Weekly digest · 2026-W29 (2026-07-06 ~ 2026-07-12)

KOSPI Double Crash & Supreme Court 7 Years SKH ADR ₩37T & GPT-5.6 Launch

W29 was defined by the US re-striking Iran as Hormuz tensions reignited, KOSPI triggering circuit breakers and falling 10%+ over two consecutive days, while SK Hynix raised ₩37T via Nasdaq ADR, Samsung posted a record ₩89.4T quarterly profit, GPT-5.6 launched, and the Supreme Court handed down a 7-year sentence for ex-President Yoon — all in a single week.

7Must-read
17Fields
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★ Must-read of the week

This week's must-read · 7 stories

Seven headlines that cut across the week.

01
Geopolitics × Energy × Markets

US-Iran Re-Clash: 3 Tankers Hit, 90 Targets Struck, Trump Declares Ceasefire Over

On July 7 (local time), three tankers including a Qatari LNG carrier were attacked in the Strait of Hormuz, and the US then struck 80–90 Iranian targets including air defenses, radars, and small naval vessels. Trump declared the prior month's ceasefire terminated, and Iran retaliated with missiles and drones against US bases in Bahrain, Kuwait, and Qatar. Brent crude surged to $74.16/bbl (+3.01%), the largest single-day gain since June 1.

02
Markets × Korea × Semiconductor

Samsung Record ₩89.4T Profit, KOSPI Hits Circuit Breaker and Falls to 7,247

Samsung Electronics announced a Q2 preliminary operating profit of ₩89.4T on July 7, the highest ever for a single quarter. Yet KOSPI plunged 4.91% to 7,656.31 that day as sell-side triggers fired both a trading halt (sidecar) and a full circuit breaker — Samsung fell 6.92% and SK Hynix 6.06%. Foreign and institutional investors combined sold over ₩3.2T net, while retail buyers absorbed ₩3.13T. On July 8, KOSPI fell a further 5.35% to 7,247.19.

03
Finance × Semiconductor × Korea

SK Hynix Nasdaq ADR 7x Oversubscribed, Raises ₩37T — 2nd Largest Foreign Listing Ever

SK Hynix listed on the Nasdaq Global Select Market on July 10 under the ticker 'SKHYV', raising approximately $24.5–26.5B (₩37–39T). The offering attracted over 7x oversubscription, making it the second-largest US listing by a foreign company after Alibaba. Proceeds will fund the Yongin semiconductor cluster and Cheongju advanced packaging fab. On listing day, SK Hynix shares jumped 8% on the KOSPI.

04
AI × Technology × Global

GPT-5.6 Sol/Terra/Luna Launches Globally, Meta Muse Spark 1.1 and Grok 4.5 Released Same Week

OpenAI released three GPT-5.6 models globally on July 9: Sol (top-tier reasoning and long-horizon agent tasks), Terra (GPT-5.5-class performance at half the cost), and Luna (lowest cost). Meta's Superintelligence Lab simultaneously unveiled Muse Spark 1.1, a multimodal reasoning model with a 1M-token context window priced at $1.25/input token — up to one-quarter of key rivals. xAI launched Grok 4.5, optimized for coding and agent tasks via collaboration with Cursor.

05
Korea × Legal × Politics

Supreme Court Upholds 7-Year Sentence for Ex-President Yoon — First Final Ruling in 8 Martial Law Cases

The Supreme Court on July 9 upheld the original 7-year sentence for former President Yoon Suk-yeol on charges of obstructing his own arrest by the Corruption Investigation Office. It is the first final Supreme Court ruling among eight cases stemming from the December 3 martial law declaration. On the same day, the Seoul Central District Court issued an arrest warrant for former National Security Council Deputy Director Kim Tae-hyo on charges of involvement in insurrection and abuse of authority.

06
Sports × Korea × Global

Spain & France in World Cup Semis, Lee Kang-in's Atletico Transfer Imminent

Spain beat Belgium 2-1 on July 10 (local time) to advance to the World Cup semifinals, with Merino scoring the winner two minutes after coming on as a substitute. France also dispatched Morocco 2-0 for a third consecutive semifinal berth; Mbappe's 8th goal drew him level with Messi for top scorer. Lee Kang-in's move from PSG to Atletico Madrid was reported as imminent, with an estimated fee of approximately ₩70B on a 5-year contract.

07
Korea × Macro × Diplomacy

IMF Lifts Korea Growth to 2.6% — Biggest Upgrade Among Major 30 Economies; Lee Seals Mongolia CEPA

The IMF revised Korea's 2026 growth forecast to 2.6% on July 9, a 0.7pp upgrade from its April estimate and the largest upward revision among the 30 major economies tracked. AI semiconductor export momentum was cited as the primary driver. The ADB made an identical revision, projecting inflation at 2.7%. President Lee Jae-myung attended Mongolia's Naadam festival on July 11 as the first Korean president to serve as guest of honor, concluding a Korea-Mongolia CEPA in principle and adopting a joint declaration dubbed the 'Korea-Mongolia Golden Age.'

▦ Weekly synthesis

Storylines by field

Each field's storyline traced through the past 7 days — opening, escalation, current state.

01 · Trending now

Trending now

KOSPI double crash with circuit breaker, Supreme Court confirms Yoon's 7-year sentence, Lee Kang-in's Atletico transfer, and GPT-5.6 launch dominated search trends and social media all week

KOSPI Two-Day Crash and Circuit Breaker, Retail Buyers Net ₩3T

Despite Samsung's ₩89.4T earnings surprise on July 7, KOSPI plunged 4.91% to 7,656.31 as profit-taking combined with heavy foreign and institutional selling triggered both a sidecar and a circuit breaker on the same day. On July 8, the index fell a further 5.35% to 7,247.19. Over both days, foreign and institutional investors each sold over ₩3T net, while retail buyers absorbed ₩3.13T on July 7 alone, according to Business Korea.

Supreme Court Confirms Yoon Suk-yeol 7-Year Sentence — First Martial Law Final Ruling

The Supreme Court on July 9 upheld former President Yoon Suk-yeol's 7-year prison term for obstructing his CIO arrest, the first final ruling in the eight cases linked to the December 3 martial law declaration. The decision topped real-time search charts. Former NSC Deputy Director Kim Tae-hyo was also arrested the same day on insurrection-related charges.

Lee Kang-in's Atletico Madrid Transfer Imminent — ~₩70B, 5-Year Deal

MBC reported on July 11 that Lee Kang-in's departure from PSG to Atletico Madrid was imminent. The transfer fee was estimated at approximately ₩70B on a five-year contract. Atletico under Diego Simeone reportedly identified Lee as a key addition to their Champions League push.

02 · Pain points

Pain points

KOSPI fell more than 10% over two days, flash floods displaced 423 people with one missing, and the disinformation law's day-one enforcement triggered free-speech anxiety

KOSPI Falls 20%+ from June Peak, Entering Official Bear Market

Following a 4.91% drop on July 7 and a further 5.35% on July 8, KOSPI sank to 7,247.19. Business Korea reported the index had declined more than 20% from the June 22 high of 9,114, meeting the technical definition of a bear market. Retail investors bought more than ₩6T over two days but could not offset institutional and foreign selling.

Nationwide Flash Floods: 1 Missing, 423 Displaced, KTX Trains Delayed

Heavy rains struck the country on July 9, sweeping a man in his 70s into a river in North Gyeongsang Province, while over 423 residents were evacuated and more than 200 infrastructure sites sustained damage, Kyunghyang Shinmun reported. Dozens of KTX trains were delayed, and heavy-rain warnings were in effect across North Chungcheong Province, with rainfall exceeding 200mm in some areas.

Disinformation Law Takes Effect July 7, Opposition Calls It a 'Gag Law'

The amended Network Act imposing up to 5x punitive damages and fines up to ₩1B for repeat deliberate disinformation took effect July 7. The ruling party framed it as a firewall for public discourse; the opposition labeled it a 'gag law' that infringes free speech, Financial News reported. Hoaxes urging people to delete old posts spread the day before; the government clarified that personal opinions, political satire, and private messages are exempt, per Seoul Shinmun.

03 · Global

Global

US-Iran hostilities reignited, Ukraine launched its largest drone raid on Moscow in two years, and China conducted its first-ever open-ocean SLBM test

US-Iran Re-Clash: Tankers Hit, 80–90 Sites Struck, Iran Retaliates

Three tankers were struck in the Strait of Hormuz on July 7, prompting the US to attack 80–90 Iranian targets. Iran responded with missiles and drones against US bases in Bahrain, Kuwait, and Qatar, with Trump declaring the June ceasefire terminated. On the same night, Ukraine launched 430+ drones against Moscow in what Moscow's mayor called the largest Ukrainian drone attack in two years, the Moscow Times reported.

China Fires SLBM into Open Pacific — First-Ever Live-Fire Test in International Waters

China's Navy fired a submarine-launched ballistic missile from a nuclear submarine into the open Pacific on July 6, with the warhead reportedly landing in a designated target area some 7,300 km away. Australia, New Zealand, and Japan received advance notice; the US did not, CNN reported.

Marine Le Pen Announces 2027 Presidential Bid Despite Electronic Ankle Monitor

French far-right leader Marine Le Pen announced her candidacy for the 2027 presidential election immediately after a court ordered her to wear an electronic ankle bracelet due to her embezzlement conviction, Democracy Now reported.

04 · Macro

Macro

The IMF issued its largest growth upgrade to Korea among major economies, while a Fed split on rates and a US inflation expectation spike to a 3-year high raised second-half uncertainty

IMF and ADB Both Raise Korea Growth to 2.6% — Biggest Upgrade Among Major 30 Economies

The IMF on July 9 raised Korea's 2026 growth forecast to 2.6%, a 0.7pp increase from April and the largest upward revision among 30 major economies, citing AI semiconductor export strength. ADB made the same revision and set inflation at 2.7%, Financial News reported.

Fed June Minutes Show Hawkish Split; NY Fed Inflation Expectations Hit 3-Year High of 3.7%

The Federal Reserve's June FOMC minutes released on July 8 revealed members divided between holding and raising rates, CNBC reported. The same day the New York Fed announced consumer 1-year inflation expectations surged to 3.7%, the highest in three years.

Korea June CPI 3.2% — Highest Since Dec 2023; BOK July 16 Decision in Focus

Korea's June consumer price inflation hit 3.2%, the highest since December 2023, raising market expectations that the Bank of Korea will raise rates at its July 16 meeting, Business Korea reported. The won closed at 1,530.3 per dollar on July 6.

05 · Markets

Global markets

Hormuz re-escalation spiked Brent to $74, KOSPI collapsed over two days, and Nasdaq fell 1.16% on semiconductor selling with the SMH ETF down 3%

Brent $74 and WTI $70 Surge — Largest Single-Day Gain Since June 1

Brent crude closed at $74.16/bbl (+3.01%) and WTI at $70.44/bbl (+2.76%) on July 7 after tankers were struck in the Strait of Hormuz and the US revoked Iran's oil sales permits, Financial News reported. Both benchmarks posted their largest single-session gains since June 1.

Nasdaq Falls 1.16%, Semiconductor Sell-Off Drags SMH ETF Down 3%+

On July 7 (US local time) the Nasdaq fell 1.16% to 25,818.69. Micron dropped 4.7% while KLA, Marvell, Broadcom, and AMD also declined. The semiconductor ETF SMH fell more than 3%, with Samsung's results seen as falling short of the most bullish analyst targets, TheStreet reported.

Ukraine Drones Strike 36 Russian Tankers and Refineries, Moscow Bans Diesel Exports

Ukrainian forces struck 36 Russian oil tankers and refinery sites with drones over four days in the Azov and Black Seas, causing fuel shortages that prompted Moscow to ban diesel exports, the Moscow Times reported.

06 · Rising

Rising

SK Hynix's ₩37T ADR, Samsung's record ₩89.4T quarter, and China's second-ever orbital booster sea recovery all set new records this week

SK Hynix ADR Raises ₩37T on Nasdaq — 2nd Largest Foreign Company US Listing

SK Hynix raised approximately $24.5–26.5B via its Nasdaq ADR listing on July 10, attracting over 7x oversubscription — the second-largest US listing by a foreign company after Alibaba. Proceeds will fund the Yongin semiconductor cluster and Cheongju advanced packaging fab, Investchosun reported.

Samsung Q2 Operating Profit ₩89.4T — Even Exceeds Nvidia's Recent Quarter

Samsung Electronics' Q2 preliminary operating profit of ₩89.4T set an all-time quarterly record and exceeded Nvidia's recent quarterly operating profit of $53.5B (~₩81.8T), Hankook Ilbo reported. The result was 56.21% higher than the previous quarter, driven by surging demand for HBM and data-center memory from AI infrastructure buildout.

China's Long March 10B Becomes World's 2nd Rocket to Recover Orbital Booster at Sea

CASC's Long March 10B placed a satellite in orbit on July 10 and then caught the first-stage booster with a net on an offshore platform — the second country to recover an orbital-class booster at sea after SpaceX, and the first to use a hook-catch method with no landing legs, SpaceNews reported.

07 · Technology

Technology

OpenAI GPT-5.6, Meta Muse Spark 1.1, xAI Grok 4.5, and ChatGPT Work all launched in the same week, marking an unprecedented concentration of AI model releases

OpenAI Releases GPT-5.6 Sol/Terra/Luna and ChatGPT Work Simultaneously

OpenAI released GPT-5.6 Sol (top-tier reasoning and agent tasks), Terra (GPT-5.5 performance at half cost), and Luna (lowest cost) globally on July 9, switching ChatGPT to the new default model. ChatGPT Work — an autonomous agent that creates documents, spreadsheets, and presentations — also rolled out to Pro and Enterprise plans the same day, Edaily reported.

Meta Muse Spark 1.1: 1M Token Context at $1.25 per Input Token

Meta's Superintelligence Lab unveiled multimodal reasoning model Muse Spark 1.1 with a 1-million-token context window at $1.25 per input token — up to one-quarter the price of leading rivals, TechCrunch reported.

Korea Transport Ministry Issues First Level-4 Autonomous Driving Safety Guidelines

The Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport released its first safety guidelines for Level-4 driverless vehicles. Commercial operation permits require at least 15,000 km of test mileage and mandatory redundant systems, emergency braking, and remote monitoring. An amendment to the Vehicle Management Act is also planned by year-end, Korean Economy reported.

08 · Startups

Startups

Waymo expanded fully driverless robotaxi service to four US cities, accelerating the autonomous-vehicle commercialization race

Waymo Launches Fully Driverless Robotaxi in Las Vegas, San Diego, Tampa, and Denver

Waymo began fully driverless commercial robotaxi service in Las Vegas, San Diego, Tampa, and Denver, targeting one million weekly rides as it rapidly expands its US coverage, CNBC reported.

xAI Releases Grok 4.5, Coding-Optimized with Cursor Collaboration

xAI launched Grok 4.5, a model optimized for coding and agent tasks developed in collaboration with Cursor. Pricing is $2 per input token and $6 per output token, TechCrunch reported.

09 · Politics

Politics

The disinformation law took effect, Kim Tae-hyo was arrested, 20,000 public servants rallied on July 11, and the Democratic Party convention opened — a week of concentrated political upheaval

Disinformation Law Effective July 7, Ruling and Opposition Parties Clash Head-On

The amended Network Act imposing up to 5x damages and fines up to ₩1B took effect on July 7. The ruling party called it a firewall for public discourse; the opposition labeled it a free-speech 'gag law'. Private KakaoTalk messages, simple opinions, and political satire are exempt, Seoul Shinmun clarified.

20,000 Public Workers Rally July 11; KCTU Declares July 15 General Strike

Five public-sector and teachers' unions mobilized 20,000 participants at a rally in Gwanghwamun on July 11, demanding pension gap relief, pay increases, and political rights, Financial News reported. The Korean Confederation of Trade Unions (KCTU) separately declared a general strike for July 15.

PPP Ethics Panel Resumes, Democratic Party's Aug 17 Convention Kicks Off with Kim Min-seok

The People Power Party's central ethics committee convened on July 6 to review more than 30 disciplinary cases, Kyunghyang Shinmun reported. The same day, Rep. Kim Min-seok declared his candidacy for Democratic Party chair at the Aug 17 convention — the first in the field — choosing Gwangju as his launch venue to court Honam voters.

10 · Environment

Environment

Spain's Almeria wildfire killed at least 12, Europe entered its third heat wave in six weeks, and Korean flash floods left one dead and 423 displaced

Spain Almeria Wildfire Kills at Least 12, Injures Dozens — Among Spain's Worst Ever

A wildfire in Almeria, Andalusia on July 9 killed at least 12 people and left 23 missing, with most victims identified as foreign nationals. It was described as one of the deadliest wildfires in Spanish history, Euronews and NPR reported. Europe entered its third heat wave in six weeks, and Barcelona set a 112-year temperature record on July 9.

Korea Flash Floods: 1 Missing, 423 Displaced, 200+ Infrastructure Sites Damaged

Heavy rainfall on July 9 swept a man in his 70s into a river in Yeongju, North Gyeongsang Province. Over 423 residents were evacuated and more than 200 infrastructure sites sustained damage, with rainfall exceeding 200mm in parts of North Chungcheong Province, Kyunghyang Shinmun reported.

11 · Health & Bio

Health & Bio

The UK's UKHSA extended a heat-health alert through July 12 as Europe faced its sixth week of extreme heat

UK UKHSA Extends Heat-Health Alert Through July 12

The UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) extended a heat-health alert through July 12 during Europe's sixth consecutive week of extreme temperatures. Barcelona recorded its highest temperature in 112 years on July 9, according to Euronews.

12 · Education

Education

Teachers' unions joined the July 11 public-sector rally, demanding political rights and pension reform alongside civil servants

Teachers' Unions Demand Political Rights and Pension Reform at July 11 Rally

Teachers' unions joined the July 11 public-sector rally in Gwanghwamun, demanding political rights, pension gap relief, and improved working conditions. These issues formed part of the four core demands at the 20,000-person event, Financial News reported.

13 · Culture & Entertainment

Culture & Entertainment

SBS drama 'Chief Kim' hit 21.6% ratings in only four episodes — the first Korean drama to crack 20% since 2024 — while Toy Story 5 crossed 2.21M admissions

SBS 'Chief Kim' Hits 21.6% in Episode 4 — First Show Over 20% Since 2024

SBS weekend drama 'Chief Kim' recorded a nationwide rating of 21.6% in its fourth episode, the first Korean drama to break 20% since 'Queen of Tears' in 2024, Korean Economy reported. The revenge thriller stars So Ji-sub and Yoon Kyung-ho; production company Fantagio shares also surged in response.

'Toy Story 5' Tops Weekend Box Office for Third Straight Week, Passes 2.21M

Toy Story 5 drew 429,038 viewers over the weekend of July 3–5 to hold the weekend box-office crown for a third consecutive week, pushing its cumulative audience to 2,218,501, TV Report said. The animated film held off Korean competitor 'Nuzdongja' to maintain summer blockbuster leadership.

14 · Sports

Sports

Spain and France both made the World Cup semis, Messi set a first-ever World Cup record of 6 consecutive knockout-round goals, Lee Kang-in's Atletico move loomed, and Wimbledon produced its first all-Czech women's final

Spain Beat Belgium 2-1, France Top Morocco 2-0 — Yamal vs Mbappe Semifinal Set

Spain eliminated Belgium 2-1 on July 10 (local time) in the quarterfinals, with Merino scoring the winner two minutes off the bench for a second straight knockout-stage decisive goal. France beat Morocco 2-0 for a third consecutive World Cup semifinal; Mbappe's 8th goal drew him level with Messi for tournament leading scorer, iMBC reported.

Argentina Overturn 0-2 Deficit to Beat Egypt 3-2; Messi Sets Record 6 Straight Knockout Goals

Defending champions Argentina trailed Egypt 0-2 at the round of 16 on July 8 (Korea time) before scoring three second-half goals to win 3-2. Messi contributed one goal and one assist to reach a World Cup career total of 21 goals, setting the first-ever record of scoring in six consecutive World Cup knockout matches, News1 reported.

Wimbledon's First All-Czech Women's Final: Muchova and Noskova Both Advance

Karolina Muchova beat Coco Gauff 6-2, 1-6, 7-6(10) in the Wimbledon women's semifinal on July 9, and Linda Noskova defeated Kostyuk 6-4, 7-5, producing the first all-Czech women's Wimbledon final, CBS Sports reported.

15 · Consumer

Consumer & Life

Tesla raised the Model 3 Long Range price by ₩7M on the first day of second-half EV subsidies; for the first time Tesla outsold Hyundai in the Korean market for H1

Tesla Raises Model 3 Long Range by ₩7M on H2 Subsidy Day One

Tesla Korea raised the Model 3 Long Range from ₩52.99M to ₩59.99M — a ₩7M hike — on July 5, the first day of second-half EV subsidies, News-Wa reported. The Model Y Premium RWD stayed at ₩49.99M, though the Long Range AWD variants rose ₩3M. The Kia Ray EV showed the longest wait at 10 months on the current delivery chart.

1 in 4 New Cars in Korea's H1 Was Electric; Tesla Outsells Hyundai for First Time

Korea's H1 EV sales reached 198,969 units, more than doubling year-on-year, Financial News reported. Tesla led with 56,139 units versus Hyundai's 39,575, the first time Tesla has overtaken Hyundai in the Korean market. BYD expanded its share from 0.7% to 5.9%.

16 · Mobility

Mobility

Waymo expanded fully driverless service to four US cities and Korea's transport ministry released its first Level-4 autonomous vehicle safety guidelines, while EV penetration hit one in four new cars

Waymo Expands Fully Driverless Robotaxi to 4 US Cities

Waymo launched fully driverless commercial robotaxi operations in Las Vegas, San Diego, Tampa, and Denver, targeting one million weekly rides as it rapidly expands US coverage, CNBC reported.

Korea Issues First Level-4 Autonomous Driving Safety Guidelines

Korea's Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport released the country's first safety guidelines for Level-4 driverless vehicle commercial operations: at least 15,000 km of test mileage, redundant autonomous systems, emergency braking, and remote monitoring are required. A Vehicle Management Act amendment is planned for year-end, Korean Economy reported.

BYD's Korean EV Share Surges from 0.7% to 5.9% in H1

Total H1 EV sales in Korea reached 198,969 units — one in four new vehicles — with BYD lifting its market share from 0.7% to 5.9%, marking a notable advance by the Chinese brand, Financial News reported.

17 · Conspiracy watch

Conspiracy watch

The 'Your voice disappears July 7' hoax went viral before the disinformation law took effect, and a petition claiming Defense Minister Ahn was AWOL for 7 months hit 300,000 signatures

'Your Voice Disappears July 7' Hoax Goes Viral — Government Issues Rebuttal

The day before the amended Network Act took effect, hoax posts claiming 'you must delete all old posts' and 'truth disappears on July 7' spread widely on social media with photos of protest signs. The government rebutted that simple opinions, political criticism, and private messages are explicitly outside the law's scope, and that fines only apply to profit-driven repeat offenders of court-confirmed false information, Financial News reported. Fact-check: Seoul Shinmun confirmed that private KakaoTalk messages and opinion expression are expressly excluded from enforcement.

Petition Claiming Defense Minister Was AWOL 7 Months Tops 300,000 — Ministry: 'Blatantly False'

A petition calling for the impeachment of Defense Minister Ahn Gyu-baek resurfaced over allegations that he was absent without leave for seven months during his 1984 reserve duty, crossing 300,000 signatures, Financial News reported. The Ministry of National Defense issued an official statement calling the claim 'blatantly false,' while the opposition demanded full disclosure of his military records and his resignation. Fact-check: The Ministry of National Defense officially stated the claim does not accord with the facts.

🧪 Tracked storylines

This week's storylines

Storylines updated this week with cumulative evidence. Full library shows the longer arc.

#2026-W19-05ACTIVE2026-W19 → 2026-W29

Global monetary policy fragments asymmetrically into five tracks

Fed's 8-4 split hold, BOJ's ¥5.48 trillion intervention, ECB's hawkish pivot, Norges Bank's surprise 25bp hike, and BLS's 115k payrolls surprise align in the same quarter, fragmenting global monetary policy coordinates into five asymmetric tracks. This fragmentation itself has become a first-order variable for capital flows, exchange rates, and asset prices.

8 support1 counter
11-week track
#2026-W20-06ACTIVE2026-W20 → 2026-W29

Korean memory supercycle fractures through labor volatility

KOSPI 8K breakthrough → -6.12% collapse, SK Hynix market cap surpasses Samsung, and Samsung's May 21 18-day, 45,000-person general strike all converge in a single week. Korea's memory supercycle becomes a single-node variable for global AI capital cycles, and labor is its first-order fracture point.

8 support0 counter
10-week track
#2026-W14-01VALIDATED2026-W14 → 2026-W29

AI capex dwarfs geopolitical shock

Major indices react faster and more sharply to AI infrastructure investment decisions than to Hormuz blockade or Middle East war headlines. The 'war premium' cannot keep pace with 'AI supercycle' pricing power.

14 support3 counter
16-week track
#2026-W14-03VALIDATED2026-W14 → 2026-W29

Single Hormuz shock closes the loop: energy, consumption, and monetary policy

Iran war and Hormuz blockade bind gas prices → headline CPI → Fed rate cut bets into a single channel. This feedback loop has become the quarterly macro price-setter.

14 support5 counter
16-week track
⌚ Watch ahead

Next week's watch

What to watch ahead

  • Bank of Korea July 16 rate decision — hike vs hold as June CPI hit 3.2% and inflation expectations rise
  • US-Iran further clashes or renewed talks — Hormuz oil stability and Trump's next move
  • 2027 minimum wage final decision — labor-management gap narrowing toward mid-July deadline
  • 2026 FIFA World Cup semifinal: Spain vs France — Yamal-Mbappe showdown schedule confirmed
  • Democratic Party Aug 17 leadership convention — candidate lineup: Kim Min-seok, Jeong Cheong-rae, Park Chan-dae
  • Remaining 7 Yoon-related trials — special prosecutor deadline July 24
  • SK Hynix ADR (SKHYV) early Nasdaq price performance — foreign investor flow tracking
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