Weekly Analyst Note
W24 was the second week of June — almost exactly marking 100 days since the Iran war began — and a week in which four mega-events collided on a daily basis. The opening note was June 8, when Iran shot down a U.S. Apache helicopter over the Strait of Hormuz, KOSPI collapsed 8.29% and a magnitude-7.8 earthquake in the Philippines claimed 32 lives. The endpoint was June 12, the very same day SpaceX debuted on Nasdaq in the largest IPO in stock-market history, when the U.S.-Iran 14-point MOU was agreed through Pakistan's mediation — KOSPI rebounding +4.63% and Brent crude sliding to $87. In between: June 10's U.S. May CPI of 4.2% (a 3-year high), June 11's ECB first 25bp hike in three years, June 11's FIFA World Cup opening ceremony at Azteca (Shakira, Burna Boy), June 12's Korea 2-1 comeback over Czech Republic and BTS's 110,000 in Busan — all on the same page.
The market curve was the most extreme triple-direction swing of any week this year. The opening note was June 8 — foreign sell orders flooding in on the Iran-U.S. confrontation, triggering KOSPI's 8.29% collapse and a sell-side sidecar. The development: June 9's +8.18% rebound still reversed on June 10 as U.S. CPI hit 4.2%, forcing foreigners to dump 2.77T won and triggering another sell sidecar at -4.52%; June 12's Iran MOU news combined with the semiconductor export-surge data for a +4.63% snap-back. The endpoint was KOSPI recovering to 8,123, S&P 500 at 7,431 and Nasdaq at 25,888 — a weekly close of slight gains. The insight: W24 recorded the largest four-session, three-direction volatility gap of the quarter, where geopolitics, CPI shock and fund flows clashed on a daily basis.
The AI-capital curve carved a quarterly inflection point around two axes — SpaceX and Anthropic. The opening note was June 12, when SpaceX SPCX debuted on Nasdaq at a $135 offer price, surging to $176 intraday before closing at $160.95, raising $75B in a single session — more than doubling the Aramco IPO record — with an enterprise value clearing $1.77T. The development: Musk's Starlink-Starship-Falcon composite platform earned that $1.77T valuation on the same day Anthropic — which had confidentially filed its S-1 after closing its Series H — disclosed $30B ARR and Claude Code's $1B annual revenue, concentrating the market's attention on the next trillion-dollar AI listing. Now, ChatGPT has crossed 1B users in just three years — faster than any consumer app in history — while tech layoffs have surpassed 183,000 with 55% citing AI. The insight: W24 was when space-AI composite capital simultaneously rewrote market history while the cost of labor replacement became tangible on a quarterly basis.
The macro curve was a week where energy-driven inflation reversed the rate cycle. The opening note was June 10, when U.S. May CPI came in at 4.2% — driven by a 23.5% energy surge that accounts for more than 60% of the monthly gain and pushing core CPI to 2.9%, its highest in nine months. The development: Goldman Sachs pushed its first Fed cut to June 2027 and raised hike probability to 20%; the very next day the ECB declared the first 25bp hike in three years, with all major central banks locking into a hawkish synchronization. Underneath that surface, Korea's Q1 nominal GDP +10.5% and semiconductor exports +205.8% — structural tailwinds — provided fundamental support; the 15% mutual U.S.-Korea tariff was reaffirmed at the OECD ministerial. The insight: W24 reconfirmed that energy geopolitics is the single largest variable determining the quarterly direction of the rate cycle.
The sport-culture curve achieved the quarter's largest simultaneous global convergence. The opening note was June 11, when Shakira and Burna Boy debuted 'Dai Dai' at Azteca, opening the first-ever 48-nation, three-host-nation World Cup. The development: on June 12 Korea came from behind against Czech Republic — Hwang In-beom equalizing and Oh Hyeon-gyu winning it — while BTS simultaneously drew 110,000 over two Busan nights, and 'Come Over' topped iTunes in 79 countries. Now, Netflix's 'Teach You a Lesson' is running at global TV #3, with K-content's triple axis of sport, music and drama displaying its largest simultaneous quarterly global footprint.
W25's watchpoints span six directions. First, Warsh's first FOMC on June 16-17 and whether the dot plot signals a hike path for 2026 — the quarterly variable for bond and equity direction. Second, Korea vs. Portugal on June 17 as the direct Round-of-16 qualifier. Third, the exact U.S.-Iran MOU signature date and the phased Hormuz reopening schedule — the energy price direction. Fourth, Milan and Paris Menswear Week (June 19-28) and Wales Bonner's Hermès debut confirming the luxury narrative shift. Fifth, the EU MiCA deadline on July 1 reshaping European crypto market structure. Sixth, Anthropic's public S-1 filing timing as the trigger for the trillion-dollar AI listing race. If W23 was 'from KOSPI's 8,801 record to a jobs shock and a chip -10%,' W24 was 'from Iran's Apache shootdown and KOSPI -8.3% to SpaceX's IPO and the Iran MOU — KOSPI +4.6% — from the World Cup opener to Korea's comeback — from CPI 4.2% to the ECB's first hike in three years' — all compressed into four trading days.