Macro
Every item from Trenri daily that fell into Macro, latest first.
May 2026 Β· 72
U.S. PPI surges 1.4% MoM in April, hits 6.0% YoY for first time in three years
BLS shock: April PPI +1.4% beat consensus +0.5% by 3x. Annual +6.0% marks biggest move since December 2022. Services +1.2%, energy +7.8%.
Warsh wins Fed chair confirmation 54-45, narrowest vote on record
Senate confirms Kevin Warsh on 5/13 with only one Dem defection (Fetterman, Pa.). Faces first FOMC 6/17 amid Trump rate-cut demands.
U.S. April CPI hits 3.8%, highest since May 2023, on Iran oil shock
BLS reports 3.8% annual CPI, +0.6% monthly. Energy +17.9%, gasoline +28.4%, beef +14.8%, airfare +20.7%. Real wage growth turns negative at -0.5%.
Ten-year Treasury yield hits 4.49%, highest since July 2025, as traders price rate hikes
After PPI shock, 10-year jumps to 4.49%. 30-year breaks 5%. Traders now betting Fed rate hikes within 12 months.
Won breaks through 1,492 per dollar, dollar strength accelerates on U.S. inflation shock
USD/KRW hits 1,492.01 on 5/14. U.S. PPI-CPI combo spurs Fed rate-hike repricing, fueling dollar rally. Bank of Korea May 28 meeting in focus.
April PPI +1.4% MoM, biggest surge since March 2022
Final goods prices nearly tripled consensus +0.5%, YoY 6.0% since December 2022. Iran war gasoline +15.6% re-ignited pipeline inflation.
β¦ RELATED THESISWarsh narrowly wins Fed chair 54-45
Succeeds Powell, takes first FOMC June 16-17. Trump publicly called for rate cuts; PPI acceleration compounds policy-independence fears.
10-year Treasury 4.49%, highest in 10 months
Briefly touched 4.49% post-PPI shock, closed 4.481%. Inflation re-acceleration plus Warsh fears hit simultaneously. Risk assets pressed.
Eurozone CPI April 3.0%, highest since September 2023
Energy +10.9% pulled headline from March 2.6% to 3.0%. Gap to ECB's 2% target widens; rate-cut timeline questioned.
Bank of Korea new chief faces hawkish stress test May 28
Shin Hyun-sung takes first MPC meeting with rates at 2.5% seven consecutive holds. Signaled tightening may be needed if inflation spreads to expectations amid Middle East oil and won weakness.
U.S. April CPI +3.8% YoY, core +2.8%; highest since May 2023
Headline CPI rose +0.6% MoM and +3.8% YoY, jumping 0.5 percentage points from March's +3.3%. Core rose +0.4% MoM and +2.8% YoY, the fastest monthly core increase since January 2025. Energy gained 3.8%, accounting for more than 40% of the total increase, while gasoline rose 28.4% YoY.
β¦ RELATED THESIS10-year at 4.45%, DXY 98.29; year-end hike bets reach 30%
After the CPI shock, the 2-year yield rose 3bp to 3.98% and the 10-year rose 4bp to 4.45%. DXY gained 0.3% to 98.29. CME FedWatch showed traders lifting the probability of a Fed rate hike by year-end to roughly 30%, while equity futures fell.
Brent tops $105 as Hormuz blockade reignites inflation
WTI rose about 1% to $99.06, while Brent climbed to $105.07. Aramco's CEO warned of roughly 100 million barrels of weekly supply losses. Trump's comment that the U.S.-Iran ceasefire is fragile, plus halted Hormuz traffic, widened the risk premium and added to global inflation pressure.
β¦ RELATED THESISFed split 8-4 in April; Powell's final meeting, Warsh confirmation nears
The Fed held rates at 3.5-3.75% for a third straight meeting, but four officials dissented, including Miran's vote for a 25bp cut, marking the largest split since October 1992. The Senate Banking Committee advanced Kevin Warsh's chair nomination, setting up a floor vote in the week of May 11 and raising the possibility that the June 16-17 FOMC will be chaired by a new Fed chief.
β¦ RELATED THESISGold retreats from $4,700; BOK expected to signal tightening shift May 28
Spot gold fell 1.22% to $4,678/oz, down 16% from January's record $5,589, as investors took profits. The Bank of Korea held its policy rate at 2.5% for a seventh straight meeting in April, but markets expect new Governor Shin Hyun-song's first May 28 meeting to signal a tightening turn, with the first hike in July and a year-end rate near 3.0%.
U.S. April CPI released tonight
BLS publishes April CPI at 21:30 Korea time on May 12. Consensus: headline +0.6% month-over-month, +3.7% year-over-year; core +0.3% MoM, +2.7% YoY. Gasoline prices (March +21.2%) are the key variable.
Fed holds 3.50β3.75% with four dissents
The FOMC held rates at 3.50β3.75% on April 29; four dissents marked the largest opposition since 1992. Chair Powell's tenure ends mid-May, though he remains on the board. The dot plot signals one additional 2026 cut.
β¦ RELATED THESIS10-year Treasury yields 4.39%
The 10-year closed May 8 at 4.38%; the 2-year at 3.90%, giving a 2-10 spread of +48bp. May 11's rally to 4.39% reflected ceasefire collapse and oil rebound as bond headwinds.
ECB holds 2.00% for third straight
The ECB left deposit rates at 2.00% on April 30. Eurozone headline inflation is 3.0%; core 2.2%. Q1 GDP growth of 0.8% year-over-year disappointed. Lagarde cited mounting upside inflation and downside growth risks.
β¦ RELATED THESISBoJ holds 0.75% in 6-3 split; yen weakens
The BoJ held at 0.75% on April 28 in a 6-3 vote; three members backed a 1.0% hike. FY2026 core inflation guidance rose to 2.8% from 1.9%; growth slashed to 0.5% from 1.0%. Japan-U.S. rate gap of ~300bp keeps the yen under pressure. DXY traded near 97.84.
β¦ RELATED THESISFed holds steady at 3.50β3.75%; sees only one 2026 cut
The Federal Reserve held April 29, maintaining the 3.50β3.75% range. One dissenter (Miran) pushed for a 25bp cut; three others opposed easing. The Summary of Economic Projections signaled just one rate cut for all of 2026.
β¦ RELATED THESISApril jobs report: 115,000 vs. 55,000 consensus
Non-farm payroll gains hit 115,000 in April, crushing the 55,000 consensus but slowing from March's 185,000. Jobless rate held 4.3%; wage growth came in at 3.6% YoY, below the 3.8% forecast.
β¦ RELATED THESISECB holds, signals June hike discussion forthcoming
The ECB held its deposit rate at 2.00% unanimously April 30, though President Lagarde confirmed rate-hike deliberations were "substantive." Eurozone April inflation spiked to 3.0%, spurring markets to price June-July hike odds.
β¦ RELATED THESISBank of Korea signals rate-hike consideration; May 28 is the test
Bank of Korea held its benchmark rate at 2.5% for a seventh consecutive month in April, but a senior official signaled May 4 it was "time to consider rate hike." Incoming Governor Shin's May 28 debut meeting will be the inflection point.
Ten-year yields 4.38%; DXY softens 1%
On May 8, the US 10-year yield closed at 4.38%; 2-year at 3.90%; 30-year at 4.95%. The dollar index fell 0.23% to 97.84, down 0.99% over the past month, approaching pre-conflict levels.
BoJ holds at 0.75%; yen near 162 pressure points
Bank of Japan held its policy rate at 0.75% April 28 via a 6-3 split vote, downgrading 2026 growth to 0.5% from 1.0% while lifting core inflation to 2.8% from 1.9%. The yen trades near 162, facing depreciation pressure; markets expect another July hike.
β¦ RELATED THESISUS CPI preview: 3.7% headline on May 12
April CPI due 8:30 ET May 12 is expected to show 0.6% MoM and 3.7% YoY. March saw a 0.9% MoM jumpβthe largest since June 2022βas energy spiked. The base year resets to December 2024.
β¦ RELATED THESISU.S. April Non-Farm Employment 115,000; Double Consensus But Momentum Slows
April non-farm employment added 115,000, exceeding Dow Jones consensus of 55,000, but declined from 185,000 in March. Unemployment remained at 4.3%. Hourly wages rose 0.2% month-over-month and 3.6% year-over-year, both below expectations (0.3% and 3.8%).
Trump Issues July 4 Ultimatum to EU; Threatens 25% Auto Tariff Increase
Trump warned the EU that failure to ratify a trade agreement by July 4 would result in 'much higher' tariffs and reconfirmed 25% tariffs on EU vehicles and trucks. The next U.S.-EU trade negotiation is scheduled for May 10.
BOJ Holds Policy Rate at 0.75%; Maintains Highest Level Since 1995
The Bank of Japan voted 6-3 to hold its policy rate at 0.75% in April, the highest since September 1995. Inflation forecasts were revised upward amid Middle East-driven energy price spikes.
β¦ RELATED THESISChina's PBOC Holds Benchmark LPR Steady for 11 Consecutive Months
The People's Bank of China held both one-year and five-year LPRs unchanged for 11 consecutive months, preserving policy ammunition. Q1 GDP grew 5.0%, with 2026 targets set at 4.5β5%.
U.S. March Headline PCE at 3.5%; Oil Surge Shakes Disinflationary Path
Per Treasury TBAC, March headline PCE rose to 3.5% year-over-year, up 1.1 percentage points from 2.4% a year earlier. Core CPI moderated to 2.6%. Q1 2026 gasoline prices surged 21.2%, reigniting inflation pressure.
β¦ RELATED THESISFederal Reserve Maintains Policy Rate at 3.50β3.75%
The FOMC unanimously held the policy rate at 3.50β3.75%. Eight members voted in favor; four dissented, with Miran preferring a 25bp cut and Hammack, Kashkari, and Logan opposing accommodative language. This marks the highest dissent count since late 1992.
β¦ RELATED THESISU.S. March Nonfarm Payroll +178K; Unemployment at 4.3%
BLS data for March showed nonfarm employment gains of 178,000 with unemployment steady at 4.3%. Growth concentrated in healthcare, construction, and transportation/warehousing; federal government headcount declined.
Initial Jobless Claims Rise to 200K; Four-Week Average at 203,250
For the week ending 5/2, initial jobless claims reached 200,000, up 10,000 from the prior week. The four-week moving average stands at 203,250, down 4,500. Despite Big Tech workforce reductions tied to AI infrastructure investment, the broader labor market remains resilient.
Norges Bank Delivers Surprise 25bp Rate Hike to 4.25%
Norges Bank raised the policy rate to 4.25% on 5/7, a 25bp increase. Bloomberg survey respondents had expected a hold; only 5 of 17 anticipated a hike. This marks Western Europe's first tightening since the Iran war erupted.
β¦ RELATED THESISU.S. 10-Year Yield Declines to 4.34%; 30-Year at 4.93%
On 5/7, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield fell 2bp to 4.34%, with 30-year yields at 4.93%. Oil price declines and the trade court tariff ruling reduced inflation expectations, drawing buying interest.
FOMC Splits 8-4 on May 29; First Time Since 1992 Four Dissents
The Federal Reserve maintained the target range at 3.50β3.75%. Lael Brainard and Neel Kashkari dissented on dovish grounds, while Beth Hammack and TomΓ‘s Kalikaki opposed easing, marking a historic shift in dissent patterns.
U.S. April Layoffs Total 83,000, Up 38% Monthly; Year-to-Date Trend Down 50%
While April separations spiked in tech-driven restructurings, cumulative first-quarter layoff announcements remain 50% below year-ago levels due to generous severance packages suppressing unemployment claims, which stayed below 230,000.
U.S.-China Tariffs Average 33% Through August
Average effective tariff comprises 3.4% MFN rate plus Section 301, IEEPA fentanyl (20%), and reciprocal tariffs (10%), totaling 33% weighted average. Trump is coordinating a May visit to Beijing with Xi Jinpingβthe first presidential visit in eight years.
Brent Crude at $106.52; $44 Higher Than Year-Ago Levels
On May 6, Brent declined $10.03 from prior close. EIA forecasts Q2 average peaking near $115 before gradual stabilization.
South Korea GDP Growth Forecast Improves to 2.0% for 2026; Recovery from 1.2% in 2025
ING cites political stability and semiconductor demand driving South Korea's recovery outlook, though real estate weakness and external demand headwinds present downside risks.
Fed Maintains Policy Rates at 3.50-3.75%; Record Post-1992 Dissent
The most dissenting votes since 1992 in this meeting signal policy path divergence. JPMorgan expects additional holds through year-end.
β¦ RELATED THESISU.S. Core PCE at 3.2%, Headline PCE at 3.5%; Inflation Remains Sticky
University of Michigan one-year inflation expectations rose to 4.8%. Fed officials characterize recent data as 'bad news.'
New Jobless Claims at 200,000; Labor Market Stable
Week ending May 2: new claims at 200,000 (vs. 205,000 expected), beating expectations. Continuing claims at 1.766 million, the lowest since January 2024.
Eurozone GDP Grows 0.1% QoQ; Inflation Rebounds to 3.0%, Stagflation Risks Rising
Eurozone growth slows to 0.1% while inflation rebounds to 3.0%, deepening policy dilemma for the ECB.
South Korea's April CPI Hits 21-Month High; Oil-Driven Spillovers
South Korea's April consumer price growth reached a 21-month high amid U.S.-Iran tensions, spreading across transportation, travel, and general living costs.
β¦ RELATED THESISFed maintains policy rate at 3.50-3.75%
Most dissenting votes since 1992, indicating deepening policy divisions.
Headline CPI 3.3% YoY, core 2.6%
PCE at 3.5% and core PCE at 3.2%, showing more persistent inflation.
Quarterly core PCE accelerates to 4.3%
Short-term inflation expectations also rising to 4.8% in one-year Michigan survey.
Fed Chair Powell's tenure ends May 15
April FOMC is the final meeting; successor selection becomes a market variable.
Iran-originating oil prices are the macro switch
Oil price stability supports earnings and AI momentum; renewed increases trigger stagflation concerns.
Fed Maintains Policy Rates at April FOMC Meeting
The Federal Reserve held policy rates steady at 3.50β3.75% at its April 29 FOMC meeting, marking the third consecutive hold.
Core PCE at 3.2%, Core CPI at 2.6%βBoth Above Target
Core PCE inflation remains at 3.2% year-over-year and Core CPI at 2.6%, both persisting above the Fed's 2% target and fueling hawkish sentiment.
Oil Price Surge of 76% Introduces Inflation Transmission Variable
Oil prices rose 76% between late February and early April, prompting mixed Fed assessments regarding the degree of pass-through to core inflation.
Dimon and Warsh Warn on Credit Cycle and Bond Volatility Risks
JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon and Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh have flagged credit cycle and bond market volatility risks, emphasizing the need for careful positioning.
U.S. Gasoline Averages $4.46 per GallonβFour-Year High
Gasoline prices have risen $1.47 per gallon since the start of the Iran conflict, reaching $4.46 per gallon and nearing four-year highs.
Fed Holds at 3.5-3.75% With Rare 8-4 Dissent
The FOMC voted for a third consecutive hold, but dissenters called for a 25 basis point cut and three members opposed forward rate-cut language. The 4-dissent count marks the first instance since October 1992.
Powell's Tenure Expires in May; Walsh Confirmation Imminent
Fed Chair Jay Powell's term concludes in May. Kevin Walsh faces Senate confirmation on May 11th and is expected to chair the June 16-17 FOMC meeting.
April Non-Farm Employment Consensus Weakens
Economists expect April new job additions of 55,000-70,000 and a stable 4.3% unemployment rateβa sharp decline from March's 178,000. Release scheduled for May 8th.
March CPI Accelerates to 3.3% Year-Over-Year
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported March CPI at 3.3%, up from January's 2.4%, driven by energy and transportation components.
March JOLTs: Job Openings Hold at 6.9M
March job openings remained flat at 6.9 million; hires increased to 5.6 million while layoffs stayed stable at 1.9 million.
Fed FOMC Holds at 3.5%-3.75%; Unprecedented Dissent
The largest number of dissenting votes since October 1992. One member voted for a cut; three opposed dovish language.
Core PCE at 3.2%; Core CPI at 2.6%βBoth Above Target
Headline PCE reached 3.5% in March, reflecting energy price pressures. Analysts monitor the transmission of the 60% oil price increase to core inflation.
Barclays Raises 2026 Brent Outlook to $85-$100 per Barrel
Oil supply uncertainty persists, with crude reaching $114.66 per barrel on April 30.
World Bank April Outlook: 2026 Energy +24%; Emerging Market Inflation 5.1%
Middle East conflict represents the largest commodity shock since Russia's 2022 Ukraine invasion, transmitting an additional 1 percentage point to emerging market inflation.
U.S. New Mortgage Rate Averages 6.37%; Up 7 Basis Points
Geopolitical tensions and sticky inflation prevent entry into the sub-6% range, with mid-range rates forecast through summer.
Fed Holds at 3.50β3.75% on April 29, Records First 8-4 Dissent Since 1992
Economic activity remains solid, employment has moderated, and inflation is characterized as elevated owing to energy shocks. Historic four-member dissent signaled policy discord.
Barclays Raises 2026 Brent Forecast to $100β¦Could Reach $110 Under Adverse Scenarios
Upward revision from prior $85 guidance. Protracted Hormuz disruptions could trigger $110 pricing under worst-case assumptions.
Iran War Powers Resolution 60-Day Deadline Arrives May 1
Congressional debate centers on whether the 60-day window commenced April 29 or May 1, with implications for War Powers enforcement and further military authorization.
EIA Projects 2026 Q2 Average Brent at $115 per Barrel
Projection assumes gradual supply relief. April OPEC production shutdowns total 9.1 million barrels daily across six member nations.
US Average Gasoline at $4.30, Four-Year High
Per AAA, May 1 reading stands at $4.30, with select measurements reaching $4.39. Household discretionary income faces pronounced pressure.
April 2026 Β· 148
Q1 GDP 2.0%, Accelerating from Q4 2025's 0.5%
BEA advance estimate released. Investment, exports, consumption, and government spending all expanded; nominal GDP grew 5.64% to reach $31.856T. However, fell short of consensus 2.3%.
PCE Inflation at 4.5%, Largest Quarterly Acceleration in Years
Q1 2026 PCE deflator surged from Q4's 2.9% to 4.5%, more than double the Federal Reserve's 2% target. Quarterly acceleration marks the largest in years.
FOMC on Hold, 8-4 Split Marks Largest Dissent Since 1992
Federal Reserve held federal funds rate at 3.5-3.75% on April 29. Miran advocated for 25bp cut; three members opposed guidance on future cuts. First four-dissent decision in 32 years.
Initial Jobless Claims 189K, Lowest Since 1969
Claims for week ending April 25 declined 26K to 189K, significantly below consensus of 212K. Two-year low for continuing claims at 1.766M.
Average US Tariff Rate Steady at 11.8%; CAPE Refund System Activated
April average tariff rate remains 11.8% despite Supreme Court's partial IEEPA ruling. CBP activated CAPE system on April 20, beginning processing of IEEPA refund requests.
FOMC Votes to Hold Rates at 3.5-3.75%
Economic activity remains solid but employment is flat; inflation faces upward pressure from energy prices. The Fed explicitly cited Middle Eastern uncertainty.
FOMC Records Four DissentsβHighest Disagreement Since 1992
Governor Miran voted for a rate cut; three others opposed the easing bias language in the statement. Powell's final meeting ended in visible division.
ECB Holds Deposit Rate at 2%; Acknowledges Escalating Risks
The ECB maintained its 2% deposit rate while explicitly acknowledging that Middle Eastern conflict has heightened economic risks for the eurozone.
BOJ Holds at 0.75%; 6-3 Split with Hawkish Dissenters
In its April 27-28 meeting, the BOJ maintained its policy rate at 0.75%. However, three board members advocated for a 1% increase, signaling hawkish dissent.
Initial Jobless Claims: 189,000 for Week Ending April 25
Initial jobless claims fell to 189,000 for the week ending April 25, down 26,000. The insured unemployment rate stands at 1.2%, signaling labor market stability.
FOMC 4/29 Hold Imminent β 8-4 Dissent Possible; Largest Since 1992
Fed funds rate 3.50β3.75% maintenance priced at 100%. Miran favors 25bp cut; Hammack, Kashkari, Logan oppose dovish guidance. Chair Powell's final meeting.
World Bank β 2026 Energy Surge 24%; Highest Since 2022
4/28 Commodity Outlook: Middle East conflict represents largest four-year energy price shock. Hormuz blockade implies 10 million barrel-per-day supply disruption.
USTR 4/28-29 Forced Labor Tariff Hearing β 60 Nations, Section 301 Review
Trump administration investigating non-compliance with forced labor import bans across 60 economies. Follows 4/2 Section 232 announcement (steel/aluminum/copper restructuring; branded drugs capped at 100%) escalating pressure.
U.S. Average Effective Tariff Rate 11.8% β Tax Foundation
Restructured after February 2026 Supreme Court ruling on IEEPA tariff illegality. Rate settled at 11.8%, down from 2025 peak but still at highest level since the 1980s.
China Q1 GDP 5.0% β Industrial Output 6.1%; Export Strength
NBS announcement (4/16): Q1 GDP 33.4 trillion yuan ($4.9T), YoY 5.0%, accelerating from 4.5% in Q4 2025. However, 'strong supply/weak demand' imbalance flagged.
FOMC Maintains Rates at 3.5%-3.75% with Four Dissents
The FOMC voted to hold the benchmark rate at 3.5%-3.75%. Four officials (Musalem, Hammack, Kashkari, Logan) dissented in favor of a 25-basis-point cut.
March Nonfarm Payrolls Rise 178,000; Jobless Rate 4.3%
Nonfarm payroll employment grew by 178,000 in March, exceeding consensus, while the unemployment rate ticked slightly lower to 4.3%, confirming underlying labor market strength.
BOJ Maintains 0.75% Rate with Hawkish Dissents; 6-3 Split
The Bank of Japan held policy rates at 0.75% in its April 27-28 meeting, but three officials dissented in favor of rate increases, marking a hawkish hold with a 6-3 split.
Trump Average Tariff Rate: 11.8% After Court Adjustments
Following partial Supreme Court invalidation and adjustments, the effective average tariff rate in April stands at 11.8%.
USTR Holds Forced Labor Hearings for 60 Economies
The USTR will conduct Section 301 hearings April 28-29 on forced labor goods imported from 60 trading partners.
Eurozone April Inflation Jumps to 3%; Energy Drives Increase
Eurozone April flash inflation spiked to 3%. The ECB noted simultaneous upside inflation and downside growth risks have intensified.
Fed Expected to Hold at 3.5%-3.75% on April 29
The FOMC is likely to maintain the benchmark at 3.5%-3.75%. Board member Miran voted against a 25bp cut, and Federal Reserve presidents from Cleveland, Minneapolis, and Dallas also dissented.
ECB Projects 2026 Inflation at 2.6%
The ECB projects 2026 inflation at 2.6% with moderation expected in 2027, maintaining the main refinancing rate at 2.15%, the deposit rate at 2%, and the marginal lending rate at 2.4%.
U.S. Initial Jobless Claims: 214,000
For the week ending April 18, initial jobless claims totaled 214,000 (up 6,000 from the prior week). The following week claims fell to 189,000, reaching the lowest level since 1969.
UN Secretary-General Warns of Global Food Emergency
UN Secretary-General Guterres warned that the U.S.-Israel war with Iran could trigger sharply elevated fuel, fertilizer, and commodity prices, potentially sparking a global food emergency.
US March CPI +3.3% β Highest in Roughly Two Years
Rising global energy prices reignite inflation.
Fed April Meeting Expected to Hold Steady β Potential 8-4 Split
Target rate expected to remain at 3.50-3.75%; some members prefer 25bp rate cut.
IMF: 2026 Global Growth at 3.1% β Below Pre-Pandemic Average
Emerging market inflation resurgence and growth deceleration converge.
US March Payrolls: 178K Added β Unemployment at 4.3%
Healthcare, construction, and transportation lead solid hiring; April forecast at 67K.
Korea April Consumer Inflation Reaches 21-Month High
Iran-conflict-driven oil spike passes through to transportation, travel, and household expenses.
Fed Expected to Hold Rates at 3.50β3.75% in April
Four committee members dissenting in favor of a cutβmost dissents since 1992. May be Powell's final meeting.
March Nonfarm Payroll Growth Moderates to +178K
Unemployment ticks down to 4.3%; ADP private payroll growth estimate for April: +40K.
South Korea Passes $1.77B Supplementary Budget on April 10
Measure designed to absorb U.S.βIran conflict impact; 70% of crude oil sourced from Middle East.
Global Crude Supply Disruption Reaches Record -10.1mb/d
March production fell to 97mb/dβthe largest disruption on record. Hormuz transit curbs ongoing.
South Korea Q1 Exports Hit Record High
AI semiconductor demand drives commodity exports at fastest pace since Q2 2021.
Fed Holds Rates at 3.5-3.75% for Third Consecutive Meeting
The Fed maintained policy rates at 3.5-3.75% at its April meeting amid persistent inflation and upcoming leadership transition, with four dissenting votes in what is a rare occurrence near the end of Chair Powell's term.
Oil Surges 76% from Late February to Early April, Reigniting Inflation Concerns
Brent crude rose more than 76% between late February and early April, emerging as a key variable driving the Fed's return to cautious positioning.
Eurozone April CPI Accelerates to 3.0% from March's 2.6%
Energy costs surged 10.9%, the largest increase since February 2023, pushing eurozone CPI from 2.6% in March to 3.0% in April. The ECB maintained rates at 2%.
ServiceNow Q1 Subscription Revenue +22%, RPO $27.7 Billion
ServiceNow reported first-quarter subscription revenue of $3.671 billion, up 22% year-over-year, with EPS of $0.97 surpassing consensus of $0.80 by 21%. AI commitments are projected at $1.5 billion for 2026.
World Bank Warns of Largest Energy Price Shock in Four Years
The World Bank's Commodity Markets Outlook cautions that Middle East escalation could trigger the largest energy price surge since 2022.
IMF April WEO Formalizes 'War Shadow' Scenario
Base case 3.1%, severe scenario 2.0% growth and 6%+ inflation.
Brent Crude Enters $95 Territory; 650 Million Barrel Cumulative Loss
Energy infrastructure attacks and Hormuz transit constraints disrupt 13 million barrels per day.
U.S. Credit Card Debt Surpasses $1.2 Trillion
25% of borrowers rely on cards for everyday expenses; household resilience weakens.
Emerging Market Growth Revised Down 0.3pp to 3.9%
Energy-importing nations face IMF pressure; currency and fiscal flexibility limited.
Social Security 2026 COLA at 2.8%; FY Inflation at 3.01%
Wage adjustment moderates amid persistent price pressure.
Fed April meeting expected to hold steady (official decision April 29)
Federal funds rate projected to remain at 3.5β3.75% for a third consecutive meeting. While Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, Kansas City's Beth Hammack, and Dallas's Lorie Logan support a pause, some call for rate cuts; however, most oppose dovish language modifications.
U.S. CPI March headline month-on-month: +0.9%; gasoline +21.2%
Largest monthly increase since June 2022. Gasoline alone posted a 21.2% increase, the largest single-month surge in BLS records since 1967.
IMF World Economic Outlook April: 'Global Economy in the Shadow of Conflict'
Released during the April 14 Spring Meetings, the report reflects Middle East energy shocks with downward revisions to emerging market growth forecasts.
U.S. average tariff rate settles at 11.8%
Following the February 2026 Supreme Court ruling that tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act were unlawful, adjustments were made. Finished aluminum, steel, and copper products carry 50% rates; derivatives, 25%.
One-year inflation expectations surge 100 basis points to 4.8%
March: 3.8%; April: 4.8%, exceeding consensus of 4.2%. Largest monthly move since April 2025.
Fed Pauses at 3.5-3.75% on April 29; Four Dissents (Highest Since 1992)
Balancing tariff and energy-driven inflation against labor market softening, the Fed recorded the most dissents since 1992.
March Payrolls +178K; Unemployment Stable at 4.3%
Gains centered on healthcare, construction, and transportation. Unemployment expected to hover at 4.2-4.3% through April.
JOLTS: 6.9M Job Openings; 0.95 Unemployed per Opening
March data showed 6.9M job openings, 5.6M hires, and 5.4M separations, indicating labor market stabilization. Unemployment-to-opening ratio ticked up from 0.91 to 0.95.
April Layoff Announcements Hit 83,387; Up 38% Month-over-Month
Challenger data recorded 83K announced cuts in April, up 38% from March but down 21% year-over-year. AI-related big-tech reductions drove the increase.
30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate at 6.30%, Down 46bps Year-over-Year
Late-April average fixed rate reached 6.30% with 1.23M inventory. Fannie Mae forecasts year-end at 5.7%.
Fed Holds Rates; Four Policymakers Vote Against Status Quoβ1992 Record for Dissent
The FOMC held its policy rate at 3.5-3.75% in April, with Cleveland's Hammack, Minneapolis's Kashkari, Dallas's Logan and Vice Chair Isaacs all dissenting against the holdβthe highest dissent count since 1992.
U.S. March CPI Accelerates to 3.3% Year-over-Year; Energy Surges 12.5%
U.S.-Israel-Iran tensions and Strait of Hormuz blockade drove energy prices up 12.5% annually, pushing headline CPI to 0.9% month-over-month and 3.3% year-over-year, far exceeding the Fed's 2% target.
White House Formalizes Up to 245% China Tariffs; Trade Friction Accelerates
The White House codified cumulative tariffs on select Chinese goods reaching 245% as of April 17, marking the apex of second-term trade tensions as retaliatory cycles perpetuated throughout the month.
U.S. Gasoline Averages $4.30, Diesel $5.80 Per GallonβApril Monthly Peak
EIA data pegged April U.S. retail gasoline at roughly $4.30 per gallon and diesel at $5.80+, marking monthly highs. Global oil supply fell 10.1 million barrels per day in Marchβa record disruptionβdriven by Strait blockade and Middle East infrastructure damage.
Bank Indonesia Rate Hold Consensus; South Korea Faces Fiscal Pivot
All 31 economists in a Reuters poll expect Bank Indonesia to hold at 4.75%, while Seoul navigates supplemental budgets and tax shortfalls, redirecting capital from domestic property to domestic equity and innovation amid consumption weakness.
Fed Holds Policy Rate at 3.50β3.75% (April 29)
FOMC held rates steady April 29; only one dissenter called for a -25bp cut. Energy-driven inflation and stable employment push near-term rate cut odds into the second half.
NY Fed SCE: One-Year Inflation Expectations at 3.6%
New York Fed's Survey of Consumer Expectations shows one-year inflation rising 20 basis points to 3.6%. Long-term anchors remain stable, signaling near-term inflation repricing.
BLS March Employment: +178,000, Unemployment at 4.3%
Nonfarm payrolls added 178,000 jobs in March; unemployment rate held at 4.3% (7.2 million). Healthcare, construction, and transportation drove gains; federal employment declined.
World Bank Commodity Outlook: Energy Prices Rise 24%
World Bank's April Commodity Markets Outlook projects 2026 energy prices 24% higherβthe steepest rise since the 2022 Ukraine invasion.
Global Equity Funds See Fourth Straight Week of Inflows (Through April 15)
Global equity funds posted four consecutive weeks of net inflows through April 15, buoyed by solid earnings reports and ceasefire optimism.
Fed officials appear at Washington Economic Festival global macro session
On April 17, Federal Reserve board member Stephen Miran participated in a global macro panel at the Fed's Washington Economic Festival. Michael Barr spoke at a rural investment conference the same day.
BOJ votes 6-to-3 to hold rates at 0.75%
Takata, Tamura, and Nakagawa dissented in favor of a 1.0% increase. Despite energy concerns from the Iran conflict, the BOJ maintained its highest rate since September 1995.
ECB holds policy rate at 2.15% on April 30
The deposit rate stands at 2.0% and the marginal lending rate at 2.4%. The central bank took a wait-and-see stance amid Middle Eastern inflation concerns and growth weakness.
March nonfarm payrolls add 178k; unemployment holds at 4.3%
The March BLS report showed nonfarm employment up 178k, with healthcare accounting for 76k and ambulatory care services for 54k. The labor force participation rate held at 61.9%.
Fed projects 'modest' Q1 GDP growth as immigration restrains labor supply
Q1 GDP growth appears modest, with business investment offsetting consumer weakness. The sharp decline in net immigration during 2025 is restraining both population and labor-force growthβa policy variable.
Fed Positioned to Hold Rates at 3.5β3.75%, Setting Up April 29 Showdown
The FOMC signaled an 8-4 split hold at 3.5β3.75%. The dissent tallyβthe highest since October 1992βhints at dovish pressure. This meeting may be Chair Powell's last.
U.S. March CPI Accelerates to 3.3% YoY, Energy Jumps 10.9%
March CPI rose 3.3% year-on-year, up from 2.4% in February. Month-on-month, inflation hit 0.9%, with energy surging 10.9% and gasoline the prime driver. Food prices held steady.
U.S. Adds 178K Non-Farm Jobs in March; Jobless Rate at 4.3%
The BLS reported 178,000 non-farm job gains in March with a 4.3% unemployment rate. Healthcare, construction, and transportation led the surge; federal employment declined.
JPMorgan Q1 EPS $5.94, Bond Trading Revenue Surges 21%
JPMorgan posted Q1 EPS of $5.94 (vs. consensus $5.45) on $50.54 billion revenue (+10%). Fixed-income trading jumped 21% to $7.08 billion, though net interest income guidance was lowered to $103 billion.
Wells Fargo Q1 Net Income $5.3B, EPS $1.60
Wells Fargo delivered Q1 net income of $5.3 billion and diluted EPS of $1.60, supported by cost discipline and rebounding fee revenue.
IMF 'Shadow of War' Report; Global Growth at 3.1%, U.S. Slowing
The IMF released 'Global Economy in the Shadow of War' on April 14, projecting 3.1% global growth in 2026 and 3.2% in 2027, both downward revisions. India's labor and regulatory reforms are expected to offset near-term fiscal deficits. The U.S. remains solid but faces deceleration risks.
March U.S. CPI +3.3%; Core +2.6% Widens Divergence
Headline inflation of 3.3% year-over-year is the highest since April 2024, driven by war-related energy shocks. Core inflation remains anchored at 2.6%, creating policy signal conflict as the April 29 FOMC approaches.
JPMorgan Q1 Net Income Up 13% to $16.5B; EPS $5.94
JPMorgan reported Q1 net income of $16.5 billion (up 13%) with EPS of $5.94 versus consensus $5.45. Revenue rose 10% to $50.5 billion. However, the bank trimmed 2026 net interest income guidance to approximately $103 billion from $104.5 billion.
Goldman Sachs Q1 Equities Trading at Record; Net Income $5.63B
Goldman delivered Q1 EPS of $17.55 versus consensus $16.49, with revenue of $17.23 billion beating consensus $16.97 billion. Net income climbed 19% to $5.63 billion. FICC trading missed at $4.01 billion, down 10%, across rates, MBS, and credit.
USTR Section 301 Comment Period Closes April 15; China 50% Tariff Threat
USTR closed its comment period April 15 for Section 301 investigations into 16 countries including China, EU, India, Japan, and South Korea. Trump threatened 50% tariffs on China on April 13, citing reports of air defense systems supplied to Iran. Section 232 automotive parts procedure also closed April 14.
Core CPI 2.6%, Shelter 3.0%
March's headline CPI of 3.3% was tempered by core inflation (ex-food and energy) at 2.6%; shelter rose 3.0%. Markets bet April 14 on an energy-driven transitory scenario.
Fed Holds in April: 8β4 Vote, Highest Dissent Since 1992
At its April 29 meeting, the Fed held rates at 3.50β3.75%. Governor Michele Miran dissented in favor of a 25bp cut; three officials objected to the statement language. Four dissents mark the first such count since October 1992.
IMF Downgrades Global Growth, Upgrades Inflation
The IMF's April 14 WEO revision reflects Middle East conflict and energy supply disruption, cutting growth forecasts while lifting inflation estimates.
Weekly Jobless Claims Remain in Healthy 200K Range
Initial claims through April 11 came in at 207Kβnormal levels. For the week ending April 25, claims dropped to 189K, the lowest since September 1969, signaling continued labor market stability.
Effective Tariff Rate Hits 11.8%; Semiconductor Levies Loom
Commerce Secretary Raimondo told ABC's 'This Week' on April 13 that electronics exemptions are temporary and semiconductor tariffs will arrive within months. Trump threatened 50% additional tariffs on China the same day.
IMF WEO: Global growth cut to 3.1% for 2026
War clouds loom over trade, AI, and financial shocks. China 4.5%, EU 0.9%.
U.S. GDP 2026 forecast slashed from 2.4% to 1.7%
RSM downgrade. WSJ economist survey: 33% probability of 12-month recession, up from January.
Core PCE March at 3.2% YoY; FOMC poised for April 29 hold
Energy inflation reignites. Fed vote split 8β4, widest dissent since October 1992.
Dollar weakness fuels emerging-market currency rally
Bank of America: 2026 sees 4Γ outflow of U.S. to foreign assets. South Korea foreign inflows swing to β©1.13T buy in April.
U.S. labor-market warning: quits rate at 1.9%, lowest since 2020
Participation rate 61.9%. Hiring and layoffs both coolingβsignals of a frozen labor market.
U.S. March CPI +3.3% YoYβTwo-Year High
BLS April 10 release: energy drove the bulk of gains. Market consensus shifted from pricing cuts this year to zero cuts, potentially into 2027.
Weekly S&P 500 Rally: +3.6% Best Week
April 10 close: S&P 500 at 6,816.89 (-0.11% daily), but +3.6% weeklyβbest week since November. Nasdaq +4.7%, Dow +3%, led by NVIDIA and Broadcom.
JPMorgan Q1 EPS $5.94 Beats
April 14 earnings: Q1 net income $16.49B (+13% YoY), revenue $50.54B vs. consensus $49.17B. Trading revenue +21%, investment banking fees +28%. Full-year NII guidance cut to $103B from $104.5B.
Iran Ceasefire, Eight Days In: Crude -16.5%
Post-ceasefire announcement April 8, WTI crude futures crashed ~16.5% to $94/barrel, down from $117 peak.
EU ETS Emissions -1.3%, Decarbonization on Track
April 10 EU Commission disclosure: 2025 validated ETS emissions down 1.3% year-over-year. Shipping -3%, power -0.4%. 2030 target of -62% remains on trajectory.
U.S. March CPI: 3.3% YoY, 0.9% MoM
Year-over-year CPI rose to 3.3%, month-over-month 0.9%. Energy climbed 10.9%, with gasoline alone up 21.2%, explaining roughly 75% of monthly inflation. Core CPI remained anchored at 0.2% MoM and 2.6% YoY.
Stephens: Iran-Driven Inflation 'Just Beginning'
Stephens and Purdue analysis warns that March CPI 'remains early innings,' with food, transportation, and finished-goods price passthrough likely to accumulate over coming months.
IMF April WEO: Global Economy 'Tested Again'
Released ahead of the IMF spring meetings, the April WEO chapter titled 'Global Economy Tested Again' signals downward growth revisions amid Iran conflict, tariff uncertainty, and interest-rate environment headwinds.
U.S. March PPI: 0.5% MoM, 4.0% YoY
Final-demand PPI for March (released April 14) rose 0.5% month-over-month and 4.0% year-over-year. As of April 11, March PPI represents the most recent available data point.
U.S. April Jobs: Economist Consensus +55Kβ67K, 4.3% Unemployment
The economist consensus expects April nonfarm payroll growth of 55,000 to 67,000 jobs and a 4.3% unemployment rate, representing a sharp deceleration from March's 178,000. April employment data releases May 8.
U.S. March CPI 3.3%, April FOMC pause locked in
Gasoline 21.2% surge carries headline; core at 2.6% annually. April 28-29 meeting priced at 0% rate-cut odds.
IMF April WEO: 2026 growth 3.1%, inflation 4.4%
Near-term war assumption lifts global growth downward by 0.1 percentage point; energy +19% assumption. Downside risks skew one-way.
ECB holds steady in April; June hike moves into focus
Deposit rate 2.0%, main refinancing 2.15% unchanged. Eurozone inflation accelerates to 3% in April despite growth concerns keeping rates flat.
Dollar weakens; EM and tech stocks rally
April 9 ceasefire hopes trigger risk-on rotation. Korean and Japanese tech lead gains; emerging-market currencies bounce.
U.S. March nonfarm payroll +178,000; unemployment 4.3%
April 3 release. Healthcare, construction, and transport drive gains; labor market shows modest softening. April data due May 8.
IMF WEO: 2026 global growth cut to 3.1%
Iran war and Hormuz closure are now core assumptions in Chapter 1. Inflation seen edging higher this year, then softening in 2027.
BLS: March nonfarm payrolls +178K, jobless rate 4.3%
The April 3 employment report crushed consensus (+59K), with healthcare, construction, and transport leading gains. Hourly pay up 0.2% month-on-month and 3.5% year-on-year.
JPMorgan Q1 EPS $5.94; trading hits record $11.6B
First-quarter revenue jumped 10% to $50.54B; trading surged 20% for a quarterly record. Net interest income guidance trimmed slightly to $103B.
March CPI report due April 10
Energy's 12.5% surge expected to lift headline to 3.3% and core to 2.6%.
Brazil and Mexico face narrowing fiscal space, World Bank warns
The World Bank LAC Economic Update flagged budget constraints and trade uncertainty as key risks.
US March CPI Rises 0.9% MoM, 3.3% YoYβTwo-Year High
BLS posted March CPI at +0.9% MoM seasonally adjusted and +3.3% YoY, with gasoline up 21.2% accounting for roughly three-quarters of headline inflation.
Core CPI Stable at +0.2% MoM, +2.6% YoY
Stripping out food and energy, core CPI edged up 0.2% MoM and 2.6% YoY in March, signaling stable underlying pressure.
IMF April WEO: Global Growth Forecast Slips to 3.1%
The IMF penciled in 2026 global growth at 3.1% and 2027 at 3.2%, assuming contained conflict, and warned of acute vulnerability for commodity-importing emerging nations.
1Q26 US Private Payroll Surge Runs 2.5x the 2025 Monthly Average
Treasury TBAC data showed first-quarter private payroll growth running 2.5 times the 2025 monthly average.
Fed Rate-Cut Consensus Evaporates, Markets Pricing Zero Cuts for 2026
JPMorgan Global Research found markets have priced out any 2026 rate cuts as of April 8, with the next move likely a 25 basis point hike in Q3 2027.
March US CPI: headline +0.9% monthly, +3.3% year-over-year
BLS March seasonally adjusted: month +0.9%, annual +3.3%. Core: month +0.2%, annual +2.6%. Sticky inflation persists.
Treasury: Q1 private payroll growth 2.5x 2025 average
Monthly private employment gains exceed 2025 average by 2.5x or more, underscoring labor-market resilience. April jobs report drops next month.
IMF WEO April: 'Global economy in war's shadow'
Ahead of Spring meetings, IMF flags Hormuz closure and energy prices as core downside risks to 2026 growth.
Bessent signals secondary sanctions on Iran oil buyers
Treasury Secretary Bessent formalizes intent to apply secondary sanctions on nations holding Iranian funds and purchasing Iranian crude. Leverage for ceasefire talks.
EIA: Brent climbs from $81 in Q1 to $115 average Q2 peak
Short-term energy outlook: Q2 average peaks near $115, then gradually slides to $88 by Q4.
Q1 private wage growth accelerates 2.5x 2025 monthly average
Treasury TBAC data shows Q1 2026 private payroll growth exceeded 2025's monthly average by 2.5x, driven partly by supply-shock wage pressures.
Bank of Korea: supply shock could push GDP below 2 percent
The Bank of Korea signaled in April that Middle East supply disruption could drag growth below 2 percent while full-year CPI exceeds its February forecast of 2.2 percent.
EIA: April US gasoline peaks at $4.30/gallon, diesel over $5.80
EIA's April STEO projects US gasoline monthly average of $4.30/gallon with diesel exceeding $5.80. Global crude supply collapsed 10.1 million barrels daily in March to 97 million barrels.
March headline CPI rises 0.9 percent MoM, 3.3 percent YoY
BLS April 10 release (March data): CPI gained 0.9 percent monthly and 3.3 percent year-on-yearβthe highest since April 2024. Gasoline surged 21.2 percent, accounting for 75 percent of the headline move. Core remained stable at 0.2 percent MoM and 2.6 percent YoY.
New Development Bank cumulative approvals hit $42.9 billion
BRICS' New Development Bank has approved 139 projects totaling $42.9 billion as of April, with Brazil accounting for $7 billion across 29 deals.
US March CPI rises to +3.3% YoYβhighest since May 2024
BLS reported March CPI at +3.3% year-on-year, the highest reading since May 2024. Gasoline soared 21.2% and drove the index; April average gasoline is forecast near $4.30/gallon and diesel at $5.80.
Fed holds at 3.50β3.75%; likely stays through year-end
The Fed kept rates steady at 3.50β3.75% in April. Bond markets now price in high odds the Fed stays put through December, citing inflation softness, labor-market cooling, and oil-shock volatility.
Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcasting
The Cleveland Fed's real-time inflation model tracked April CPIβHormuz-blockade pass-through in gasoline emerged as the key variable.
Richmond Fed: National economic indicators April chartbook
Richmond Fed's April 20 chartbook pdf compiles employment, inflation, and industrial production. The low-hire/low-fire labor dynamic repeated.
Morningstar: April payroll consensus +70k; unemployment 4.3%
Morningstar compiled April consensus: nonfarm payrolls +70,000 (March +178,000) and jobless rate holding at 4.3%. Low-hire/low-fire momentum stays solid.
U.S. March CPI 3.3%, core 2.6%, shelter 3.0%
March CPI rose 3.3% year-over-year; core CPI (less food and energy) came in at 2.6%; shelter costs climbed 3.0%. Cleveland Fed's Nowcasting index confirms the trend.
Fed holds rates at 3.5β3.75% for third consecutive meeting
The Federal Reserve kept rates at 3.5β3.75% in April's FOMC, a third consecutive hold. Inflation remains above target, labor-market cracks have widened, and Middle East oil uncertainty looms.
March payroll: +178k jobs, 4.3% jobless rate
The BLS reported March nonfarm payroll growth of +178,000 and a 4.3% unemployment rate. Gains concentrated in healthcare, construction, and transport-warehousing; federal hiring continued to decline.
Trump Section 232 overhaulβbranded drugs face 100% tariffs
Trump's April 2 announcement reshapes steel, aluminum, and copper tariffs under Section 232 and slaps new tariffs up to 100% on brand-name drug imports. This follows February's Supreme Court ruling voiding IEEPA reciprocal tariffs.
Brent averages $103; $150 peak scenario on table
EIA's April short-term outlook showed March Brent averaging $103/barrel; IEA pegged physical-market crude at $150/barrel. EIA projects a $115 peak in Q2 before gradual stabilization as shutins resolve.
US March nonfarm payroll jumps 178k, crushes 59k consensus
BLS April 3: nonfarm jobs +178k, unemployment 4.3% flat. Healthcare +76k, Jan-Feb revisions -7k combined, wages +9 cents to $37.38.
Patent drug tariffs max 100%; MFN deal holders get free pass
Section 232 drug tariffs phase in over 120 days (large) and 180 days (small); MFN price deals and domestic production commitments can hit 0% through Jan 20, 2029. Annex III seventeen firms accelerate July 31.
Finished steel, aluminum, copper hit 50% flat tariff
April 2 proclamation: 50% ad valorem on coils, sheets, and metal-majority finished goods; 25% on derivatives.
$1.5 trillion Pentagon budget request looms as post-WWII record
April 3: White House preps largest defense budget outlay increase ever sought by a sitting president.
South Korea April consumer sentiment plunges to 99.2
Korea April consumer confidence index dropped to 99.2 from 107 prior month, slipping below neutral 100 and signaling weakened near-term outlook.
U.S. March CPI 3.3% YoY, Q1 average inflation accelerates to 0.4% monthly
U.S. 12-month CPI inflation for March stood at 3.3% (up from 2.4% year-earlier), while core CPI softened to 2.6%. Energy volatility from Middle East strife lifted Q1 average inflation to 0.4% monthly from 0.2% in Q4 2025.
Brent vaults from $61 to $118/barrel in Q1 as Hormuz closure tightens supply
Brent futures started Q1 at $61/barrel and closed at $118/barrel. The Strait of Hormuz de facto closure from Feb. 28 military action drove the shock; EIA pegs daily supply loss at 10 million barrelsβa record.
World Bank: Middle East war unleashes largest energy price spike in four years
World Bank's April Commodity Markets Outlook calls the Middle East conflict the largest energy price surge in four years.
IMF April WEO: Global economy tested in shadow of war
IMF's April World Economic Outlook frames the backdrop as "global economy in the shadow of war," flagging both resilience and risk.
May 12: U.S. April CPI printβfirst inflation snapshot post-energy shock, Fed decision hinge
The Labor Department will release April CPI at 8:30 a.m. ET May 12. As the first full-month inflation read after the Hormuz strait shock, it will frame Fed policy pivot.
Fed raises 2026 inflation outlook from 2.4% to 2.7%
The FOMC lifted its March Summary of Economic Projections headline inflation forecast from 2.4% to 2.7% (+30bp) and core PCE from 2.5% to 2.7%.
US equities rally on Iran ceasefire signal as risk-off premium unwinds
Iranian President's peace overtures sent Dow soaring 1,000-plus points and Nasdaq climbing 3.4%, as risk assets shed war premiums.
EIA and IEA to release early April energy outlooks
The EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook and IEA Oil Market Report expected in early April mark the first official supply/demand revisions since Iran disruptions.