Ceasefire two hours before deadline, then fourteen hours of collapse, then blockade notice
The week began when a US–Iran ceasefire was brokered—two hours before Trump's deadline to destroy Iran's power grid and bridges—through mediation by Pakistan's Sharif and Munir. Oil markets broke through the WTI $100 barrier. Over the following days, signs of Hormuz reopening materialized: on April 11, seventeen tankers (seven inbound, ten outbound, including three supertankers) passed through in a single day—the highest traffic in six weeks. The US Navy's Arleigh Burke–class destroyers moved to clear mines. The same day, however, twenty-one hours of talks in Islamabad collapsed over nuclear terms. Trump announced that maritime blockade would take effect from April 13 onward, restarting the countdown to escalation. In a single week, a cycle of shock–relief–shock repeated twice, textbook proof of how a single conflict reprices both global inflation and capital flows simultaneously.