Macro
Every item from Trenri daily that fell into Macro, latest first.
June 2026 Β· 111
Samsung Announces 1 Trillion Won Investment Plan Covering Semiconductors and Biotech
Samsung Electronics, Samsung Display, Samsung SDI and other affiliates plan to announce a 1 trillion won investment plan over 10 years across four regions: Honam, Chungcheong, Yeongnam, and Incheon, according to government and industry sources on June 28.
Debate Over Government Regulation of Large Company Employee Mortgage Programs
Following a Samsung Electronics labor agreement that expanded mortgage benefits for unmarried employees to 500 million won with 1.5% interest, the Financial Supervisory Service chief mentioned on June 28 that corporate welfare loans could potentially be included within the DSR framework.
ECB Raises Rates for First Time Since 2023, Deposit Rate at 2.25%
The ECB raised its benchmark rate by 25bp on June 17, setting the deposit rate at 2.25%. The hike was driven by eurozone May inflation reaching 3.2% and a surge in energy prices due to the Middle East conflict.
β¦ RELATED STORYLINEOECD Cuts Global Growth Forecast to 2.8% Reflecting Energy Shock
In its June Economic Outlook, the OECD revised down its 2026 global growth forecast to 2.8%, reflecting the Middle East energy shock. G20 consumer prices are projected to rise to 4.0%.
β¦ RELATED STORYLINEFed Holds Rates for 4th Straight Meeting, PCE Forecast Raised to 3.6%
The Federal Reserve held its benchmark rate at 3.50-3.75% at its June 16-17 meeting and raised its 2026 PCE inflation forecast from 2.7% to 3.6%.
β¦ RELATED STORYLINEFed Holds Rate at 3.50-3.75% Β· Projects Year-End Rate of 3.8%
The U.S. Federal Reserve held its benchmark rate at 3.50-3.75% on June 17, the first meeting chaired by new Chair Kevin Warsh. The Fed officially withdrew its 2026 rate-cut outlook and set its median year-end rate projection at 3.8%.
ECB Raises Key Rate by 25bp Β· Deposit Rate Set at 2.25%
The European Central Bank raised its key rate by 25bp on June 11, setting the deposit rate at 2.25% and the main refinancing rate at 2.40%, effective June 17. The ECB projects average headline inflation of 3.0% for 2026.
U.S. Q1 2026 GDP Revised Up to 2.09% in Third Estimate
The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis revised its Q1 2026 GDP third estimate upward to an annualized growth rate of 2.09% on June 25. The Fed's FOMC projections indicate full-year 2026 real growth will remain around 2%.
U.S. Pursues 10-12.5% Tariffs on 60 Countries Over Forced Labor
The USTR launched tariff investigations targeting 60 countries over forced labor practices in supply chains, pursuing additional duties of 10-12.5%. The EU is among the countries targeted, and the current 10% tariff is set to expire on July 24.
World Bank Projects 2026 Global Growth at 2.5%
The World Bank's June report lowered its 2026 global growth forecast to 2.5%, down 0.4 percentage points from 2025 (2.9%), citing a sharp rise in energy prices driven by Middle East conflict.
Fed Holds Rates, Raises PCE Forecast from 2.7% to 3.6%
The June 17 FOMC voted 12-0 to hold the benchmark rate at 3.50β3.75%. The first meeting under incoming Chair Waller raised the PCE inflation forecast from 2.7% to 3.6%.
ECB Hikes Rate 25bp β Responding to 3.0% Eurozone Inflation
The European Central Bank raised its deposit rate 25bp to 2.25% on June 11. It revised its 2026 eurozone inflation forecast up to 3.0% and cut its growth outlook to 0.8%.
OECD and World Bank Cut Global Growth Forecasts on Middle East Energy Shock
The OECD lowered its 2026 global growth forecast to 2.8% and issued a G20 inflation alert at 4%. The World Bank projected the lowest post-COVID rate of 2.5%, warning of a drop to 2.1% if the conflict drags on.
β¦ RELATED STORYLINEFed Holds Rates, Signals Possible Hike Within the Year
At new Fed Chair Waller's first FOMC meeting, rates were held at 3.50-3.75%, but the dot plot showed nine members projecting an additional hike this year. The suspension of forward guidance also rattled markets.
β¦ RELATED STORYLINEU.S. May CPI at 4.2% β Highest in 3 Years on Energy Surge
A sharp spike in energy prices (+23.5%) pushed May consumer prices to 4.2%, the highest in three years. Core inflation also rose to 2.9%, intensifying pressure on the Fed to tighten.
β¦ RELATED STORYLINEFed Holds Rates for 4th Straight Meeting, Hints at Year-End Hike
The first FOMC under new Chair Waller kept rates at 3.50-3.75%. Half the committee penciled in one hike by year-end, lifting the median 2026 dot to 3.8% and reinforcing a hawkish tilt.
β¦ RELATED STORYLINEECB Hikes Rates for First Time Since 2023 β Energy Inflation Cited
The European Central Bank raised its deposit rate by 25bps to 2.25% on June 11, the first hike since 2023, specifically to counter energy-driven inflation stemming from the Iran war.
β¦ RELATED STORYLINEUS May CPI Hits 4.2% β 3-Year High Driven by Energy Surge
May consumer prices rose 4.2%, a 3-year high, as energy costs surged 23.5%. Core CPI also edged up to 2.9%, putting additional pressure on the Fed to resume tightening.
β¦ RELATED STORYLINEFed holds steady, signals year-end hike in dot plot
Kevin Warsh's first FOMC as chairman voted unanimously to hold. Nine board members now project at least one 2026 hike; year-end median rises to 3.8%. Middle East energy shock drives inflation case.
β¦ RELATED STORYLINEBOJ hikes to 1.0%, highest in 31 years
Bank of Japan voted 7-0 to raise 25bp. Energy shock from Iran conflict threatens broadbased inflation. Yen strength pressures reassert themselves.
β¦ RELATED STORYLINEUS May CPI 4.2% YoY; energy up 23.5% sets tone
Energy index rose 3.9% monthly, driving 60%+ of the total gain. Core CPI also hit nine-month peak at 2.9%.
β¦ RELATED STORYLINEECB raises deposit rate 25bp to 2.25%, first hike in three years
Middle East energy shock rekindling eurozone inflation. 2026 growth forecast stays stuck at 0.9%.
β¦ RELATED STORYLINETrump proposes 25% tariff on Brazilian footwear and apparel
USTR adds shoes, clothing, and luggage to tariff list. Section 232 steel, aluminum, copper orders effective June 8. Dollar strength pressure building.
Fed Holds Rates for Fourth Consecutive Meeting, PCE Forecast Surges to 3.6%
At Chair Warsh's first FOMC meeting, the Fed held rates at 3.50-3.75%, but nine members support additional hikes this year with median dot plot rising to 3.8%. PCE inflation forecasts jumped significantly from 2.7% to 3.6%, with markets now treating second-half additional hikes as certain.
β¦ RELATED STORYLINEChina's Central Bank Holds LPR at 3.0% One-Year, 3.5% Five-Year
China's People's Bank held the loan prime rate at 3.0% for one-year and 3.5% for five-year terms on June 22. While some analysts suggest room for additional cuts following May's 10bp reduction, authorities maintain a cautious stance based on strong export performance.
β¦ RELATED STORYLINECanada April CPI at 2.8%, Highest in 2 Years β Energy Shock Reignites Inflation
Canada's April consumer price index rose 2.8% year-over-year, marking the highest level in two years. Energy price surges from Middle East conflicts drove transport sector inflation from 3.7% to 7.6%, with May data scheduled for release on June 22.
β¦ RELATED STORYLINEFed dot plot raised to 3.8% at Warsh's first FOMC β rate hike signal sent
Chair Warsh held rates at 3.50-3.75% at his first FOMC, but nine members voted for at least one additional hike this year, lifting the dot plot median to 3.8%. The PCE inflation forecast was raised sharply to 3.6%, effectively extinguishing any market hopes for a 2026 cut.
β¦ RELATED STORYLINEECB hikes rates for first time in three years as Iran-driven energy inflation bites
The European Central Bank raised its deposit rate to 2.25%, the first hike since 2023, in response to eurozone CPI running at 3.2% β fueled by the Iran conflict-driven surge in energy prices. With Q1 GDP at -0.2%, stagflation fears are mounting and a follow-up hike in July is already being priced in.
β¦ RELATED STORYLINEBank of Korea holds at 2.50% but Governor Shin signals July hike
The May Monetary Policy Board meeting maintained rates at 2.50%, but Governor Shin Hyun-song delivered hawkish signals, saying the direction ahead is clear. With May CPI accelerating to 3.1% and 90% of board members backing a hike this year, the July 16 meeting is now in sharp focus.
β¦ RELATED STORYLINEFed Chair Warsh holds rates, dot plot shifts to 3.8% year-end
New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh presided over his first FOMC, holding the rate at 3.50-3.75%. With 9 members supporting additional hikes this year, the median dot plot moved up to 3.8%, effectively erasing any rate-cut expectations.
β¦ RELATED STORYLINEECB raises rates for first time in 3 years β deposit rate now 2.25%
The ECB hiked by 25bp on June 11 against a backdrop of eurozone CPI at 3.2%, its first increase since September 2023. The move targets Middle East-driven energy inflation, with further hikes in July also being discussed.
β¦ RELATED STORYLINEBank of Korea holds at 2.50%, rate cut pushed to year-end
The May 28 decision is maintained as the BOK proceeds cautiously amid a high exchange rate and a rebound in Seoul home prices. If the Fed resumes tightening, the BOK's room to maneuver narrows further, pushing any cut past year-end.
β¦ RELATED STORYLINEFed's first FOMC under Warsh holds rates steady...dot plot shows 9 officials expecting rate hike this year, 2-year yield surges to 4.19%
The Fed held the benchmark rate at 3.50-3.75% on June 17, but 9 of 18 FOMC members indicated additional hikes this year in the dot plot. The median year-end rate moved up from 3.4% to 3.8%, and 2-year Treasury yields jumped 14 basis points to 4.19%.
β¦ RELATED STORYLINEBank of Japan raises rates to 1%, highest since 1995...dollar/yen held at 158-160
The Bank of Japan raised its benchmark rate from 0.75% to 1.00% on June 16, marking the highest level in 30 years. Despite the rate differential with the U.S. Fed reaching 250-275 basis points, yen appreciation effects remain limited, and dollar/yen trades in the 158-160 range.
β¦ RELATED STORYLINEStrait of Hormuz reopened with WTI at $75.81 and Brent at $78.66 plunging, geopolitical premium dissipates
With the U.S.-Iran MOU taking effect and the Strait of Hormuz reopening, WTI fell to $75.81 and Brent crude dropped to $78.66. News of immediate Iranian crude exports significantly eased global supply concerns, and Goldman Sachs lowered its Q4 Brent forecast to $80.
β¦ RELATED STORYLINEFOMC holds at 3.50-3.75% in Warsh's debut, hawkish dot plot signals possible hike
The Federal Reserve held its benchmark rate at 3.50-3.75% at Kevin Warsh's first FOMC meeting as chair. The dot plot released signaled a possible additional rate increase within the year, marking a pivot from easing bias to hawkish neutral. May CPI of 4.2% β a 3-year high β provided the backdrop.
β¦ RELATED STORYLINEBOJ rate hike ripple effect limited as yen carry trade stays intact near 158
Despite the BOJ's first rate hike to 1% in 31 years, the yen carry trade unwind has been limited due to the US-Japan interest rate differential exceeding 4 percentage points. The dollar-yen pair is trading near 158, with markets pricing in a further rise to 1.25% by year-end.
β¦ RELATED STORYLINEWTI slides further to $75-76, Iran crude export restart expectations mount
WTI crude slid to $75-76 per barrel as the US-Iran MOU includes provisions for the immediate resumption of Iranian oil exports. The price is now roughly 35% below pre-conflict levels. Full normalization of tanker traffic is expected to take 2-3 months after the June 19 Hormuz reopening.
β¦ RELATED STORYLINEBOJ Raises Rate to 1.0% β Highest Since 1995 in Landmark Decision
The Bank of Japan hiked its policy rate by 25bp to 1.00% on June 16 β the highest since 1995. Japan's May PPI surged 6.3% year-on-year, driving the decision. Markets now price in roughly two more hikes by year-end toward 1.25%.
β¦ RELATED STORYLINEFOMC Holds at 3.5-3.75% in Hawkish Pause, Dashing H2 Rate Cut Hopes
The FOMC kept its benchmark rate at 3.5-3.75% at the June 16-17 meeting, Kevin Warsh's first as Fed Chair. While a hold was 99.5% priced in, the committee shifted its bias from easing to hawkish neutral amid 4.2% CPI, effectively ruling out second-half rate cuts.
β¦ RELATED STORYLINEBrent Crude Plunges to $83 on Hormuz Reopening Hopes β Biggest Weekly Drop
Brent crude fell 4.7% to $83.17 and WTI slid 4.8% to $80.75 on the US-Iran MOU agreement β the lowest since early March. Oil has now dropped roughly 27% from its peak after the February conflict began, raising hopes for a global inflation reprieve.
β¦ RELATED STORYLINEWorld Bank Cuts 2026 Global Growth to 2.5%, Lowest Since COVID
The World Bank's June 11 report revised down 2026 global growth to 2.5%, the lowest since the pandemic. The main drivers are surging oil prices (Brent at $94) due to Middle East conflict and renewed inflation.
β¦ RELATED STORYLINEFed Holds Rates at 3.5β3.75% at June FOMC
The Federal Reserve kept its benchmark rate at 3.5β3.75% at the June 16β17 FOMC meeting. With US CPI at 4.2% year-over-year, markets priced in a 99.5% probability of a hold, though a hawkish bias for the second half was signaled.
β¦ RELATED STORYLINEUS Reaffirms 15% Tariff Cap for South Korea Under Bilateral Deal
South Korea's industry minister confirmed the US has reaffirmed the 15% tariff cap under the US-Korea Strategic Trade and Investment Agreement linked to Korea's $350 billion investment pledge. Korea's exception from additional levies was also confirmed.
South Korea Q1 Nominal GDP Growth Hits 10.5%, Highest in 50 Years
South Korea's Q1 2026 nominal GDP growth rate reached 10.5%, the highest level in about 50 years. A surge in AI demand causing HBM4 export prices to skyrocket is the primary driver, and the OECD projects annual growth at 10.4%.
β¦ RELATED STORYLINEGoldman Sachs Pushes Fed Rate Cut Forecast Back to June 2027
Goldman Sachs withdrew its forecast for a 2026 rate cut, citing strong May non-farm payrolls of 172,000, and pushed the first cut to June 2027. The probability of a slight rate hike was also raised from 10% to 20%.
β¦ RELATED STORYLINEUS-Korea Tariff Agreement at 15% Reaffirmed, Linked to KRW 350 Trillion Investment Pledge
Korea's trade minister met with the USTR representative at the OECD Ministerial Meeting, reaffirming implementation of the bilateral tariff agreement (15% rate applied to Korea). The US maintained the reciprocal tariff reduced from 25%, linked to a KRW 350 trillion investment pledge.
ECB raises rates to 2.25% β first hike since 2023 β while cutting growth outlook
The ECB hiked 25bp on June 11, marking its first tightening cycle since 2023. Iran-war energy shocks lifted the inflation forecast while growth was downgraded. The Governing Council left the door open to additional hikes if energy prices remain elevated.
β¦ RELATED STORYLINEBOJ June 16 rate hike to 1.0% at 97.7% probability β highest since 1995
49 of 51 surveyed economists expect the Bank of Japan to hike 25bp to 1.0% on June 16, with market-implied probability at 97.7%. Sustained Middle East-driven energy inflation underpins the case for normalization.
β¦ RELATED STORYLINEFOMC June 16-17 hold at 3.50-3.75% seen at 99.3%, focus on bias shift
The probability of a Fed hold at the June 16-17 FOMC meeting is 99.3%. Markets are watching for a potential shift from 'easing bias' to 'neutral or tightening' language, with May CPI at 4.2% the key wildcard.
β¦ RELATED STORYLINEIran ceasefire hopes push Brent to $87.27 and ease global inflation expectations
Trump's June 12 comments that an Iran deal could come within days sent Brent crude down 3.4% to $87.27. Easing energy shock could lower inflation forecasts and give central banks β especially the Fed and ECB β more room to pause tightening.
β¦ RELATED STORYLINEUS May CPI at 4.2%, a three-year high, as energy surges
Consumer prices hit a three-year high, led by a 23.5% annual energy jump. Core CPI softened to 0.2% on the month, but BofA now sees the Fed on hold through 2026 and cutting only in 2027, a view CME FedWatch echoes.
β¦ RELATED STORYLINEFOMC hold certain on June 16-17; the fate of Warsh's dot plot is the question
A hold at 3.50-3.75% is all but assured for a third straight meeting. The key variable is whether the dot plot survives; Warsh has criticized it as curbing flexibility, and his first press conference could reset the policy path.
β¦ RELATED STORYLINEBOJ seen hiking to 1.0% on June 16, the highest in 31 years
A board majority backs a 25bp move to the highest level since 1995. Middle East oil has sharpened inflation concerns and a weak yen adds to the case; a hike could reignite yen-carry unwinding pressure.
β¦ RELATED STORYLINEECB lifts the deposit rate to 2.25% on June 11 to fend off inflation
The ECB raised its three key rates 25bp, judging that the war's energy shock changed the inflation path and setting a 3.0% 2026 forecast. Growth at 0.8% keeps stagflation in view, but it prioritized price stability.
β¦ RELATED STORYLINEBank of Korea holds at 2.50%; the July 16 meeting is the watershed
The BOK is holding at 2.50% with the next decision on July 16. Geopolitical risk, a weak won and resurgent inflation all press at once, while high rates abroad effectively close the door on an independent cut.
β¦ RELATED STORYLINEUS May CPI confirmed at 4.2%, core 2.9% pushes Fed cut clock back
The US May CPI released June 10 came in at 4.2% year-on-year, the highest since April 2023. Energy surged 23.5% to make up over 60% of the gain, and core also hit a 9-month high at 2.9%.
β¦ RELATED STORYLINEJune FOMC hold near-certain, eyes on Warsh's first-meeting dot plot
The June 16-17 FOMC has a 97% chance of holding at 3.50-3.75%. The key question at Kevin Warsh's first meeting is whether the dot plot moves up, with some now seeing the first cut pushed to 2027.
β¦ RELATED STORYLINEECB lifts deposit rate to 2.25% today, Lagarde keeps July open
The ECB is all but certain to raise its deposit rate from 2.00% to 2.25% on June 11. President Lagarde is expected to keep a July hike on the table while sticking to a data-dependent, meeting-by-meeting approach.
β¦ RELATED STORYLINEBOJ seen hiking to 1.0% on the 16th, 49 of 51 economists agree
In a June 9 Bloomberg survey, 49 of 51 economists expect the BOJ to lift its rate from 0.75% to 1.0% on June 16, with market-implied odds at 97%. Strong Q1 GDP and energy prices strengthen the tightening case.
β¦ RELATED STORYLINEBank of Korea holds at 2.50% for 8th time, next call July 16
The Bank of Korea held its rate at 2.50% for an eighth straight meeting on May 28, with a hawkish minority persisting. Won weakness and renewed energy inflation constrain easing, making the July 16 meeting a hike pivot.
β¦ RELATED STORYLINEUS May CPI out today, headline 4.2% and core 2.9% expected
The US Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the May CPI at 8:30 a.m. ET on June 10. The consensus is 4.2% headline and 2.9% core year on year, a reacceleration from April's 3.8%.
β¦ RELATED STORYLINEECB 25bp hike likely June 11, deposit rate seen at 2.25%
Markets price a 97% chance the ECB raises its deposit rate 25bp from 2.00% to 2.25% on June 11. The move follows euro-zone May inflation of 3.2%, a nine-month high.
β¦ RELATED STORYLINEFed FOMC June 16-17, Warsh's first meeting seen as a hold
New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's first FOMC runs June 16-17. A hold at 3.50-3.75% is likely, but markets are focused on whether the dot plot is raised and a hawkish tilt reaffirmed.
β¦ RELATED STORYLINEBOJ June 16 meeting, hike from 0.75% to 1.0% looks likely
Markets price an 80%-plus chance the Bank of Japan raises its short-term policy rate 25bp from 0.75% to 1.00% at its June 15-16 meeting. If realized, it would top 1% for the first time since 1995.
β¦ RELATED STORYLINEBOK holds at 2.50% in May; hawkish split puts July in focus
The Bank of Korea held its policy rate at 2.50% in May, but a hawkish tilt grew as some board members pushed for an immediate hike. With FX surging and prices pressured, the July 16 meeting is the watershed.
β¦ RELATED STORYLINEUS May payrolls surprise at 172k, hike odds jump to 70%
May nonfarm payrolls rose 172,000, more than double the 85,000 consensus. Unemployment held at 4.3% and average hourly earnings rose 3.4% year-over-year. The odds of a December Fed hike jumped from 50% to around 70%.
US 10-year yield hits 2-week high of 4.57% on strong jobs
On the strong May jobs data, the US 10-year Treasury yield rose to a two-week high of about 4.57% on June 8. The 30-year hit 5.01%. Markets expect the Warsh-led Fed to hold at the June 16-17 meeting.
ECB June 11 25bp hike likely, deposit rate to 2.25% at 99% odds
Markets price a 99% chance the ECB raises 25bp on June 11, lifting the deposit rate from 2.0% to 2.25%. With Iran-war energy shocks pushing April eurozone inflation to 3%, the preemptive hike addresses de-anchoring risks.
BOJ to weigh 1.0% hike at June 16 meeting, eyes more this year
Per Bloomberg, the Bank of Japan is expected to discuss raising its policy rate from 0.75% to 1.0% at its meeting ending June 16. Citing low real rates and persistent upside inflation risk, it left room for a further 2026 hike.
Won-dollar hits 17-year high of 1,561 intraday, BOK July meeting pressured
On June 8, the won-dollar rate rose intraday to 1,561.5, the highest since March 2009, before closing at 1,535.0 on official intervention. The BOK held at 2.5% in May for an eighth straight time, with the July 16 meeting a pivot.
US May jobs surprise with 172,000 additions, double consensus expectations
US May nonfarm payroll additions reached 172,000, more than double consensus expectations of 85,000. The unemployment rate held at 4.3%, with prior months revised higher and wage growth at 3.4% year-over-year.
β¦ RELATED STORYLINE10-year yields spike to 4.54% after jobs surprise; rate cut hopes fade
Following the strong employment report, 10-year Treasury yields jumped over 6bp to 4.544%, the highest since May 21. Two-year yields rose 11bp to 4.162%, as Fed rate cut expectations evaporated.
β¦ RELATED STORYLINEFOMC June hold probability at 99.4%; 2026 rate cut hopes vanish
CME FedWatch shows 99.4% probability the FOMC will hold on June 17. With April CPI elevated at 3.8%, the Fed is expected to maintain rates at 3.50-3.75%, with rate cuts expected to be off the table for the rest of 2026.
β¦ RELATED STORYLINEBOJ expected to raise 0.75% to 1.0% in June, highest since 1995
Bloomberg and Reuters report the Bank of Japan is expected to raise its policy rate from 0.75% to 1.0% at its June 15-16 meeting. A 1.0% level would be the highest since 1995, with further hikes possible later in 2026.
β¦ RELATED STORYLINEECB likely to hike 25bp on June 11; Bank of Korea signals July rate increase
The market is pricing in a 99% probability that the ECB will raise its policy rate by 25bp to 2.25% on June 11. South Korea's central bank maintained rates at 2.50% for an eighth consecutive hold in May, signaling a possible hike in July.
β¦ RELATED STORYLINEUS May jobs beat at 172K, jobless rate 4.3%, Fed cut bets fade
May nonfarm payrolls released June 5 rose 172,000, more than double the Dow Jones estimate of 80,000, with unemployment steady at 4.3%. Average hourly earnings rose 3.4% year over year, the strongest in two years, weakening Fed rate-cut expectations.
β¦ RELATED STORYLINEFed June hold seen at 99% but hike talk revives, April CPI 3.8%
Markets price the June 16-17 FOMC hold at effectively 99% yet revived odds of another hike this year on the strong jobs print. April CPI had climbed to 3.8% on energy prices, compounded by Middle East uncertainty.
β¦ RELATED STORYLINEBank of Japan holds at 0.75% in 6-3 split, June hike odds rise
The Bank of Japan held its policy rate at 0.75% on April 28 but a 6-3 split exposed the largest rift under Ueda. With Middle East war-driven upside price pressure, normalization debate is set to intensify at the June meeting.
β¦ RELATED STORYLINEECB hold signals end of cutting cycle, June 11 meeting ahead
At its February 5 meeting the ECB held all three policy rates, signaling it had wrapped up the cutting cycle barring an unexpected shock. Eurozone policy entered a wait-and-see phase, with the next meeting on June 11.
β¦ RELATED STORYLINEBank of Korea holds rate at 2.50% for 8th time, lifts growth to 2.6%
The Bank of Korea held its base rate at 2.50% for an eighth straight meeting in May. With April inflation at 2.6%, the highest since July 2024, and a weak won, it raised its 2026 growth forecast to 2.6% on strong chip exports.
β¦ RELATED STORYLINEUS adds 172,000 jobs in May, double the forecast, jolting markets
US nonfarm payrolls rose 172,000 in May, per the BLS June 5 release, double the roughly 80,000 forecast. Unemployment held at 4.3%, with gains led by leisure and hospitality (70,000), local government (55,000) and healthcare (35,000).
β¦ RELATED STORYLINEStrong jobs lift the 10-year Treasury yield to 4.54%; S&P 500 closes lower
On strong jobs, the 10-year Treasury yield jumped to 4.54% on June 5 and the 2-year rose to 4.16%. The S&P 500 fell 0.7%, and odds of a December Fed hike jumped to 65% from 48% before the report.
β¦ RELATED STORYLINEAhead of Warsh's first FOMC, June hold at 97%, December hike at 70%
At the June 16-17 FOMC, new Chair Warsh's first, the Fed is seen holding the rate (3.50-3.75%) with 97% odds. Wall Street has lifted December-hike odds to 70%, raising fears of renewed tightening.
β¦ RELATED STORYLINEKorea May CPI hits a 26-month-high 3.1%; BOK warns of staying above 3%
Korea's May CPI rose 3.1% year-on-year, a 26-month high, per Statistics Korea on June 2. Petroleum products jumped 24.2% and international airfares 33.5% on the Middle East war, prompting the Bank of Korea to warn prices will stay above 3% for now.
β¦ RELATED STORYLINEBOJ mulls a June hike to 1%; ECB seen 97% likely to raise to 2.25% on June 11
Bloomberg reported June 4 that the Bank of Japan is mulling a hike to 1.0% from 0.75% at its June 15-16 meeting. The ECB, against 3.2% euro-zone May inflation, is seen 97% likely to raise its deposit rate to 2.25% from 2.00% on June 11.
β¦ RELATED STORYLINEUS May jobs report due June 5; ~95K added, 4.3% unemployment seen
Labor releases May payrolls at 8:30am ET June 5. Markets expect about +95K nonfarm and a steady 4.3% jobless rate; ADP private payrolls were a solid +122K in May.
Fed June hold odds 97%; Warsh's first FOMC June 16-17 in focus
New chair Kevin Warsh, who took office May 22, chairs his first FOMC June 16-17. Prediction markets price a ~97% hold and a 57% chance of no cuts this year, with Middle East oil limiting room to ease.
β¦ RELATED STORYLINEKorea May CPI 3.1%, a 26-month high; BOK early-cut hopes recede
Korea's May CPI rose 3.1% y/y, the highest in over two years, driven by a 24.2% surge in petroleum from the Middle East war. The sticky print pushed back BOK early-cut hopes and improved the won's outlook.
β¦ RELATED STORYLINEWon touches 1,539/USD, its weakest since March 2009
The won slid to 1,539/USD, its weakest since March 2009, after peaking at 1,531.97 on June 3. Middle East tension, a strong dollar and high oil are pressuring the currency simultaneously.
BOJ June hike likely; ECB seen lifting to 2.25% on the 11th
BOJ Governor Ueda has all but signaled a June hike as Japan's April wholesale prices jumped 4.9%. Most economists also expect the ECB to raise its deposit rate 25bp to 2.25% on June 11.
β¦ RELATED STORYLINEKorea May CPI 3.1%, highest in 26 months
Statistics Korea's May CPI rose 3.1% YoY, the biggest gain since March 2024. Petroleum +24.2% and international airfares +33.5% led; core inflation hit 2.5%, a 2-year-3-month high, topping the 3.0% forecast.
β¦ RELATED STORYLINEUS April core PCE 3.3%, well above the Fed's target
The April PCE price index, released May 28 by the BEA, rose 3.8% YoY and core PCE 3.3%. On the month, headline rose 0.4% and core 0.2%, confirming sticky inflation in the Fed's preferred gauge.
β¦ RELATED STORYLINEJune FOMC hold likely; Warsh's first meeting in focus
CME FedWatch puts the June 17 FOMC hold odds in the 99% range, with rates seen at 3.50-3.75%. War-driven high oil and sticky inflation pushed back cuts; it is new chair Warsh's first meeting.
β¦ RELATED STORYLINEBank of Korea holds 8th time, exposing hawkish split
On May 28 the BOK held its base rate at 2.5% (2 of 7 dissenting for a hike). At the new governor's first meeting it raised its 2026 inflation view to 2.7%, and markets began pricing a July hike.
β¦ RELATED STORYLINEBOJ, ECB hikes near; 10-year yield jumps above 4.45%
BOJ Governor Ueda reaffirmed the need for further hikes on June 3 (June 16 meeting), and the ECB is seen raising 0.25pt on June 11. With US May ADP private payrolls at 122k, the 10-year yield jumped above 4.45%.
β¦ RELATED STORYLINEKorea May CPI 3.1%, highest in 26 months
Korea's May CPI rose 3.1% year over year, the biggest gain since March 2024, Statistics Korea said June 2. A prolonged Mideast war drove petroleum products up 24.2%, lifting the overall index.
β¦ RELATED STORYLINEUS April PCE 3.8%, highest in 23 months
US April PCE inflation hit 3.8% year over year, a 23-month high. Core PCE rose 3.3%, underpinning the Fed's hold stance and squeezing consumer spending.
β¦ RELATED STORYLINEUS 30-year yield tops 5%, a 19-year high
The US 30-year Treasury yield spiked to 5.183% on May 19, the highest since 2007. It held near 4.97-4.98% in early June, pressuring global bond markets.
β¦ RELATED STORYLINEWarsh's first FOMC June 17, hold seen at 97%
New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh chairs his first FOMC on June 16-17. Markets price a 97% chance of holding rates at 3.50-3.75%, watching his statement language and any dissents.
β¦ RELATED STORYLINEBOJ June 16 meeting carries 77% hike odds
Odds the Bank of Japan hikes at its June 15-16 meeting reach 77%. It held in April on a 6-3 split, but Mideast-driven inflation pressure is strengthening the case for early normalization.
β¦ RELATED STORYLINEUS April PCE inflation 3.8%, highest since May 2023
The US BEA's April PCE price index, released May 28, rose 3.8% year-on-year, a roughly 23-month high. Core PCE rose to 3.3% from March's 3.2%. Monthly headline was 0.4%, with Middle East-driven energy prices leading the rise.
β¦ RELATED STORYLINEUS 30-year Treasury yield above 5%, surging to a 19-year high
On inflation reacceleration and fiscal worries, the US 30-year yield rose to 5.02% on June 1, near a 19-year high. The 10-year rose to 4.47%. Markets abandoned hopes of a 2026 cut, with some pricing a year-end hike.
β¦ RELATED STORYLINEFed likely to hold at June FOMC, Warsh's first test
Markets price a 96-97% chance of a hold at the June 17 FOMC. Amid inflation reacceleration and surging yields, new Chair Kevin Warsh faces committee opposition despite his cut bias. 2026 rate-cut odds fell below 3%.
β¦ RELATED STORYLINEBoJ June hike gains weight, backed by strong Q1 GDP
Stronger-than-expected Japanese Q1 GDP bolstered the case for a June BoJ hike. ING forecasts a total 50bp of hikes in 2026. The BoJ, which held in April, had raised its core inflation forecast to 2.8% from 1.9% on Middle East risk.
β¦ RELATED STORYLINEKorea's May CPI in focus on whether it tops 3%
As Statistics Korea releases May CPI in early June, markets watch whether it enters the 3% range. April was 2.6% year-on-year, up from March's 2.2%. Middle East war-driven import-price spikes likely pushed May higher.
β¦ RELATED STORYLINEApril PCE 3.8%, core 3.3% acceleratesΒ·Middle East war stokes inflation
US April PCE inflation jumped to 3.8% from 3.5% in March, with core PCE rising to 3.3%. Monthly headline gained 0.4%. Middle East tensions have reignited oil-driven inflation, complicating Kevin Warsh's inflation mandate as the new Fed chair.
β¦ RELATED STORYLINEWarsh first FOMC 6/16-17Β·market prices 97% hold, hike pressure mutes rate-cut hopes
CME FedWatch shows 97.2% odds of a June hold for Kevin Warsh's inaugural FOMC on June 16-17 after his 54-45 confirmation on May 13. Rising inflation and Treasury yields eclipse Trump's rate-cut pressure, with hike chatter even surfacing.
β¦ RELATED STORYLINEUS 10Y hits 4.45%, 30Y breaks 5.2% line; bond vigilante revival talk emerges
On May 29, the 10-year Treasury closed at 4.45% and briefly topped 4.7% at 16-month highs. The 30-year broke 5.198%, hitting levels last seen before the Great Recession. Iran ceasefire hope provided some relief, but fiscal and inflation worries keep long rates under pressure.
β¦ RELATED STORYLINEBank of Japan June 16 hike likelyΒ·0.75% to 1.0% in focus
The BoJ paused in April on a 6-3 split but June 16 leans toward a hike. Middle East inflation risks and strong Q1 GDP growth support an increase, while a hawkish board member's term ends June 29βmaking June the last practical window.
β¦ RELATED STORYLINEECB 6/11 hike bet at 91%Β·deposit rate 2.0% to 2.25%
Eurozone April inflation rose to 3% from energy, and markets price a 91% likelihood of a 25bp ECB hike on June 11. Deposit rates are forecast to rise to 2.25%, with another 50% odds of a September hike. The ECB held at 2.0% on April 30.
β¦ RELATED STORYLINE
May 2026 Β· 137
April PCE headline 3.8% Β· highest since May 2023 inflation shock
US April PCE price index reached 3.8% year-over-year, the highest since May 2023. Monthly 0.4% rise fell short of the 0.5% forecast, but inflation stickiness concerns intensify under new Fed Chair Warsh.
β¦ RELATED STORYLINEFutures market prices zero Fed rate cuts in 2026 Β· June hold favored
Traders on Kalshi and Polymarket wagered over $42 million on June 17 FOMC rate hold. Markets price in federal funds rate remaining at 3.50-3.75% through year-end under Chair Warsh, effectively abandoning cut expectations.
β¦ RELATED STORYLINEUS 10-year 4.44% Β· 30-year 4.98% enter danger zone
On May 29, the 10-year Treasury yield fell 1.2bp to 4.443%, while the 30-year rose 0.7bp to 4.978%. Strategists warn that 10-year breaking 4.65% and 30-year breaching 5.5% could trigger equity market volatility.
β¦ RELATED STORYLINEBOJ rate hike June 16 imminent Β· former board member signals confidence
Former BOJ board member Sakurai Makoto forecasts on May 29 that the Bank of Japan will hike policy rates at its June 16 meeting. April's 6-3 hold and strong Q1 GDP provide justification, with hawkish BOJ signals intensifying.
β¦ RELATED STORYLINEEurozone April CPI 3.0% surge Β· ECB June hike theory gains traction
Eurozone April annual inflation jumped to 3.0% from March's 2.6%. Energy surged 10.8% due to Middle East conflict, prompting some economists to suggest 25bp hike possibility to 2.25% at June 11 ECB meeting.
β¦ RELATED STORYLINEApril PCE headline 3.8% / core 3.3%, highest since May 2023 β stickiness locks in
BEA's April PCE release on 5/28 came in at +0.4% MoM and +3.8% YoY, the highest since May 2023. Core PCE at 0.2% / 3.3% β highest since October 2023 β means that even with monthly cooling, the annual stickiness is hardening, adding to Warsh's first FOMC (6/16-17) policy burden.
β¦ RELATED STORYLINEUS 10Y 4.47% / 30Y 5.18% range-bound, duration selling moderates post-PCE
On 5/28 the 10Y Treasury yield slipped 1bp from 4.48% to 4.47%, with the 30Y in a 5.03~5.18% range. Duration selling has moderated post-PCE, and Polymarket / CME FedWatch June hold probability of 97% leaves cut bets effectively wiped out β a policy inflection point looms.
β¦ RELATED STORYLINEUSD/JPY 159.38 at month low Β· BOJ Ueda hawkish-lite tone partially fans June hike bets
USD/JPY touched a one-month yen-strength zone at 159.38 on 5/28, putting the 160-yen intervention line back in focus. BOJ Governor Ueda flagged 'oil shock impact' but did not pre-commit to a June hike, and Deputy Governor Himino tied pace to Middle East spillover β keeping markets in range-hold mode.
β¦ RELATED STORYLINEChina May PMI prints 6/1 Sunday Β· April set baseline at manufacturing 50.3 / services 49.4 cooling
China's NBS May PMI prints 6/1 (Sunday). April showed manufacturing at 50.3 (cooling from 50.4), holding two months of expansion, while non-manufacturing re-entered contraction at 49.4. With Hormuz-driven cost shocks now feeding through, a further May softening scenario dominates.
ECB holds deposit rate at 2.0% Β· HICP at 2.6% β June cut bets retreat on Middle East oil
The ECB held its deposit rate at 2.0% with 2026 HICP forecast at 2.6%. March headline at 2.6% set a post-July-2024 high, and Middle East-driven oil surges are causing June cut bets to retreat quickly, with Lagarde reiterating 'data-dependent' decisions at the next meeting.
β¦ RELATED STORYLINEApril PCE forecast at 3.9% headline, 3.3% core; energy-driven jump to three-year high releases 5/28
April PCE data release scheduled for 5/28 morning is expected to show 3.9% year-over-year headline and 3.3% core. Rising oil prices are pulling headlines higher, creating policy headwinds ahead of Warsh's inaugural FOMC on 6/16β17.
β¦ RELATED STORYLINEUS 10-year yield 4.48%, 30-year 5.18% as curve flattens on solid auctions
On 5/27, the 10-year US Treasury yield settled at 4.48%, the 30-year at 5.18%, and the 7-year at 4.32%, all edging slightly lower. Solid auction demand ahead of the PCE release is driving long-end buying and curve flattening.
β¦ RELATED STORYLINEWarsh takes chair 6/16β17 FOMC debut; Powell remains as vice chair in unprecedented dual leadership
Kevin Warsh was confirmed 54β45 as the 11th Federal Reserve Chair. His inaugural FOMC runs 6/16β17. Powell stays on as governor for his remaining term, creating a rare co-leadership model that will test global monetary policy coordination.
β¦ RELATED STORYLINEYen slides to USD/JPY 159.19 one-month low; BOJ's Tamura signals hike room, 160 intervention line looms
On 5/27, USD/JPY tested a one-month low at 159.19. BOJ board member Tamura hinted in a Kanagawa speech that further hikes would still be accommodative, reigniting June hike expectations and putting the 160-yen intervention line back in play.
β¦ RELATED STORYLINEECB holds deposit rate at 2.0%; HICP 2.6% forecast clouds June cut expectations as oil shocks persist
The ECB held deposit rates at 2.0% with 2026 HICP guidance at 2.6%. March headline inflation hit 2.6%, the highest since July 2024. Middle East oil spikes are rapidly eroding June cut bets.
β¦ RELATED STORYLINE5/27 US Conference Board Consumer Confidence 93.1, -0.7 points
May US Conference Board Consumer Confidence released 5/27 at 93.1, down 0.7 from April's 93.8. Present Situation 121.2 (-3.2), Expectations 74.4 (+1.0), reflecting Middle East war price pass-through concerns.
β¦ RELATED STORYLINEUS 30Y at 5.2% 19-yr high, 10Y 4.67% 1-yr high jointly
US 30-year Treasury at 5.2% post-2007 high, 10-year at 4.67% 1-year high simultaneously. Iran war oil shock and inflation re-acceleration drove full retreat of 2026 cut bets, with hike possibility being discussed.
β¦ RELATED STORYLINEEurozone inflation rebounds to 3%, ECB 'all measures if needed' stance
Eurozone inflation rebounded to 3% from sub-2% after Iran war impact. Villeroy France Central Bank 'every measure needed', Sleijpen Netherlands 'all powers to restore price stability', year-end 4% forecast rising.
β¦ RELATED STORYLINEBOJ Vice Gov Himino reaffirms hike path with Middle East caveat
BOJ Vice Gov Himino in 5/26 Diet response confirmed continuing rate hike stance. Timing and pace depend on Middle East impact on Japan economy and prices, markets pricing 80% June 15-16 hike, USD/JPY at 159 range.
β¦ RELATED STORYLINEUS April durable goods orders -6.3% plunge, 5/28 PCE pivotal
US April durable goods new orders fell -6.3% MoM, reversing from March's +0.8%. April PCE on 5/28 (vs March headline 3.5%, core 3.2%) will determine Warsh's first FOMC (6/16-17) and bond market direction.
β¦ RELATED STORYLINE30Y at 5.08%, 10Y at 4.57%: bond vigilantes pressure new Warsh Fed
After Trump installed Warsh as Fed Chair on 22nd, 30-year auction stopped at 5.058%, highest since 2007. The 10-year closed at 4.57% and 30-year at 5.08%, turning the 6/17 first FOMC into a stress test.
β¦ RELATED STORYLINEJune FOMC hold odds 65%; cut bets vanish, hike narrative emerges
At Warsh's first 6/16-17 FOMC, hold odds at 3.50-3.75% measured at 65%, and Yardeni said a July hike is unavoidable for the Fed to placate bond vigilantes.
β¦ RELATED STORYLINEUSD/JPY breaks 159; Tokyo CPI 1.4% eases BOJ hike pressure
Yen closed past 159 on 22nd, two consecutive weeks of weakness, and April Tokyo core CPI slowed to a 4-year low of 1.4%, easing near-term BOJ hike pressure but reviving the 160 intervention level.
β¦ RELATED STORYLINEECB holds at 2% third meeting; eurozone CPI 3% raises June hike scenario
ECB held the policy rate at 2% on 4/30 for the third consecutive meeting; eurozone inflation at 3% and Q1 GDP slowed to 0.8%. Lagarde signaled judgment in 6 weeks, with a 25bp June hike to 2.25% under discussion.
β¦ RELATED STORYLINEDXY retreats to 98.96; 5/28 April PCE release is watershed
DXY closed 0.28% down at 98.9645 on 25th, testing the 99 range bottom. The 4/28 April PCE release (March headline 3.5%, core 3.2%) will drive Warsh's first FOMC and bond market direction.
Warsh becomes Fed chair, 97% probability of June FOMC hold
Kevin Warsh was sworn in as 17th Federal Reserve chairman on 5/22. June 16-17 first FOMC will release dot plot, with CME FedWatch pricing 97% hold probability. Warsh's first press conference tone will be a key variable for the year's rate path.
β¦ RELATED STORYLINEUS 10Y 4.56%, 30Y 5.08%, long-term yield burden persists
On 5/23, US 10-year Treasury yield fell to 4.56% on easing inflation concerns, a roughly week low. However, 30-year remained at 5.082% as of 5/22, staying above 5% and leaving long-end supply burden in the market.
β¦ RELATED STORYLINEJapan April core CPI 1.4%, lowest in 4 years
Japan's April core CPI rose just 1.4% year-over-year, the lowest since March 2022. Ex-fresh food and energy slowed to 1.9%, undershooting BOJ's 2% target for 3 consecutive months. Justification for further hikes weakened at the 6/16 BOJ meeting.
β¦ RELATED STORYLINECBO projects FY2026 deficit $1.9T at 5.8% of GDP
US Congressional Budget Office projects FY2026 federal deficit at $1.9T (5.8% of GDP). Net interest costs cross $1T for the first time, doubling to $2.1T by 2036, and federal debt rises to 120% of GDP.
G7 finance ministers in Paris discuss macro imbalances, Middle East inflation
G7 finance ministers and central bank governors meeting 5/18-19 in Paris focused on reducing macro imbalances. ECB held April deposit rate at 2.0%, but Middle East conflict pushed eurozone April inflation to 3%, with markets pricing further hikes in June and September.
β¦ RELATED STORYLINEKevin Warsh confirmed as next Fed chair, June FOMC pressure for rate cuts mounts
Kevin Warsh narrowly passed Senate confirmation 54-45 as Powell's successor. Markets await his first FOMC decision on June 16-17 and how he responds to Trump's rate-cut demands.
β¦ RELATED STORYLINEUS 30-year Treasury yields stick at 5%, fiscal deficit fears pressure bonds
On May 22, 30-year Treasury yields closed at 5.07% and 10-year yields at 4.56%. Tax cut passage adding 3.4 trillion dollars in deficits over the next decade and inflation rekindle fears are keeping long-end yields elevated.
β¦ RELATED STORYLINEJapan April core CPI 1.4%, 4-year low weakens BOJ rate hike case
Japan's April core CPI came in at 1.4%, below 1.7% consensus and the lowest since March 2022. Missing the 2% target for four straight months weakens the case for a June rate hike.
β¦ RELATED STORYLINEJapan Finance Minister Katayama pledges yen intervention at Paris G7
Japan's Finance Minister Katayama reaffirmed on May 19-20 at Paris G7 that Japan stands ready to intervene against excessive yen volatility. US Treasury Secretary Vincent endorsed BOJ policy and shared yen stability goals.
β¦ RELATED STORYLINECBO projects 2026 US budget deficit at $1.9 trillion, 5.8% of GDP
CBO projects fiscal year 2026 deficit at 1.9 trillion dollars or 5.8% of GDP, rising to 6.7% by 2036. Tax cuts add 1.4 trillion dollars in deficits with public debt ratio rising from 101% to 120% of GDP.
US 30-year yield hits 5.12% 19-year high; 10-year climbs to 4.60% as duration selling accelerates
30-year yields surged to 5.121% May 19, testing 2007 highs, while 10-year yields held 4.60%, as Iran war duration concerns and fiscal deficit worries trigger bond selling.
β¦ RELATED STORYLINEFed Chair Warsh to chair first FOMC June 16-17; CME shows 97% hold probability, Polymarket 70% no cuts in 2026
Kevin Warsh was confirmed May 13 in a narrow 54-45 Senate vote and will chair his first FOMC. CME FedWatch reflects 97% hold probability while Polymarket prices 70% odds of no rate cuts this year.
β¦ RELATED STORYLINEEurozone April CPI accelerates to 3.0% 7-month high, ECB mandate at risk
Eurozone April CPI rebounded from 2.6% to 3.0%, hitting 7-month highs and exceeding ECB's 2% target by 1 percentage point. Energy prices surged 10.8%, 2023 February high.
β¦ RELATED STORYLINEJapan 10-year JGB yields break 2.79%, 30-year high, BOJ June hike bets intensify
Japanese 10-year yields surpassed 2.8% May 20, hitting 30-year highs since September 1996. Q1 GDP growth of 0.5% fueled BOJ June hike bets as global bond selling accelerated.
β¦ RELATED STORYLINEChina PBOC holds LPR unchanged 12 straight months; 1-year 3.0%, 5-year 3.5%
People's Bank of China held May 20 LPR at 3.0% (1-year) and 3.5% (5-year) for the 12th consecutive month amid April industrial production/retail sales weakness and PPI rebound pressures.
β¦ RELATED STORYLINEUS 30-year yields pierce 5.2%, 19-year high; 10Y at 4.63%
Iran war duration and oil spike reignited inflation fears. Treasuries hit 19-year, 16-month peaks.
β¦ RELATED STORYLINEFed rate-cut odds collapse to 33% as inflation resurfaces
Polymarket flipped from 90% hold odds to 67% zero-cut odds. Warsh's June FOMC flags regime shift.
β¦ RELATED STORYLINEDollar index 99.4 six-week high; inflation-led strong dollar rally
DXY surged to 99.36. War-driven oil prices, Fed hold expectations fuel dollar bids.
UK April CPI 2.8%, below forecast; energy cap helps, motor fuel hits +23%
BOE rate-hike case weakened. GBP/USD bounced. Housing inflation collapsed 5.3%-1.4%.
China PBOC holds LPR 12 straight months at 3.0%; framework shift underway
1Y at 3.0%, 5Y 3.5% record lows. War shock, import inflation caution. Overnight rates new policy anchor.
10-year 4.68%, 30-year 5.2% spike 16-18 months high
Iran war duration and oil surge reignited inflation fears; US Treasuries hit 16-18 month and 18-year peaks. Market priced out year-end cuts, 40% odds year-end hike.
β¦ RELATED STORYLINEWarsh confirmed Fed chair 54-45 narrowest margin ever
Kevin Warsh won Senate nod 54-45, slimmest tally ever. Facing Trump rate-cut pressure, maiden FOMC June 16-17 flags monetary regime shift expectations.
β¦ RELATED STORYLINEApril CPI 3.8% highest in 3 years; energy 17.9% soars
US April consumer inflation 3.8% YoY, highest since May 2023. Energy 17.9%, gasoline 28.4% spike, commanding 40%+ of headline; core CPI stuck 2.8%.
β¦ RELATED STORYLINEBrent $110, gold $4,577 both rally on macro fears
Brent crude surged $110.08/barrel; gold holds $4,577/oz record vicinity. Iran turmoil extension and inflation hedge demand lock commodity broad strength.
BOJ holds 0.75%; FY26 core inflation forecast jumps 2.8%
Bank of Japan held policy rate 0.75% April, 6-3 hawkish split. Iran oil impact bumped FY26 core inflation outlook 1.9% to 2.8%, signaling more hike room.
β¦ RELATED STORYLINEU.S. April CPI jumps to 3.8%, highest in 33 months
Headline rose 0.6% month-on-month and 3.8% year-on-year since May 2023 peak. Energy jumped 3.8%, driving 40% of the move, while core held at 2.8%. Iran escalation now in the inflation data.
β¦ RELATED STORYLINE10-year U.S. Treasury yields hit 4.6%, 1-year high as duration sells
May 15 close at 4.59%, Friday's +10bp breach confirms peak-of-year trend. Inflation surprise and war-driven macro fears stoke duration rout; Japan and Europe follow higher.
β¦ RELATED STORYLINEFed holds 3.50β3.75%, signals one 2026 rate cut at most
April 29 FOMC marked three straight holds; Miran lone dissent for 25bp cut. Powell's term ended May 15; Warsh await confirmation. One cut possible by year-end, no more.
β¦ RELATED STORYLINESouth Korean April CPI rises 2.6%, marking 21-month high
Year-on-year 2.6%βhighest since July 2024. Transport up 9.7%, housing up 1.7%. Bank of Korea's incoming Shin Hyun-song likely holds 2.5% steady at May 28 debut meeting.
β¦ RELATED STORYLINEU.S. April nonfarm payrolls beat at +115,000 vs. +55,000 expected
Forecast miss to upside; unemployment holds at 4.3%, hourly wage growth slows to 3.6%. Healthcare and transportation drove gains; information and federal employment shrank.
β¦ RELATED STORYLINEWarsh confirmed as Fed chair 54β45; takes office May 15
Kevin Warsh won Senate confirmation May 13 with a narrow 54β45 vote. He promised to enforce price stability and run a 'noisier' FOMC. First meeting June 16β17.
β¦ RELATED STORYLINECPI hits 3.8%, highest since May 2023; rate-cut odds collapse
April CPI rose 0.6% month-over-month and 3.8% year-over-year. Core CPI printed 2.8%. Gasoline alone surged 28.4%. CME odds of a 2026 rate hike now top 30%.
β¦ RELATED STORYLINEPPI jumps 1.4% month-over-month, 6.0% annuallyβlargest since March 2022
April PPI surprised consensus by 90 basis points, hitting 1.4% month-over-month. The annual print of 6.0% marks the highest since December 2022. Tariff pass-through is now evident.
β¦ RELATED STORYLINE10-year yield jumps to 4.6%; 30-year at 5.12%, highest in one year
Friday saw the 10-year soar 10 bp to 4.6% and the 30-year nearly 11 bp higher to 5.121%βboth fresh 12-month highs. CPI and PPI surprises have compressed long-end demand.
β¦ RELATED STORYLINEDollar index climbs to 99.3; gold nears $4,540 on supply shock fears
The DXY broke through 99.3βa one-month high and up over 1% on the week. Gold surged to record highs near $4,540. Iran-war-induced supply shocks are boosting both the dollar and safe-haven demand simultaneously.
U.S. Warsh sworn in as Fed chair May 15; June FOMC debut becomes pivot point
Senate confirms 54-45. Though Trump's pick, Warsh signals autonomy. June 16-17 FOMC shapes policy outlook.
β¦ RELATED STORYLINEU.S. May Michigan sentiment plunges to all-time 48.2; expected inflation 4.5%
April 49.8 slides to 48.2, missing consensus 49.5. Oil and tariff burdens signal consumer retrenchment. Stagflation fears reignite.
β¦ RELATED STORYLINEU.S. April industrial production +0.7%, beats estimate two-fold; manufacturing rebounds
March's -0.3% reverses; consensus +0.3% handily exceeded. Capacity utilization rebounds. Tariff headwinds persist yet recovery signal shrinks June rate-cut case.
U.S. April CPI +3.8% YoY, PPI +1.4% MoM worst in four years
Headline CPI highest since May 2023. Monthly PPI surge worst since March 2022. June FOMC hold probability locks in at 98%.
β¦ RELATED STORYLINEWon/dollar touches 1,477, settles at 1,473 after BOK signals ample dollar liquidity
May 15 intraday spike to 1,477.18 won after volatility surge. BOK governor's "sufficient dollar liquidity" comment shores up defense.
β¦ RELATED STORYLINEU.S. PPI surges 1.4% MoM in April, hits 6.0% YoY for first time in three years
BLS shock: April PPI +1.4% beat consensus +0.5% by 3x. Annual +6.0% marks biggest move since December 2022. Services +1.2%, energy +7.8%.
β¦ RELATED STORYLINEWarsh wins Fed chair confirmation 54-45, narrowest vote on record
Senate confirms Kevin Warsh on 5/13 with only one Dem defection (Fetterman, Pa.). Faces first FOMC 6/17 amid Trump rate-cut demands.
β¦ RELATED STORYLINEU.S. April CPI hits 3.8%, highest since May 2023, on Iran oil shock
BLS reports 3.8% annual CPI, +0.6% monthly. Energy +17.9%, gasoline +28.4%, beef +14.8%, airfare +20.7%. Real wage growth turns negative at -0.5%.
β¦ RELATED STORYLINETen-year Treasury yield hits 4.49%, highest since July 2025, as traders price rate hikes
After PPI shock, 10-year jumps to 4.49%. 30-year breaks 5%. Traders now betting Fed rate hikes within 12 months.
Won breaks through 1,492 per dollar, dollar strength accelerates on U.S. inflation shock
USD/KRW hits 1,492.01 on 5/14. U.S. PPI-CPI combo spurs Fed rate-hike repricing, fueling dollar rally. Bank of Korea May 28 meeting in focus.
April PPI +1.4% MoM, biggest surge since March 2022
Final goods prices nearly tripled consensus +0.5%, YoY 6.0% since December 2022. Iran war gasoline +15.6% re-ignited pipeline inflation.
β¦ RELATED STORYLINEWarsh narrowly wins Fed chair 54-45
Succeeds Powell, takes first FOMC June 16-17. Trump publicly called for rate cuts; PPI acceleration compounds policy-independence fears.
β¦ RELATED STORYLINE10-year Treasury 4.49%, highest in 10 months
Briefly touched 4.49% post-PPI shock, closed 4.481%. Inflation re-acceleration plus Warsh fears hit simultaneously. Risk assets pressed.
β¦ RELATED STORYLINEEurozone CPI April 3.0%, highest since September 2023
Energy +10.9% pulled headline from March 2.6% to 3.0%. Gap to ECB's 2% target widens; rate-cut timeline questioned.
β¦ RELATED STORYLINEBank of Korea new chief faces hawkish stress test May 28
Shin Hyun-sung takes first MPC meeting with rates at 2.5% seven consecutive holds. Signaled tightening may be needed if inflation spreads to expectations amid Middle East oil and won weakness.
U.S. April CPI +3.8% YoY, core +2.8%; highest since May 2023
Headline CPI rose +0.6% MoM and +3.8% YoY, jumping 0.5 percentage points from March's +3.3%. Core rose +0.4% MoM and +2.8% YoY, the fastest monthly core increase since January 2025. Energy gained 3.8%, accounting for more than 40% of the total increase, while gasoline rose 28.4% YoY.
β¦ RELATED STORYLINE10-year at 4.45%, DXY 98.29; year-end hike bets reach 30%
After the CPI shock, the 2-year yield rose 3bp to 3.98% and the 10-year rose 4bp to 4.45%. DXY gained 0.3% to 98.29. CME FedWatch showed traders lifting the probability of a Fed rate hike by year-end to roughly 30%, while equity futures fell.
β¦ RELATED STORYLINEBrent tops $105 as Hormuz blockade reignites inflation
WTI rose about 1% to $99.06, while Brent climbed to $105.07. Aramco's CEO warned of roughly 100 million barrels of weekly supply losses. Trump's comment that the U.S.-Iran ceasefire is fragile, plus halted Hormuz traffic, widened the risk premium and added to global inflation pressure.
β¦ RELATED STORYLINEFed split 8-4 in April; Powell's final meeting, Warsh confirmation nears
The Fed held rates at 3.5-3.75% for a third straight meeting, but four officials dissented, including Miran's vote for a 25bp cut, marking the largest split since October 1992. The Senate Banking Committee advanced Kevin Warsh's chair nomination, setting up a floor vote in the week of May 11 and raising the possibility that the June 16-17 FOMC will be chaired by a new Fed chief.
β¦ RELATED STORYLINEGold retreats from $4,700; BOK expected to signal tightening shift May 28
Spot gold fell 1.22% to $4,678/oz, down 16% from January's record $5,589, as investors took profits. The Bank of Korea held its policy rate at 2.5% for a seventh straight meeting in April, but markets expect new Governor Shin Hyun-song's first May 28 meeting to signal a tightening turn, with the first hike in July and a year-end rate near 3.0%.
U.S. April CPI released tonight
BLS publishes April CPI at 21:30 Korea time on May 12. Consensus: headline +0.6% month-over-month, +3.7% year-over-year; core +0.3% MoM, +2.7% YoY. Gasoline prices (March +21.2%) are the key variable.
β¦ RELATED STORYLINEFed holds 3.50β3.75% with four dissents
The FOMC held rates at 3.50β3.75% on April 29; four dissents marked the largest opposition since 1992. Chair Powell's tenure ends mid-May, though he remains on the board. The dot plot signals one additional 2026 cut.
β¦ RELATED STORYLINE10-year Treasury yields 4.39%
The 10-year closed May 8 at 4.38%; the 2-year at 3.90%, giving a 2-10 spread of +48bp. May 11's rally to 4.39% reflected ceasefire collapse and oil rebound as bond headwinds.
β¦ RELATED STORYLINEECB holds 2.00% for third straight
The ECB left deposit rates at 2.00% on April 30. Eurozone headline inflation is 3.0%; core 2.2%. Q1 GDP growth of 0.8% year-over-year disappointed. Lagarde cited mounting upside inflation and downside growth risks.
β¦ RELATED STORYLINEBoJ holds 0.75% in 6-3 split; yen weakens
The BoJ held at 0.75% on April 28 in a 6-3 vote; three members backed a 1.0% hike. FY2026 core inflation guidance rose to 2.8% from 1.9%; growth slashed to 0.5% from 1.0%. Japan-U.S. rate gap of ~300bp keeps the yen under pressure. DXY traded near 97.84.
β¦ RELATED STORYLINEFed holds steady at 3.50β3.75%; sees only one 2026 cut
The Federal Reserve held April 29, maintaining the 3.50β3.75% range. One dissenter (Miran) pushed for a 25bp cut; three others opposed easing. The Summary of Economic Projections signaled just one rate cut for all of 2026.
β¦ RELATED STORYLINEApril jobs report: 115,000 vs. 55,000 consensus
Non-farm payroll gains hit 115,000 in April, crushing the 55,000 consensus but slowing from March's 185,000. Jobless rate held 4.3%; wage growth came in at 3.6% YoY, below the 3.8% forecast.
β¦ RELATED STORYLINEECB holds, signals June hike discussion forthcoming
The ECB held its deposit rate at 2.00% unanimously April 30, though President Lagarde confirmed rate-hike deliberations were 'substantive.' Eurozone April inflation spiked to 3.0%, spurring markets to price June-July hike odds.
β¦ RELATED STORYLINEBank of Korea signals rate-hike consideration; May 28 is the test
Bank of Korea held its benchmark rate at 2.5% for a seventh consecutive month in April, but a senior official signaled May 4 it was 'time to consider rate hike.' Incoming Governor Shin's May 28 debut meeting will be the inflection point.
β¦ RELATED STORYLINETen-year yields 4.38%; DXY softens 1%
On May 8, the US 10-year yield closed at 4.38%; 2-year at 3.90%; 30-year at 4.95%. The dollar index fell 0.23% to 97.84, down 0.99% over the past month, approaching pre-conflict levels.
BoJ holds at 0.75%; yen near 162 pressure points
Bank of Japan held its policy rate at 0.75% April 28 via a 6-3 split vote, downgrading 2026 growth to 0.5% from 1.0% while lifting core inflation to 2.8% from 1.9%. The yen trades near 162, facing depreciation pressure; markets expect another July hike.
β¦ RELATED STORYLINEUS CPI preview: 3.7% headline on May 12
April CPI due 8:30 ET May 12 is expected to show 0.6% MoM and 3.7% YoY. March saw a 0.9% MoM jumpβthe largest since June 2022βas energy spiked. The base year resets to December 2024.
β¦ RELATED STORYLINEU.S. April Non-Farm Employment 115,000; Double Consensus But Momentum Slows
April non-farm employment added 115,000, exceeding Dow Jones consensus of 55,000, but declined from 185,000 in March. Unemployment remained at 4.3%. Hourly wages rose 0.2% month-over-month and 3.6% year-over-year, both below expectations (0.3% and 3.8%).
Trump Issues July 4 Ultimatum to EU; Threatens 25% Auto Tariff Increase
Trump warned the EU that failure to ratify a trade agreement by July 4 would result in 'much higher' tariffs and reconfirmed 25% tariffs on EU vehicles and trucks. The next U.S.-EU trade negotiation is scheduled for May 10.
BOJ Holds Policy Rate at 0.75%; Maintains Highest Level Since 1995
The Bank of Japan voted 6-3 to hold its policy rate at 0.75% in April, the highest since September 1995. Inflation forecasts were revised upward amid Middle East-driven energy price spikes.
β¦ RELATED STORYLINEChina's PBOC Holds Benchmark LPR Steady for 11 Consecutive Months
The People's Bank of China held both one-year and five-year LPRs unchanged for 11 consecutive months, preserving policy ammunition. Q1 GDP grew 5.0%, with 2026 targets set at 4.5β5%.
U.S. March Headline PCE at 3.5%; Oil Surge Shakes Disinflationary Path
Per Treasury TBAC, March headline PCE rose to 3.5% year-over-year, up 1.1 percentage points from 2.4% a year earlier. Core CPI moderated to 2.6%. Q1 2026 gasoline prices surged 21.2%, reigniting inflation pressure.
β¦ RELATED STORYLINEFederal Reserve Maintains Policy Rate at 3.50β3.75%
The FOMC unanimously held the policy rate at 3.50β3.75%. Eight members voted in favor; four dissented, with Miran preferring a 25bp cut and Hammack, Kashkari, and Logan opposing accommodative language. This marks the highest dissent count since late 1992.
β¦ RELATED STORYLINEU.S. March Nonfarm Payroll +178K; Unemployment at 4.3%
BLS data for March showed nonfarm employment gains of 178,000 with unemployment steady at 4.3%. Growth concentrated in healthcare, construction, and transportation/warehousing; federal government headcount declined.
Initial Jobless Claims Rise to 200K; Four-Week Average at 203,250
For the week ending 5/2, initial jobless claims reached 200,000, up 10,000 from the prior week. The four-week moving average stands at 203,250, down 4,500. Despite Big Tech workforce reductions tied to AI infrastructure investment, the broader labor market remains resilient.
Norges Bank Delivers Surprise 25bp Rate Hike to 4.25%
Norges Bank raised the policy rate to 4.25% on 5/7, a 25bp increase. Bloomberg survey respondents had expected a hold; only 5 of 17 anticipated a hike. This marks Western Europe's first tightening since the Iran war erupted.
β¦ RELATED STORYLINEU.S. 10-Year Yield Declines to 4.34%; 30-Year at 4.93%
On 5/7, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield fell 2bp to 4.34%, with 30-year yields at 4.93%. Oil price declines and the trade court tariff ruling reduced inflation expectations, drawing buying interest.
FOMC Splits 8-4 on May 29; First Time Since 1992 Four Dissents
The Federal Reserve maintained the target range at 3.50β3.75%. Lael Brainard and Neel Kashkari dissented on dovish grounds, while Beth Hammack and TomΓ‘s Kalikaki opposed easing, marking a historic shift in dissent patterns.
U.S. April Layoffs Total 83,000, Up 38% Monthly; Year-to-Date Trend Down 50%
While April separations spiked in tech-driven restructurings, cumulative first-quarter layoff announcements remain 50% below year-ago levels due to generous severance packages suppressing unemployment claims, which stayed below 230,000.
U.S.-China Tariffs Average 33% Through August
Average effective tariff comprises 3.4% MFN rate plus Section 301, IEEPA fentanyl (20%), and reciprocal tariffs (10%), totaling 33% weighted average. Trump is coordinating a May visit to Beijing with Xi Jinpingβthe first presidential visit in eight years.
Brent Crude at $106.52; $44 Higher Than Year-Ago Levels
On May 6, Brent declined $10.03 from prior close. EIA forecasts Q2 average peaking near $115 before gradual stabilization.
South Korea GDP Growth Forecast Improves to 2.0% for 2026; Recovery from 1.2% in 2025
ING cites political stability and semiconductor demand driving South Korea's recovery outlook, though real estate weakness and external demand headwinds present downside risks.
Fed Maintains Policy Rates at 3.50-3.75%; Record Post-1992 Dissent
The most dissenting votes since 1992 in this meeting signal policy path divergence. JPMorgan expects additional holds through year-end.
β¦ RELATED STORYLINEU.S. Core PCE at 3.2%, Headline PCE at 3.5%; Inflation Remains Sticky
University of Michigan one-year inflation expectations rose to 4.8%. Fed officials characterize recent data as 'bad news.'
New Jobless Claims at 200,000; Labor Market Stable
Week ending May 2: new claims at 200,000 (vs. 205,000 expected), beating expectations. Continuing claims at 1.766 million, the lowest since January 2024.
Eurozone GDP Grows 0.1% QoQ; Inflation Rebounds to 3.0%, Stagflation Risks Rising
Eurozone growth slows to 0.1% while inflation rebounds to 3.0%, deepening policy dilemma for the ECB.
South Korea's April CPI Hits 21-Month High; Oil-Driven Spillovers
South Korea's April consumer price growth reached a 21-month high amid U.S.-Iran tensions, spreading across transportation, travel, and general living costs.
β¦ RELATED STORYLINEFed maintains policy rate at 3.50-3.75%
Most dissenting votes since 1992, indicating deepening policy divisions.
Headline CPI 3.3% YoY, core 2.6%
PCE at 3.5% and core PCE at 3.2%, showing more persistent inflation.
Quarterly core PCE accelerates to 4.3%
Short-term inflation expectations also rising to 4.8% in one-year Michigan survey.
Fed Chair Powell's tenure ends May 15
April FOMC is the final meeting; successor selection becomes a market variable.
Iran-originating oil prices are the macro switch
Oil price stability supports earnings and AI momentum; renewed increases trigger stagflation concerns.
Fed Maintains Policy Rates at April FOMC Meeting
The Federal Reserve held policy rates steady at 3.50β3.75% at its April 29 FOMC meeting, marking the third consecutive hold.
Core PCE at 3.2%, Core CPI at 2.6%βBoth Above Target
Core PCE inflation remains at 3.2% year-over-year and Core CPI at 2.6%, both persisting above the Fed's 2% target and fueling hawkish sentiment.
Oil Price Surge of 76% Introduces Inflation Transmission Variable
Oil prices rose 76% between late February and early April, prompting mixed Fed assessments regarding the degree of pass-through to core inflation.
Dimon and Warsh Warn on Credit Cycle and Bond Volatility Risks
JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon and Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh have flagged credit cycle and bond market volatility risks, emphasizing the need for careful positioning.
U.S. Gasoline Averages $4.46 per GallonβFour-Year High
Gasoline prices have risen $1.47 per gallon since the start of the Iran conflict, reaching $4.46 per gallon and nearing four-year highs.
Fed Holds at 3.5-3.75% With Rare 8-4 Dissent
The FOMC voted for a third consecutive hold, but dissenters called for a 25 basis point cut and three members opposed forward rate-cut language. The 4-dissent count marks the first instance since October 1992.
Powell's Tenure Expires in May; Walsh Confirmation Imminent
Fed Chair Jay Powell's term concludes in May. Kevin Walsh faces Senate confirmation on May 11th and is expected to chair the June 16-17 FOMC meeting.
April Non-Farm Employment Consensus Weakens
Economists expect April new job additions of 55,000-70,000 and a stable 4.3% unemployment rateβa sharp decline from March's 178,000. Release scheduled for May 8th.
March CPI Accelerates to 3.3% Year-Over-Year
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported March CPI at 3.3%, up from January's 2.4%, driven by energy and transportation components.
March JOLTs: Job Openings Hold at 6.9M
March job openings remained flat at 6.9 million; hires increased to 5.6 million while layoffs stayed stable at 1.9 million.
Fed FOMC Holds at 3.5%-3.75%; Unprecedented Dissent
The largest number of dissenting votes since October 1992. One member voted for a cut; three opposed dovish language.
Core PCE at 3.2%; Core CPI at 2.6%βBoth Above Target
Headline PCE reached 3.5% in March, reflecting energy price pressures. Analysts monitor the transmission of the 60% oil price increase to core inflation.
Barclays Raises 2026 Brent Outlook to $85-$100 per Barrel
Oil supply uncertainty persists, with crude reaching $114.66 per barrel on April 30.
World Bank April Outlook: 2026 Energy +24%; Emerging Market Inflation 5.1%
Middle East conflict represents the largest commodity shock since Russia's 2022 Ukraine invasion, transmitting an additional 1 percentage point to emerging market inflation.
U.S. New Mortgage Rate Averages 6.37%; Up 7 Basis Points
Geopolitical tensions and sticky inflation prevent entry into the sub-6% range, with mid-range rates forecast through summer.
Fed Holds at 3.50β3.75% on April 29, Records First 8-4 Dissent Since 1992
Economic activity remains solid, employment has moderated, and inflation is characterized as elevated owing to energy shocks. Historic four-member dissent signaled policy discord.
Barclays Raises 2026 Brent Forecast to $100β¦Could Reach $110 Under Adverse Scenarios
Upward revision from prior $85 guidance. Protracted Hormuz disruptions could trigger $110 pricing under worst-case assumptions.
Iran War Powers Resolution 60-Day Deadline Arrives May 1
Congressional debate centers on whether the 60-day window commenced April 29 or May 1, with implications for War Powers enforcement and further military authorization.
EIA Projects 2026 Q2 Average Brent at $115 per Barrel
Projection assumes gradual supply relief. April OPEC production shutdowns total 9.1 million barrels daily across six member nations.
US Average Gasoline at $4.30, Four-Year High
Per AAA, May 1 reading stands at $4.30, with select measurements reaching $4.39. Household discretionary income faces pronounced pressure.
April 2026 Β· 148
Q1 GDP 2.0%, Accelerating from Q4 2025's 0.5%
BEA advance estimate released. Investment, exports, consumption, and government spending all expanded; nominal GDP grew 5.64% to reach $31.856T. However, fell short of consensus 2.3%.
PCE Inflation at 4.5%, Largest Quarterly Acceleration in Years
Q1 2026 PCE deflator surged from Q4's 2.9% to 4.5%, more than double the Federal Reserve's 2% target. Quarterly acceleration marks the largest in years.
FOMC on Hold, 8-4 Split Marks Largest Dissent Since 1992
Federal Reserve held federal funds rate at 3.5-3.75% on April 29. Miran advocated for 25bp cut; three members opposed guidance on future cuts. First four-dissent decision in 32 years.
Initial Jobless Claims 189K, Lowest Since 1969
Claims for week ending April 25 declined 26K to 189K, significantly below consensus of 212K. Two-year low for continuing claims at 1.766M.
Average US Tariff Rate Steady at 11.8%; CAPE Refund System Activated
April average tariff rate remains 11.8% despite Supreme Court's partial IEEPA ruling. CBP activated CAPE system on April 20, beginning processing of IEEPA refund requests.
FOMC Votes to Hold Rates at 3.5-3.75%
Economic activity remains solid but employment is flat; inflation faces upward pressure from energy prices. The Fed explicitly cited Middle Eastern uncertainty.
FOMC Records Four DissentsβHighest Disagreement Since 1992
Governor Miran voted for a rate cut; three others opposed the easing bias language in the statement. Powell's final meeting ended in visible division.
ECB Holds Deposit Rate at 2%; Acknowledges Escalating Risks
The ECB maintained its 2% deposit rate while explicitly acknowledging that Middle Eastern conflict has heightened economic risks for the eurozone.
BOJ Holds at 0.75%; 6-3 Split with Hawkish Dissenters
In its April 27-28 meeting, the BOJ maintained its policy rate at 0.75%. However, three board members advocated for a 1% increase, signaling hawkish dissent.
Initial Jobless Claims: 189,000 for Week Ending April 25
Initial jobless claims fell to 189,000 for the week ending April 25, down 26,000. The insured unemployment rate stands at 1.2%, signaling labor market stability.
FOMC 4/29 Hold Imminent β 8-4 Dissent Possible; Largest Since 1992
Fed funds rate 3.50β3.75% maintenance priced at 100%. Miran favors 25bp cut; Hammack, Kashkari, Logan oppose dovish guidance. Chair Powell's final meeting.
World Bank β 2026 Energy Surge 24%; Highest Since 2022
4/28 Commodity Outlook: Middle East conflict represents largest four-year energy price shock. Hormuz blockade implies 10 million barrel-per-day supply disruption.
USTR 4/28-29 Forced Labor Tariff Hearing β 60 Nations, Section 301 Review
Trump administration investigating non-compliance with forced labor import bans across 60 economies. Follows 4/2 Section 232 announcement (steel/aluminum/copper restructuring; branded drugs capped at 100%) escalating pressure.
U.S. Average Effective Tariff Rate 11.8% β Tax Foundation
Restructured after February 2026 Supreme Court ruling on IEEPA tariff illegality. Rate settled at 11.8%, down from 2025 peak but still at highest level since the 1980s.
China Q1 GDP 5.0% β Industrial Output 6.1%; Export Strength
NBS announcement (4/16): Q1 GDP 33.4 trillion yuan ($4.9T), YoY 5.0%, accelerating from 4.5% in Q4 2025. However, 'strong supply/weak demand' imbalance flagged.
FOMC Maintains Rates at 3.5%-3.75% with Four Dissents
The FOMC voted to hold the benchmark rate at 3.5%-3.75%. Four officials (Musalem, Hammack, Kashkari, Logan) dissented in favor of a 25-basis-point cut.
March Nonfarm Payrolls Rise 178,000; Jobless Rate 4.3%
Nonfarm payroll employment grew by 178,000 in March, exceeding consensus, while the unemployment rate ticked slightly lower to 4.3%, confirming underlying labor market strength.
BOJ Maintains 0.75% Rate with Hawkish Dissents; 6-3 Split
The Bank of Japan held policy rates at 0.75% in its April 27-28 meeting, but three officials dissented in favor of rate increases, marking a hawkish hold with a 6-3 split.
Trump Average Tariff Rate: 11.8% After Court Adjustments
Following partial Supreme Court invalidation and adjustments, the effective average tariff rate in April stands at 11.8%.
USTR Holds Forced Labor Hearings for 60 Economies
The USTR will conduct Section 301 hearings April 28-29 on forced labor goods imported from 60 trading partners.
Eurozone April Inflation Jumps to 3%; Energy Drives Increase
Eurozone April flash inflation spiked to 3%. The ECB noted simultaneous upside inflation and downside growth risks have intensified.
Fed Expected to Hold at 3.5%-3.75% on April 29
The FOMC is likely to maintain the benchmark at 3.5%-3.75%. Board member Miran voted against a 25bp cut, and Federal Reserve presidents from Cleveland, Minneapolis, and Dallas also dissented.
ECB Projects 2026 Inflation at 2.6%
The ECB projects 2026 inflation at 2.6% with moderation expected in 2027, maintaining the main refinancing rate at 2.15%, the deposit rate at 2%, and the marginal lending rate at 2.4%.
U.S. Initial Jobless Claims: 214,000
For the week ending April 18, initial jobless claims totaled 214,000 (up 6,000 from the prior week). The following week claims fell to 189,000, reaching the lowest level since 1969.
UN Secretary-General Warns of Global Food Emergency
UN Secretary-General Guterres warned that the U.S.-Israel war with Iran could trigger sharply elevated fuel, fertilizer, and commodity prices, potentially sparking a global food emergency.
US March CPI +3.3% β Highest in Roughly Two Years
Rising global energy prices reignite inflation.
Fed April Meeting Expected to Hold Steady β Potential 8-4 Split
Target rate expected to remain at 3.50-3.75%; some members prefer 25bp rate cut.
IMF: 2026 Global Growth at 3.1% β Below Pre-Pandemic Average
Emerging market inflation resurgence and growth deceleration converge.
US March Payrolls: 178K Added β Unemployment at 4.3%
Healthcare, construction, and transportation lead solid hiring; April forecast at 67K.
Korea April Consumer Inflation Reaches 21-Month High
Iran-conflict-driven oil spike passes through to transportation, travel, and household expenses.
Fed Expected to Hold Rates at 3.50β3.75% in April
Four committee members dissenting in favor of a cutβmost dissents since 1992. May be Powell's final meeting.
March Nonfarm Payroll Growth Moderates to +178K
Unemployment ticks down to 4.3%; ADP private payroll growth estimate for April: +40K.
South Korea Passes $1.77B Supplementary Budget on April 10
Measure designed to absorb U.S.βIran conflict impact; 70% of crude oil sourced from Middle East.
Global Crude Supply Disruption Reaches Record -10.1mb/d
March production fell to 97mb/dβthe largest disruption on record. Hormuz transit curbs ongoing.
South Korea Q1 Exports Hit Record High
AI semiconductor demand drives commodity exports at fastest pace since Q2 2021.
Fed Holds Rates at 3.5-3.75% for Third Consecutive Meeting
The Fed maintained policy rates at 3.5-3.75% at its April meeting amid persistent inflation and upcoming leadership transition, with four dissenting votes in what is a rare occurrence near the end of Chair Powell's term.
Oil Surges 76% from Late February to Early April, Reigniting Inflation Concerns
Brent crude rose more than 76% between late February and early April, emerging as a key variable driving the Fed's return to cautious positioning.
Eurozone April CPI Accelerates to 3.0% from March's 2.6%
Energy costs surged 10.9%, the largest increase since February 2023, pushing eurozone CPI from 2.6% in March to 3.0% in April. The ECB maintained rates at 2%.
ServiceNow Q1 Subscription Revenue +22%, RPO $27.7 Billion
ServiceNow reported first-quarter subscription revenue of $3.671 billion, up 22% year-over-year, with EPS of $0.97 surpassing consensus of $0.80 by 21%. AI commitments are projected at $1.5 billion for 2026.
World Bank Warns of Largest Energy Price Shock in Four Years
The World Bank's Commodity Markets Outlook cautions that Middle East escalation could trigger the largest energy price surge since 2022.
IMF April WEO Formalizes 'War Shadow' Scenario
Base case 3.1%, severe scenario 2.0% growth and 6%+ inflation.
Brent Crude Enters $95 Territory; 650 Million Barrel Cumulative Loss
Energy infrastructure attacks and Hormuz transit constraints disrupt 13 million barrels per day.
U.S. Credit Card Debt Surpasses $1.2 Trillion
25% of borrowers rely on cards for everyday expenses; household resilience weakens.
Emerging Market Growth Revised Down 0.3pp to 3.9%
Energy-importing nations face IMF pressure; currency and fiscal flexibility limited.
Social Security 2026 COLA at 2.8%; FY Inflation at 3.01%
Wage adjustment moderates amid persistent price pressure.
Fed April meeting expected to hold steady (official decision April 29)
Federal funds rate projected to remain at 3.5β3.75% for a third consecutive meeting. While Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, Kansas City's Beth Hammack, and Dallas's Lorie Logan support a pause, some call for rate cuts; however, most oppose dovish language modifications.
U.S. CPI March headline month-on-month: +0.9%; gasoline +21.2%
Largest monthly increase since June 2022. Gasoline alone posted a 21.2% increase, the largest single-month surge in BLS records since 1967.
IMF World Economic Outlook April: 'Global Economy in the Shadow of Conflict'
Released during the April 14 Spring Meetings, the report reflects Middle East energy shocks with downward revisions to emerging market growth forecasts.
U.S. average tariff rate settles at 11.8%
Following the February 2026 Supreme Court ruling that tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act were unlawful, adjustments were made. Finished aluminum, steel, and copper products carry 50% rates; derivatives, 25%.
One-year inflation expectations surge 100 basis points to 4.8%
March: 3.8%; April: 4.8%, exceeding consensus of 4.2%. Largest monthly move since April 2025.
Fed Pauses at 3.5-3.75% on April 29; Four Dissents (Highest Since 1992)
Balancing tariff and energy-driven inflation against labor market softening, the Fed recorded the most dissents since 1992.
March Payrolls +178K; Unemployment Stable at 4.3%
Gains centered on healthcare, construction, and transportation. Unemployment expected to hover at 4.2-4.3% through April.
JOLTS: 6.9M Job Openings; 0.95 Unemployed per Opening
March data showed 6.9M job openings, 5.6M hires, and 5.4M separations, indicating labor market stabilization. Unemployment-to-opening ratio ticked up from 0.91 to 0.95.
April Layoff Announcements Hit 83,387; Up 38% Month-over-Month
Challenger data recorded 83K announced cuts in April, up 38% from March but down 21% year-over-year. AI-related big-tech reductions drove the increase.
30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate at 6.30%, Down 46bps Year-over-Year
Late-April average fixed rate reached 6.30% with 1.23M inventory. Fannie Mae forecasts year-end at 5.7%.
Fed Holds Rates; Four Policymakers Vote Against Status Quoβ1992 Record for Dissent
The FOMC held its policy rate at 3.5-3.75% in April, with Cleveland's Hammack, Minneapolis's Kashkari, Dallas's Logan and Vice Chair Isaacs all dissenting against the holdβthe highest dissent count since 1992.
U.S. March CPI Accelerates to 3.3% Year-over-Year; Energy Surges 12.5%
U.S.-Israel-Iran tensions and Strait of Hormuz blockade drove energy prices up 12.5% annually, pushing headline CPI to 0.9% month-over-month and 3.3% year-over-year, far exceeding the Fed's 2% target.
White House Formalizes Up to 245% China Tariffs; Trade Friction Accelerates
The White House codified cumulative tariffs on select Chinese goods reaching 245% as of April 17, marking the apex of second-term trade tensions as retaliatory cycles perpetuated throughout the month.
U.S. Gasoline Averages $4.30, Diesel $5.80 Per GallonβApril Monthly Peak
EIA data pegged April U.S. retail gasoline at roughly $4.30 per gallon and diesel at $5.80+, marking monthly highs. Global oil supply fell 10.1 million barrels per day in Marchβa record disruptionβdriven by Strait blockade and Middle East infrastructure damage.
Bank Indonesia Rate Hold Consensus; South Korea Faces Fiscal Pivot
All 31 economists in a Reuters poll expect Bank Indonesia to hold at 4.75%, while Seoul navigates supplemental budgets and tax shortfalls, redirecting capital from domestic property to domestic equity and innovation amid consumption weakness.
Fed Holds Policy Rate at 3.50β3.75% (April 29)
FOMC held rates steady April 29; only one dissenter called for a -25bp cut. Energy-driven inflation and stable employment push near-term rate cut odds into the second half.
NY Fed SCE: One-Year Inflation Expectations at 3.6%
New York Fed's Survey of Consumer Expectations shows one-year inflation rising 20 basis points to 3.6%. Long-term anchors remain stable, signaling near-term inflation repricing.
BLS March Employment: +178,000, Unemployment at 4.3%
Nonfarm payrolls added 178,000 jobs in March; unemployment rate held at 4.3% (7.2 million). Healthcare, construction, and transportation drove gains; federal employment declined.
World Bank Commodity Outlook: Energy Prices Rise 24%
World Bank's April Commodity Markets Outlook projects 2026 energy prices 24% higherβthe steepest rise since the 2022 Ukraine invasion.
Global Equity Funds See Fourth Straight Week of Inflows (Through April 15)
Global equity funds posted four consecutive weeks of net inflows through April 15, buoyed by solid earnings reports and ceasefire optimism.
Fed officials appear at Washington Economic Festival global macro session
On April 17, Federal Reserve board member Stephen Miran participated in a global macro panel at the Fed's Washington Economic Festival. Michael Barr spoke at a rural investment conference the same day.
BOJ votes 6-to-3 to hold rates at 0.75%
Takata, Tamura, and Nakagawa dissented in favor of a 1.0% increase. Despite energy concerns from the Iran conflict, the BOJ maintained its highest rate since September 1995.
ECB holds policy rate at 2.15% on April 30
The deposit rate stands at 2.0% and the marginal lending rate at 2.4%. The central bank took a wait-and-see stance amid Middle Eastern inflation concerns and growth weakness.
March nonfarm payrolls add 178k; unemployment holds at 4.3%
The March BLS report showed nonfarm employment up 178k, with healthcare accounting for 76k and ambulatory care services for 54k. The labor force participation rate held at 61.9%.
Fed projects 'modest' Q1 GDP growth as immigration restrains labor supply
Q1 GDP growth appears modest, with business investment offsetting consumer weakness. The sharp decline in net immigration during 2025 is restraining both population and labor-force growthβa policy variable.
Fed Positioned to Hold Rates at 3.5β3.75%, Setting Up April 29 Showdown
The FOMC signaled an 8-4 split hold at 3.5β3.75%. The dissent tallyβthe highest since October 1992βhints at dovish pressure. This meeting may be Chair Powell's last.
U.S. March CPI Accelerates to 3.3% YoY, Energy Jumps 10.9%
March CPI rose 3.3% year-on-year, up from 2.4% in February. Month-on-month, inflation hit 0.9%, with energy surging 10.9% and gasoline the prime driver. Food prices held steady.
U.S. Adds 178K Non-Farm Jobs in March; Jobless Rate at 4.3%
The BLS reported 178,000 non-farm job gains in March with a 4.3% unemployment rate. Healthcare, construction, and transportation led the surge; federal employment declined.
JPMorgan Q1 EPS $5.94, Bond Trading Revenue Surges 21%
JPMorgan posted Q1 EPS of $5.94 (vs. consensus $5.45) on $50.54 billion revenue (+10%). Fixed-income trading jumped 21% to $7.08 billion, though net interest income guidance was lowered to $103 billion.
Wells Fargo Q1 Net Income $5.3B, EPS $1.60
Wells Fargo delivered Q1 net income of $5.3 billion and diluted EPS of $1.60, supported by cost discipline and rebounding fee revenue.
IMF 'Shadow of War' Report; Global Growth at 3.1%, U.S. Slowing
The IMF released 'Global Economy in the Shadow of War' on April 14, projecting 3.1% global growth in 2026 and 3.2% in 2027, both downward revisions. India's labor and regulatory reforms are expected to offset near-term fiscal deficits. The U.S. remains solid but faces deceleration risks.
March U.S. CPI +3.3%; Core +2.6% Widens Divergence
Headline inflation of 3.3% year-over-year is the highest since April 2024, driven by war-related energy shocks. Core inflation remains anchored at 2.6%, creating policy signal conflict as the April 29 FOMC approaches.
JPMorgan Q1 Net Income Up 13% to $16.5B; EPS $5.94
JPMorgan reported Q1 net income of $16.5 billion (up 13%) with EPS of $5.94 versus consensus $5.45. Revenue rose 10% to $50.5 billion. However, the bank trimmed 2026 net interest income guidance to approximately $103 billion from $104.5 billion.
Goldman Sachs Q1 Equities Trading at Record; Net Income $5.63B
Goldman delivered Q1 EPS of $17.55 versus consensus $16.49, with revenue of $17.23 billion beating consensus $16.97 billion. Net income climbed 19% to $5.63 billion. FICC trading missed at $4.01 billion, down 10%, across rates, MBS, and credit.
USTR Section 301 Comment Period Closes April 15; China 50% Tariff Threat
USTR closed its comment period April 15 for Section 301 investigations into 16 countries including China, EU, India, Japan, and South Korea. Trump threatened 50% tariffs on China on April 13, citing reports of air defense systems supplied to Iran. Section 232 automotive parts procedure also closed April 14.
Core CPI 2.6%, Shelter 3.0%
March's headline CPI of 3.3% was tempered by core inflation (ex-food and energy) at 2.6%; shelter rose 3.0%. Markets bet April 14 on an energy-driven transitory scenario.
Fed Holds in April: 8β4 Vote, Highest Dissent Since 1992
At its April 29 meeting, the Fed held rates at 3.50β3.75%. Governor Michele Miran dissented in favor of a 25bp cut; three officials objected to the statement language. Four dissents mark the first such count since October 1992.
IMF Downgrades Global Growth, Upgrades Inflation
The IMF's April 14 WEO revision reflects Middle East conflict and energy supply disruption, cutting growth forecasts while lifting inflation estimates.
Weekly Jobless Claims Remain in Healthy 200K Range
Initial claims through April 11 came in at 207Kβnormal levels. For the week ending April 25, claims dropped to 189K, the lowest since September 1969, signaling continued labor market stability.
Effective Tariff Rate Hits 11.8%; Semiconductor Levies Loom
Commerce Secretary Raimondo told ABC's 'This Week' on April 13 that electronics exemptions are temporary and semiconductor tariffs will arrive within months. Trump threatened 50% additional tariffs on China the same day.
IMF WEO: Global growth cut to 3.1% for 2026
War clouds loom over trade, AI, and financial shocks. China 4.5%, EU 0.9%.
U.S. GDP 2026 forecast slashed from 2.4% to 1.7%
RSM downgrade. WSJ economist survey: 33% probability of 12-month recession, up from January.
Core PCE March at 3.2% YoY; FOMC poised for April 29 hold
Energy inflation reignites. Fed vote split 8β4, widest dissent since October 1992.
Dollar weakness fuels emerging-market currency rally
Bank of America: 2026 sees 4Γ outflow of U.S. to foreign assets. South Korea foreign inflows swing to β©1.13T buy in April.
U.S. labor-market warning: quits rate at 1.9%, lowest since 2020
Participation rate 61.9%. Hiring and layoffs both coolingβsignals of a frozen labor market.
U.S. March CPI +3.3% YoYβTwo-Year High
BLS April 10 release: energy drove the bulk of gains. Market consensus shifted from pricing cuts this year to zero cuts, potentially into 2027.
Weekly S&P 500 Rally: +3.6% Best Week
April 10 close: S&P 500 at 6,816.89 (-0.11% daily), but +3.6% weeklyβbest week since November. Nasdaq +4.7%, Dow +3%, led by NVIDIA and Broadcom.
JPMorgan Q1 EPS $5.94 Beats
April 14 earnings: Q1 net income $16.49B (+13% YoY), revenue $50.54B vs. consensus $49.17B. Trading revenue +21%, investment banking fees +28%. Full-year NII guidance cut to $103B from $104.5B.
Iran Ceasefire, Eight Days In: Crude -16.5%
Post-ceasefire announcement April 8, WTI crude futures crashed ~16.5% to $94/barrel, down from $117 peak.
EU ETS Emissions -1.3%, Decarbonization on Track
April 10 EU Commission disclosure: 2025 validated ETS emissions down 1.3% year-over-year. Shipping -3%, power -0.4%. 2030 target of -62% remains on trajectory.
U.S. March CPI: 3.3% YoY, 0.9% MoM
Year-over-year CPI rose to 3.3%, month-over-month 0.9%. Energy climbed 10.9%, with gasoline alone up 21.2%, explaining roughly 75% of monthly inflation. Core CPI remained anchored at 0.2% MoM and 2.6% YoY.
Stephens: Iran-Driven Inflation 'Just Beginning'
Stephens and Purdue analysis warns that March CPI 'remains early innings,' with food, transportation, and finished-goods price passthrough likely to accumulate over coming months.
IMF April WEO: Global Economy 'Tested Again'
Released ahead of the IMF spring meetings, the April WEO chapter titled 'Global Economy Tested Again' signals downward growth revisions amid Iran conflict, tariff uncertainty, and interest-rate environment headwinds.
U.S. March PPI: 0.5% MoM, 4.0% YoY
Final-demand PPI for March (released April 14) rose 0.5% month-over-month and 4.0% year-over-year. As of April 11, March PPI represents the most recent available data point.
U.S. April Jobs: Economist Consensus +55Kβ67K, 4.3% Unemployment
The economist consensus expects April nonfarm payroll growth of 55,000 to 67,000 jobs and a 4.3% unemployment rate, representing a sharp deceleration from March's 178,000. April employment data releases May 8.
U.S. March CPI 3.3%, April FOMC pause locked in
Gasoline 21.2% surge carries headline; core at 2.6% annually. April 28-29 meeting priced at 0% rate-cut odds.
IMF April WEO: 2026 growth 3.1%, inflation 4.4%
Near-term war assumption lifts global growth downward by 0.1 percentage point; energy +19% assumption. Downside risks skew one-way.
ECB holds steady in April; June hike moves into focus
Deposit rate 2.0%, main refinancing 2.15% unchanged. Eurozone inflation accelerates to 3% in April despite growth concerns keeping rates flat.
Dollar weakens; EM and tech stocks rally
April 9 ceasefire hopes trigger risk-on rotation. Korean and Japanese tech lead gains; emerging-market currencies bounce.
U.S. March nonfarm payroll +178,000; unemployment 4.3%
April 3 release. Healthcare, construction, and transport drive gains; labor market shows modest softening. April data due May 8.
IMF WEO: 2026 global growth cut to 3.1%
Iran war and Hormuz closure are now core assumptions in Chapter 1. Inflation seen edging higher this year, then softening in 2027.
BLS: March nonfarm payrolls +178K, jobless rate 4.3%
The April 3 employment report crushed consensus (+59K), with healthcare, construction, and transport leading gains. Hourly pay up 0.2% month-on-month and 3.5% year-on-year.
JPMorgan Q1 EPS $5.94; trading hits record $11.6B
First-quarter revenue jumped 10% to $50.54B; trading surged 20% for a quarterly record. Net interest income guidance trimmed slightly to $103B.
March CPI report due April 10
Energy's 12.5% surge expected to lift headline to 3.3% and core to 2.6%.
Brazil and Mexico face narrowing fiscal space, World Bank warns
The World Bank LAC Economic Update flagged budget constraints and trade uncertainty as key risks.
US March CPI Rises 0.9% MoM, 3.3% YoYβTwo-Year High
BLS posted March CPI at +0.9% MoM seasonally adjusted and +3.3% YoY, with gasoline up 21.2% accounting for roughly three-quarters of headline inflation.
Core CPI Stable at +0.2% MoM, +2.6% YoY
Stripping out food and energy, core CPI edged up 0.2% MoM and 2.6% YoY in March, signaling stable underlying pressure.
IMF April WEO: Global Growth Forecast Slips to 3.1%
The IMF penciled in 2026 global growth at 3.1% and 2027 at 3.2%, assuming contained conflict, and warned of acute vulnerability for commodity-importing emerging nations.
1Q26 US Private Payroll Surge Runs 2.5x the 2025 Monthly Average
Treasury TBAC data showed first-quarter private payroll growth running 2.5 times the 2025 monthly average.
Fed Rate-Cut Consensus Evaporates, Markets Pricing Zero Cuts for 2026
JPMorgan Global Research found markets have priced out any 2026 rate cuts as of April 8, with the next move likely a 25 basis point hike in Q3 2027.
March US CPI: headline +0.9% monthly, +3.3% year-over-year
BLS March seasonally adjusted: month +0.9%, annual +3.3%. Core: month +0.2%, annual +2.6%. Sticky inflation persists.
Treasury: Q1 private payroll growth 2.5x 2025 average
Monthly private employment gains exceed 2025 average by 2.5x or more, underscoring labor-market resilience. April jobs report drops next month.
IMF WEO April: 'Global economy in war's shadow'
Ahead of Spring meetings, IMF flags Hormuz closure and energy prices as core downside risks to 2026 growth.
Bessent signals secondary sanctions on Iran oil buyers
Treasury Secretary Bessent formalizes intent to apply secondary sanctions on nations holding Iranian funds and purchasing Iranian crude. Leverage for ceasefire talks.
EIA: Brent climbs from $81 in Q1 to $115 average Q2 peak
Short-term energy outlook: Q2 average peaks near $115, then gradually slides to $88 by Q4.
Q1 private wage growth accelerates 2.5x 2025 monthly average
Treasury TBAC data shows Q1 2026 private payroll growth exceeded 2025's monthly average by 2.5x, driven partly by supply-shock wage pressures.
Bank of Korea: supply shock could push GDP below 2 percent
The Bank of Korea signaled in April that Middle East supply disruption could drag growth below 2 percent while full-year CPI exceeds its February forecast of 2.2 percent.
EIA: April US gasoline peaks at $4.30/gallon, diesel over $5.80
EIA's April STEO projects US gasoline monthly average of $4.30/gallon with diesel exceeding $5.80. Global crude supply collapsed 10.1 million barrels daily in March to 97 million barrels.
March headline CPI rises 0.9 percent MoM, 3.3 percent YoY
BLS April 10 release (March data): CPI gained 0.9 percent monthly and 3.3 percent year-on-yearβthe highest since April 2024. Gasoline surged 21.2 percent, accounting for 75 percent of the headline move. Core remained stable at 0.2 percent MoM and 2.6 percent YoY.
New Development Bank cumulative approvals hit $42.9 billion
BRICS' New Development Bank has approved 139 projects totaling $42.9 billion as of April, with Brazil accounting for $7 billion across 29 deals.
US March CPI rises to +3.3% YoYβhighest since May 2024
BLS reported March CPI at +3.3% year-on-year, the highest reading since May 2024. Gasoline soared 21.2% and drove the index; April average gasoline is forecast near $4.30/gallon and diesel at $5.80.
Fed holds at 3.50β3.75%; likely stays through year-end
The Fed kept rates steady at 3.50β3.75% in April. Bond markets now price in high odds the Fed stays put through December, citing inflation softness, labor-market cooling, and oil-shock volatility.
Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcasting
The Cleveland Fed's real-time inflation model tracked April CPIβHormuz-blockade pass-through in gasoline emerged as the key variable.
Richmond Fed: National economic indicators April chartbook
Richmond Fed's April 20 chartbook pdf compiles employment, inflation, and industrial production. The low-hire/low-fire labor dynamic repeated.
Morningstar: April payroll consensus +70k; unemployment 4.3%
Morningstar compiled April consensus: nonfarm payrolls +70,000 (March +178,000) and jobless rate holding at 4.3%. Low-hire/low-fire momentum stays solid.
U.S. March CPI 3.3%, core 2.6%, shelter 3.0%
March CPI rose 3.3% year-over-year; core CPI (less food and energy) came in at 2.6%; shelter costs climbed 3.0%. Cleveland Fed's Nowcasting index confirms the trend.
Fed holds rates at 3.5β3.75% for third consecutive meeting
The Federal Reserve kept rates at 3.5β3.75% in April's FOMC, a third consecutive hold. Inflation remains above target, labor-market cracks have widened, and Middle East oil uncertainty looms.
March payroll: +178k jobs, 4.3% jobless rate
The BLS reported March nonfarm payroll growth of +178,000 and a 4.3% unemployment rate. Gains concentrated in healthcare, construction, and transport-warehousing; federal hiring continued to decline.
Trump Section 232 overhaulβbranded drugs face 100% tariffs
Trump's April 2 announcement reshapes steel, aluminum, and copper tariffs under Section 232 and slaps new tariffs up to 100% on brand-name drug imports. This follows February's Supreme Court ruling voiding IEEPA reciprocal tariffs.
Brent averages $103; $150 peak scenario on table
EIA's April short-term outlook showed March Brent averaging $103/barrel; IEA pegged physical-market crude at $150/barrel. EIA projects a $115 peak in Q2 before gradual stabilization as shutins resolve.
US March nonfarm payroll jumps 178k, crushes 59k consensus
BLS April 3: nonfarm jobs +178k, unemployment 4.3% flat. Healthcare +76k, Jan-Feb revisions -7k combined, wages +9 cents to $37.38.
Patent drug tariffs max 100%; MFN deal holders get free pass
Section 232 drug tariffs phase in over 120 days (large) and 180 days (small); MFN price deals and domestic production commitments can hit 0% through Jan 20, 2029. Annex III seventeen firms accelerate July 31.
Finished steel, aluminum, copper hit 50% flat tariff
April 2 proclamation: 50% ad valorem on coils, sheets, and metal-majority finished goods; 25% on derivatives.
$1.5 trillion Pentagon budget request looms as post-WWII record
April 3: White House preps largest defense budget outlay increase ever sought by a sitting president.
South Korea April consumer sentiment plunges to 99.2
Korea April consumer confidence index dropped to 99.2 from 107 prior month, slipping below neutral 100 and signaling weakened near-term outlook.
U.S. March CPI 3.3% YoY, Q1 average inflation accelerates to 0.4% monthly
U.S. 12-month CPI inflation for March stood at 3.3% (up from 2.4% year-earlier), while core CPI softened to 2.6%. Energy volatility from Middle East strife lifted Q1 average inflation to 0.4% monthly from 0.2% in Q4 2025.
Brent vaults from $61 to $118/barrel in Q1 as Hormuz closure tightens supply
Brent futures started Q1 at $61/barrel and closed at $118/barrel. The Strait of Hormuz de facto closure from Feb. 28 military action drove the shock; EIA pegs daily supply loss at 10 million barrelsβa record.
World Bank: Middle East war unleashes largest energy price spike in four years
World Bank's April Commodity Markets Outlook calls the Middle East conflict the largest energy price surge in four years.
IMF April WEO: Global economy tested in shadow of war
IMF's April World Economic Outlook frames the backdrop as "global economy in the shadow of war," flagging both resilience and risk.
May 12: U.S. April CPI printβfirst inflation snapshot post-energy shock, Fed decision hinge
The Labor Department will release April CPI at 8:30 a.m. ET May 12. As the first full-month inflation read after the Hormuz strait shock, it will frame Fed policy pivot.
Fed raises 2026 inflation outlook from 2.4% to 2.7%
The FOMC lifted its March Summary of Economic Projections headline inflation forecast from 2.4% to 2.7% (+30bp) and core PCE from 2.5% to 2.7%.
US equities rally on Iran ceasefire signal as risk-off premium unwinds
Iranian President's peace overtures sent Dow soaring 1,000-plus points and Nasdaq climbing 3.4%, as risk assets shed war premiums.
EIA and IEA to release early April energy outlooks
The EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook and IEA Oil Market Report expected in early April mark the first official supply/demand revisions since Iran disruptions.