Monthly · Trenri

Monthly review

Published the 1st of each month. The month's defining trends and an analyst essay.

2026-08 (August)
Nvidia-HuggingFace Deal Heatwave Disaster · BoK Hikes to 3%
August saw a concentration of mega AI infrastructure deals as Nvidia agreed to acquire HuggingFace for $12.9B and Anthropic signed a $45B computing contract with Nscale. A 122-year national temperature record of 42.5°C and 33 heat-related deaths prompted a presidential national disaster declaration. The Bank of Korea delivered back-to-back rate hikes to 3% while raising its 2026 GDP growth forecast to 3.3%, and hawkish remarks at Jackson Hole triggered a simultaneous crash in BTC and the Nasdaq.
2026-07 (July)
Iran War · Oil at $100 AI Model Showdown · KOSPI Bear Market
July was the month the US-Iran war intensified with strikes on US military bases in Jordan and Kuwait, Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping pushed Brent crude past $100, the KOSPI entered a bear market and fell 5.72% on Trump tariffs hitting 60 countries, while Claude Opus 5, GPT-5.6, and Kimi K3 launched simultaneously, and 29 nations signed the WAICO declaration as an alternative AI governance framework.
2026-06 (June)
KOSPI 9385 All-Time High Then Crash Iran MOU, Oil Reversal, AI IPO
June began with the Democratic Party sweeping 12 of 16 metropolitan seats in the June 3 local elections and SpaceX closing the largest IPO in history at $75B on June 12, while KOSPI hit a record closing high of 9,063 on June 18. The plot turned when the US-Iran MOU signed June 17 collapsed within 48 hours as Iran's Revolutionary Guard re-closed the Strait of Hormuz on June 20, followed by a US strike on Iranian nuclear facilities on June 26. KOSPI peaked at 9,385.59 intraday on June 19 before crashing a record -9.99% on June 23 to 8,203.84. By month end, Brent fell to the mid-$70s, BOJ raised to 1% (31-year high), ECB hiked 25bp, and the Fed issued a hawkish dot plot (median 3.8%). Anthropic filed a confidential S-1 at a $965B valuation and OpenAI followed suit. GPT-5.4 exceeded the human baseline on OSWorld at 75.0%. The insight is that June 2026 crammed record highs and record crashes, an MOU signed and shattered within 10 days, and twin AI IPOs all into a single month.
2026-05 (May)
From war premium unwind & Brent -17% to AI capital's peak & KOSPI 8,000
The genesis came on May 4 when Trump's 'Project Freedom' escort operation reignited U.S.-Iran combat on day 65 of the Hormuz blockade, while May 8's BLS April payrolls surprise of 115K propped up an S&P 7,398 record. The progression unfolded through the May 12 CPI 3.8% and May 13 PPI 1.4% twin shocks and Kevin Warsh's 54-45 confirmation (the most divided since 1992), which drove the 30-year Treasury to a 19-year high of 5.12% and sent the KOSPI crashing -6.12% right after its first break above 8,046. By month-end, Samsung's May 18 tentative strike deal triggered a +8.42% V-shaped KOSPI rebound to close at 8,476 (+30.61%); Cerebras +108%, Anthropic's $900B round (overtaking OpenAI's $852B) and Nvidia's $81.6B revenue (+85%) marked an AI-capital peak; and on May 23 Trump declared an Iran nuclear deal 'largely negotiated,' collapsing Brent to $91 for a -17% month (the worst since 2020). The insight: the 'war premium and $1T AI capital' that locked in together in April split in May into unwind and peak respectively, accelerating the asymmetry.
2026-04 (April)
60 days of Iran conflict: From Hormuz toggle to AI's $1 trillion capital era
The genesis lay in April 1st when Trump's first national address and Foundayo's first oral GLP-1 approval converged on the same day. The progression unfolded through a Hormuz toggle—April 8 ceasefire, April 11 Islamabad breakdown, April 13 blockade, April 16 temporary opening, April 18 reclosure—that repriced every macro variable. By month-end, Brent crude soared from $61 to $114.66; S&P 500 jumped 10.4%, marking its strongest month since November 2020; KOSPI surged 31%, the best month since January 1998; Big Tech's combined capex crossed the $1 trillion threshold; Anthropic reached a $900 billion valuation, OpenAI closed a $122 billion round, and U.S. April layoffs hit 83,387 (26% AI-driven). The insight: war premium and AI capital's $1 trillion inflection converged on the same stage, with capital flooding AI while costs were asymmetrically redistributed to white-collar and energy sectors.