many synthesis markers like missing eyes and finger distortions found.

Viral image of Barack Obama's daughter Sasha Obama wearing a MAGA hat criticizing her father is a digitally manipulated fake. Only the hat portion was synthesized onto an original image, spreading on SNS as false content.

Viral video of HHS Secretary RFK Jr saying 'conspiracy theorists were right and COVID vaccine causes gayness' was checked by Lead Stories as audio-fabricated, with the original video containing no such statement.