Monthly review
Monthly review
Published the 1st of each month. The month's defining trends and an analyst essay.
- 2026-05 (May)From war premium unwind & Brent -17% to AI capital's peak & KOSPI 8,000
The genesis came on May 4 when Trump's 'Project Freedom' escort operation reignited U.S.-Iran combat on day 65 of the Hormuz blockade, while May 8's BLS April payrolls surprise of 115K propped up an S&P 7,398 record. The progression unfolded through the May 12 CPI 3.8% and May 13 PPI 1.4% twin shocks and Kevin Warsh's 54-45 confirmation (the most divided since 1992), which drove the 30-year Treasury to a 19-year high of 5.12% and sent the KOSPI crashing -6.12% right after its first break above 8,046. By month-end, Samsung's May 18 tentative strike deal triggered a +8.42% V-shaped KOSPI rebound to close at 8,476 (+30.61%); Cerebras +108%, Anthropic's $900B round (overtaking OpenAI's $852B) and Nvidia's $81.6B revenue (+85%) marked an AI-capital peak; and on May 23 Trump declared an Iran nuclear deal 'largely negotiated,' collapsing Brent to $91 for a -17% month (the worst since 2020). The insight: the 'war premium and $1T AI capital' that locked in together in April split in May into unwind and peak respectively, accelerating the asymmetry.
- 2026-04 (April)60 days of Iran conflict: From Hormuz toggle to AI's $1 trillion capital era
The genesis lay in April 1st when Trump's first national address and Foundayo's first oral GLP-1 approval converged on the same day. The progression unfolded through a Hormuz toggle—April 8 ceasefire, April 11 Islamabad breakdown, April 13 blockade, April 16 temporary opening, April 18 reclosure—that repriced every macro variable. By month-end, Brent crude soared from $61 to $114.66; S&P 500 jumped 10.4%, marking its strongest month since November 2020; KOSPI surged 31%, the best month since January 1998; Big Tech's combined capex crossed the $1 trillion threshold; Anthropic reached a $900 billion valuation, OpenAI closed a $122 billion round, and U.S. April layoffs hit 83,387 (26% AI-driven). The insight: war premium and AI capital's $1 trillion inflection converged on the same stage, with capital flooding AI while costs were asymmetrically redistributed to white-collar and energy sectors.