2026-04 (April)
60 days of Iran conflict: From Hormuz toggle to AI's $1 trillion capital era
The genesis lay in April 1st when Trump's first national address and Foundayo's first oral GLP-1 approval converged on the same day. The progression unfolded through a Hormuz toggle—April 8 ceasefire, April 11 Islamabad breakdown, April 13 blockade, April 16 temporary opening, April 18 reclosure—that repriced every macro variable. By month-end, Brent crude soared from $61 to $114.66; S&P 500 jumped 10.4%, marking its strongest month since November 2020; KOSPI surged 31%, the best month since January 1998; Big Tech's combined capex crossed the $1 trillion threshold; Anthropic reached a $900 billion valuation, OpenAI closed a $122 billion round, and U.S. April layoffs hit 83,387 (26% AI-driven). The insight: war premium and AI capital's $1 trillion inflection converged on the same stage, with capital flooding AI while costs were asymmetrically redistributed to white-collar and energy sectors.