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Daily briefing · 2026-05-25 (Mon)

Nikkei hits 65,000 record, Memorial Day gas surges

Nikkei 225 breaks 65,000 for the first time at 65,408, Memorial Day US gasoline hits four-year high $4.56 with 45M traveling, Trump signals Iran deal mostly settled with Hormuz reopening imminent.

7Must-read
17Fields
90Sources
★ Must-read

Today's must-read · 7 stories

01
Markets × Tech × Rising

Nikkei 225 surges 3% to record 65,408, breaking 65,000 for first time as AI rally reignites Asia

On 5/25 (Mon), Tokyo's Nikkei 225 surged more than 3% to close at 65,408.87, breaking the 65,000 mark for the first time. Reports of the Strait of Hormuz reopening drove oil lower and strengthened risk appetite; Topix also rose 1.19%. Taiwan's Weighted Index hit a record 43,495.92, up 2.91%, while ASX200, CSI300, and Nifty50 also rallied. With US Memorial Day, Korea and Hong Kong all closed, AI and semiconductor momentum drove the broad Asia rally on its own.

02
Politics × Energy × Trending now

Trump says Iran deal 'mostly settled' — 60-day ceasefire, Hormuz reopening, uranium enrichment halt at core

On 5/23, after calls with Saudi Arabia and Israel, Trump said the Iran nuclear deal was 'mostly settled' and promised an official announcement soon. Terms disclosed 5/24 include a 60-day ceasefire extension, Hormuz Strait reopening, free Iranian oil sales, with halts to uranium enrichment and removal of highly enriched stockpiles as core conditions. Israel and Republican opposition remains fierce, but expectations of a Memorial Day weekend announcement boosted market risk appetite.

03
Labor × Markets × Pain points

Samsung union 48K provisional agreement passes 82.86% day two, 5/27 count makes passage imminent

Samsung Electronics union 48,000-person provisional agreement ratification vote had 47,473 participants as of 5/24 5PM, a 82.86% turnout effectively securing a passage quorum. The agreement features a 6.2% average wage increase and a new 10.5% DS semiconductor special bonus. Voting closes 5/27 at 10AM with immediate counting. With 80% of union members in the DS division, passage likelihood is highly elevated, while pockets of rejection campaigns in the DX division remain a variable. The memory supply chain outlook becomes June's market inflection point.

04
Pain points × Energy × Macro

US Memorial Day gas $4.56 four-year high, Hormuz 87-day blockade and 45M travelers pressure households

AAA data on 5/24 shows national gasoline average reached $4.56/gallon, up 3 cents week-over-week, marking the highest Memorial Day price in four years. Year-over-year prices surged $1.38; California hit $6.14, and all 50 states cleared $4. With Hormuz 87 days into blockade, tanker traffic down to 5%, May average Brent $106 and WTI $98 sustained strength, the combination of 45M travelers and an extra $22 per tank fill directly pressures household Memorial Day budgets.

05
Culture × Politics × Trending now

Park Chan-wook crowns Cannes as first Korean jury president, Palme d'Or to 'Fjord' is NEON's 7th straight

At the 79th Cannes Film Festival closing ceremony in Korea Standard Time on 5/24, 'Fjord' directed by Christian Mungiu, starring Sebastian Stan and Renate Reinsve, won the Palme d'Or. Park Chan-wook, the first Korean to serve as competition jury president, led the 8-member jury including Demi Moore and Chloé Zhao and wrapped the closing ceremony, joking 'I didn't want to give it, but I had no choice.' NEON cemented its position as the distributor of seven consecutive Palme d'Or winners; Na Hong-jin's 'Hope' received a 7-minute standing ovation but failed to win in major categories.

06
Tech × Startups × Rising

Anthropic to close $30B round at $900B valuation next week, overtaking OpenAI in largest AI raise ever

Claude developer Anthropic will close a $30B+ new round next week, Bloomberg reported on 5/22. With post-money valuation estimated at $900B, it overtakes OpenAI's $852B from March, confirming the largest AI startup round in history. Sequoia, Dragoneer, Altimeter, and Greenoaks are co-leading with roughly $2B each, while existing investors including Founders Fund and General Catalyst also participate. This is the new peak of the AI mega-valuation cycle, with an October IPO also being discussed.

07
Health × Politics × Pain points

WHO Ebola Bundibugyo PHEIC expands to 746 suspected, 176 deaths; RFK vaccine appeal intensifies

WHO's Bundibugyo Ebola variant PHEIC declared 5/17 has expanded to 746 suspected cases and 176 deaths across DRC's Ituri province and Uganda as of 5/21. With 85 confirmed cases and 10 deaths, no Bundibugyo-specific vaccine or treatment exists, raising concerns of 30-50% fatality rates and 6-9 months until clinical trials. The US Department of Justice has filed an appeal against Judge Murphy's March injunction blocking RFK Jr. HHS's ACIP restructuring, intensifying legal battles alongside 15 state AGs' nullification suits.

▦ Categories

By field

01Trending now

Real-time trends

Buddha's Birthday substitute holiday, Cannes closing, Samsung union vote dominate weekend headlines
Cannes Palme d'Or to 'Fjord', Park Chan-wook first Korean jury president

At the 79th Cannes Film Festival closing on 5/23, Romanian director Christian Mungiu's 'Fjord' (starring Sebastian Stan and Renate Reinsve) won the Palme d'Or. Park Chan-wook, the first Korean to serve as jury president, presided over the awards.

Samsung union wage agreement vote turnout exceeds 82.86%

As of 5/24, Samsung Electronics union wage agreement ratification vote participants reached 47,473, a 82.86% turnout. The agreement includes a 6.2% average wage increase and 10.5% DS division special bonus, with results counted 5/27 at 10AM.

Trump 'Iran nuclear deal nearly settled': 60-day truce, Hormuz reopens

On 5/24, US and Iran moved close to an agreement featuring a 60-day ceasefire extension, Strait of Hormuz reopening, and free Iranian oil sales. Halting uranium enrichment and removing highly enriched stockpiles are core conditions, but Israel and Republicans remain strongly opposed.

Korea 6/3 by-election D-9 official campaign, 7,813 candidates registered

Official campaigning for Korea's June 3 local and by-elections began 5/21 with 7,813 candidates registered. With 16 metropolitan mayors and 14 National Assembly seats at stake, this 'mini general election' is viewed as the first nationwide referendum on the Lee Jae-myung administration.

May 25 Buddha's Birthday substitute holiday, last day of 3-day weekend

With May 24 Buddha's Birthday falling on Sunday, Monday May 25 was designated as substitute holiday, creating a 3-day weekend from May 23-25. Government offices, banks, and stock markets are closed; workers at 5+ employee workplaces receive holiday premium pay.

02Pain points

Cost-of-living squeeze

Memorial Day gas four-year high, food 2.9%, mortgage 6.51% pressure households across the board
Gas $4.56 four-year high, Memorial Day fill-up costs $22 more

Per AAA, US national average gasoline on 5/24 was $4.56/gallon, $1.38 higher than a year ago and the highest in four years. A tank fill-up costs $22 more than last year, but 45M people are still traveling.

Groceries surge 2.9%, beef 18% and tomatoes 39.7% skyrocket

April US grocery prices rose 2.9% year-over-year, the highest since August 2023. Beef roast jumped 18%, fresh tomatoes 39.7%, and weekly household food spending hit $170, up 42% from $120 in 2020.

30-year mortgage rebounds to 6.51%, housing affordability hits limit

Per Freddie Mac, as of 5/21 the 30-year fixed mortgage rate jumped from 6.36% to 6.51%, and 15-year fixed rose from 5.71% to 5.85%. High home prices and limited inventory keep purchasing power suppressed.

US household debt $18.8T, credit card balance $1.25T record

Per NY Fed Q1 report, US household debt grew $18B to $18.8T. Credit card balance hit a record $1.252T; card delinquency rate slowed to 2.92%, but 4.8% of total debt remains delinquent.

Korea auto and health insurance hikes, first shock in 6 years

Samsung, DB, Hyundai, KB and other top 4 are expected to raise 2026 auto insurance premiums by 1.3-1.5%. With November loss ratios hitting 92.1%, this 5-year first hike comes as health insurance premiums also rise 7.8% on average, intensifying household insurance burden.

03Emerging markets

Emerging markets

BI 50bp surprise hike, Turkey CPI 32%, KRW at 1,510 sustain EM currency weakness
BI surprises with 50bp hike to 5.25% to defend rupiah

Bank Indonesia hiked BI rate 50bp to 5.25% on 5/20, the first 50bp hike since 2022 and exceeding market consensus of 25bp. Deposit rate raised to 4.75% and lending rate to 6.0% to counter rupiah weakness and import inflation pressure.

KRW/USD at 1,510 month low, KOSPI strong at 7,848

On 5/22 KRW/USD slid to around 1,510, a month low. Dollar strength and rising US Treasury yields weighed. Meanwhile KOSPI rose 0.41% to 7,848 the same day, with AI and semi momentum lifting it over 150% in a year, deepening stock-currency decoupling.

Turkey CPI 32.37%, inflation reacceleration pressures TCMB

Turkey's April CPI accelerated to 32.37% year-over-year from 30.87% in March. Food +34.55%, housing/utilities +46.6%, transport +35.06% led broad rises. TCMB Inflation Report II released 5/14 signals further tightening possible.

South Africa SARB 28th meeting, 25bp hike card emerges

Ahead of South African Reserve Bank's 5/28 rate decision, May 6 oil price pass-through expected to lift headline CPI to 4.2%. Markets now price 25bp hike likely from 6.75%, lifting prime rate to 11.50%.

Brazil real 5.02, hawkish Copom minutes drive volatility

Real weakened to 5.02 per dollar in late May, retreating from month-start 2-year high of 4.89. Copom minutes released 5/5 warned of slower easing cycle on Iran-US conflict, raising 2026 inflation outlook to 4.6%. Selic was cut 25bp to 14.50% in April.

04Macro

Macro

Warsh new chair first FOMC imminent, US 30Y at 5%, Japan CPI easing expand volatility
Warsh becomes Fed chair, 97% probability of June FOMC hold

Kevin Warsh was sworn in as 17th Federal Reserve chairman on 5/22. June 16-17 first FOMC will release dot plot, with CME FedWatch pricing 97% hold probability. Warsh's first press conference tone will be a key variable for the year's rate path.

US 10Y 4.56%, 30Y 5.08%, long-term yield burden persists

On 5/23, US 10-year Treasury yield fell to 4.56% on easing inflation concerns, a roughly week low. However, 30-year remained at 5.082% as of 5/22, staying above 5% and leaving long-end supply burden in the market.

Japan April core CPI 1.4%, lowest in 4 years

Japan's April core CPI rose just 1.4% year-over-year, the lowest since March 2022. Ex-fresh food and energy slowed to 1.9%, undershooting BOJ's 2% target for 3 consecutive months. Justification for further hikes weakened at the 6/16 BOJ meeting.

CBO projects FY2026 deficit $1.9T at 5.8% of GDP

US Congressional Budget Office projects FY2026 federal deficit at $1.9T (5.8% of GDP). Net interest costs cross $1T for the first time, doubling to $2.1T by 2036, and federal debt rises to 120% of GDP.

G7 finance ministers in Paris discuss macro imbalances, Middle East inflation

G7 finance ministers and central bank governors meeting 5/18-19 in Paris focused on reducing macro imbalances. ECB held April deposit rate at 2.0%, but Middle East conflict pushed eurozone April inflation to 3%, with markets pricing further hikes in June and September.

05Markets

Markets

Asia rallies amid Memorial Day closure, Nikkei 65,408 record drives risk appetite
Nikkei 225 jumps 3%, record 65,408

On 5/25 (Mon), Japan's Nikkei 225 surged over 3% to close at 65,408.87, breaking the 65,000 mark for the first time. Hormuz Strait reopening reports drove oil down and boosted risk appetite. Topix also rose 1.19%.

Kosdaq surges 4.99%, KOSPI flat at 7,847

On 5/22 (Fri), Kosdaq surged 4.99% to 1,161.13 on AI/semi state fund expectations. KOSPI took a breather after the prior day's rebound, rising 0.41% to 7,847.71. Korean markets are closed 5/25 for the public holiday with trading resuming 5/26.

Taiwan Weighted record, 43,495 up 2.91%

On 5/25 (Mon), Taiwan Weighted Index rose 2.91% to a record 43,495.92. Australia ASX200 +0.45%, China CSI300 +0.91%, India Nifty50 +1.09% rallied alongside. Hong Kong, Korea, and US markets are closed.

European Stoxx 600 closes at 625.12, up 0.73%

On 5/22 (Fri), pan-European Stoxx 600 rose 0.73% to 625.12, up about 2.3% for the week. ASML rose nearly 5%, banks like Santander and UniCredit, and industrials like Schneider and Airbus rose more than 2%.

Gold $4,516 down, VIX 16.70, USD/JPY in 159 area

On 5/22 (Fri), spot gold fell 0.58% to $4,516.75/oz; VIX held steady at 16.70 (-0.36%). USD/JPY remained above 159 with weakness persisting; Japan's inflation slowdown eased BOJ tightening pressure. Intervention vigilance at 160 remains.

06Rising

Top gainers

AI components, robots, cables, defense lead Korean stock surges, volatility after KOSPI 8,000 break
Samsung Electro-Mechanics surges 10.34% to 52-week high on MLCC supercycle

On May 4, intraday hit 918,000 won record; AI server MLCC and FC-BGA demand explosion drove Q1 revenue to record 3.2 trillion won, breaking 3T for the first time. Mirae Asset and Hyundai Motor Securities raised target prices 90-145%, driving the Korean components rally.

CosmoRobotics 29.95% limit-up, cumulative 778% surge

Wearable rehab robot firm with 6,000 won IPO price hit double-limit on listing day then 4 consecutive limit-ups, with May 19 limit-up to 48,600 won marking 778% cumulative surge. North America market entry expectations and foreign/institutional buying concentration drove momentum.

Gaon Cable limit-up, copper price surge expectations drive cable rally

Following late-April reports of expected copper price surges, Gaon Cable hit limit-up on KOSPI, with cable and copper-related stocks surging in turn. AI data center power infrastructure demand expectations drove concentrated buying; KT Submarine and Daehan Cable also rallied.

Samsung Electronics surges 11% on AI server parts supply expectations

On May 22, Samsung Electronics jumped 11% on AI server parts supply expansion expectations; the same day Samsung Electro-Mechanics rose 12.06%, Hyundai Mobis 16.45%, LG Electronics 9.17%. Semis and AI stocks led KOSPI's breakthrough of the 8,000 level.

Gaeyang Electric, Sigetronics limit-up, LG Electronics 17% rally

On May 12, amid mixed KOSPI top-traded names, Gaeyang Electric hit 10,990 won limit-up and Kosdaq's Sigetronics also limit-up. LG Electronics surged 17%, leading concentrated buying in top trading value names with strong dual-momentum stock activity.

07Tech

Tech

Anthropic 30 trillion won close, Figure AI hourly production, Google AI glasses, Apple-Intel chip deal
Anthropic $900B valuation $30B round closing next week

Sequoia, Dragoneer, Altimeter, Greenoaks co-lead $30B round closing the week of May 26. Valuation of $900B surpasses OpenAI's $852B, making Anthropic the world's highest-valued AI startup imminent.

Figure AI scales humanoid production to 1 per hour with autonomous operation

Figure 03 scaled from 1 per day to 1 per hour at BotQ factory in 4 months, shipping 350+ units. Helix-02 neural network performs fully autonomous package sorting without teleoperation.

Google formalizes Gemini smart glasses fall launch

At Google I/O 2026, Android XR-based intelligent eyewear unveiled. Audio/display glasses developed with Samsung, Warby Parker, and Gentle Monster launch this fall with both iOS and Android pairing support.

Apple-Intel reach preliminary chip production deal, TSMC concentration eased

Apple reaches preliminary agreement to manufacture some chips at Intel foundries. After over a year of negotiations, US government mediation closed the deal; Intel stock surged 15%. Eliminating TSMC single-source dependency is the core motivation, securing a decisive external customer win.

Samsung bundles memory + 2nm foundry pitch to lure MediaTek

Chairman Lee Jae-yong visited Taiwan to meet MediaTek CEO Tsai Li-hsing, pitching HBM/DRAM priority supply bundled with 2nm foundry. The push leverages DRAM contract prices nearly doubling in Q1 due to AI infrastructure demand.

08Startups

Startups

AI mega-rounds, prediction markets, micromobility IPOs — capital floods all sectors
Anthropic $30B round closing next week

Sequoia, Dragoneer, Altimeter, Greenoaks co-lead with about $2B each. Valued at $900B+, with Founders Fund and General Catalyst also participating — the largest AI round in history.

Cursor raises $2B, entering $50B valuation

AI coding startup Anysphere (Cursor) in talks for $2B round co-led by a16z. Nvidia, Thrive, Battery Ventures join; valuation doubles from $29.3B with 2026 revenue projected at $6B, accelerating growth.

Lime files Nasdaq IPO, ticker LIME

Uber-backed micromobility Lime filed S-1 on May 7 targeting June listing. 2025 revenue $887M, net loss $59M; Renaissance Capital estimates $250M raise but $676M debt burden remains.

Kalshi raises $1B at $22B valuation

Prediction market exchange Kalshi confirms $1B round led by Coatue, with Sequoia, a16z, Paradigm, IVP, Morgan Stanley, and ARK joining. Institutional volume surged 800% over 6 months, annualized trading volume tripled to $178B.

May 21 mega-deal flood: Hark, Modal, Mercury simultaneous closes

AI lab Hark closes $700M+ Series A ($6B valuation), Modal raises $355M Series C led by General Catalyst, fintech Mercury raises $200M Series D led by TCV. Same day, Exa also closes $250M Series C.

09Crypto

Crypto

BTC $77K range, stablecoins $323B record high, RWA $34.5B drawing institutional capital
BTC $76,856, ETH $2,095 range on macro uncertainty

On May 24, Bitcoin traded at $76,856 (market cap $1.49T) and Ethereum at $2,095. Inflation, Middle East risks, ETF outflows, and leveraged liquidations created short-term pressure, with BTC ranging above $77K.

BlackRock IBIT holdings cross 806K BTC

BlackRock's spot BTC ETF IBIT recorded over $3B in YTD net inflows, holdings exceeding 806,700 BTC. As of May 22, NAV at $43.07 (YTD -11.32%), with institutional inflows continuing.

Stablecoin market cap $323B record high, USDT 59%

May stablecoin total market cap hit a record $323.2B. Tether USDT renewed ATH at $190B with 59.2% share regained; USDC ranks second at $77.6B. Market liquidity broke through $320.6B.

RWA tokenization market $34.5B, BUIDL crosses $2.5B

On-chain RWA market grew 100% annually to $34.5B. BlackRock BUIDL AUM expanded to $2.5B; on May 8, two new tokenized fund filings submitted to SEC. Uniswap and BUIDL 24/7 trading integration also announced.

EU Commission launches MiCA review, July 1 deadline

European Commission opened two MiCA regulation public and targeted consultations on May 21, closing August 31. Euro stablecoin competitiveness is core. July 1 full EU implementation deadline; of top 10, only USDC and EURC are compliant.

10Health

Health

Ebola PHEIC 746 cases 176 deaths, Lilly oral GLP-1 FDA approved, MAHA at crossroads
WHO Bundibugyo Ebola PHEIC: 746 suspected, 176 deaths

Bundibugyo Ebola spreading across DRC's Ituri province and Uganda. As of May 21: 746 suspected cases, 176 deaths, 85 confirmed cases, 10 deaths. No Bundibugyo-specific vaccine or treatment exists; 30-50% fatality concerns rising with 6-9 months until clinical trials.

Lilly oral GLP-1 'Foundayo' (orforglipron) FDA obesity approval

First-ever oral GLP-1 taken once daily without food/water restrictions. 72-week 12.4% weight loss exceeded oral semaglutide. With insurance $25/month, cash $149+ — fully opening the pill era.

HHS appeals injunction blocking Kennedy vaccine policy

DOJ filed appeal against Judge Murphy's March injunction blocking RFK Jr. vaccine policies including ACIP restructuring. American Academy of Pediatrics and others sued for Administrative Procedure Act violations, with main proceedings expected to be prolonged.

MAHA secures 35% food industry artificial dye phase-out, coalition cracks

Walmart, Hershey, Nestle and 35% of US food industry join artificial dye removal. Child vaccine recommendations cut from 72 doses across 17 diseases to 10. MAHA coalition fractures emerging over glyphosate and vaccine positions.

FDA approves first anal cancer 1L treatment 'retifanlimab' and more oncology wins

PD-1 monoclonal retifanlimab approved as first 1L treatment for advanced anal cancer. Sonrotoclax (relapsed mantle cell lymphoma), atezolizumab (muscle-invasive bladder cancer adjuvant), and first PROTAC based on VERITAC-2 also approved in May — strong oncology month.

11Culture

Culture

Park Chan-wook Cannes closing, Mungiu 'Fjord' Palme d'Or, Mandalorian $100M opening
Cannes Palme d'Or to 'Fjord', Mungiu's second win

Christian Mungiu's 'Fjord' won the 79th Cannes Film Festival Palme d'Or. The drama about a Romanian family relocated to Norway becoming an Office of Child Welfare target stars Sebastian Stan and Renate Reinsve. Distributor NEON became the seven-year consecutive Palme d'Or distributor.

Jury President Park Chan-wook: 'Didn't want to give it, but had no choice'

Park Chan-wook, the first Korean to serve as Cannes Competition jury president, joked at the closing ceremony: 'I didn't want to give the Palme d'Or, but I had no choice.' The pun referencing his own film title drew widespread attention.

Na Hong-jin 'Hope' Cannes major awards miss despite 7-minute ovation

Director Na Hong-jin's 'Hope', the first Korean film to enter Cannes Competition in 4 years, received a 7-minute standing ovation at Lumière Theater world premiere but failed to win Palme d'Or or director award. Jeon Ho-yeon's scenes drew particular cheers.

'Mandalorian and Grogu' Memorial Day $100M opening

Star Wars sequel 'Mandalorian and Grogu' opened to $102M domestic over the 4-day Memorial Day weekend. Global $165M but Disney's lowest Star Wars opening since acquisition, with A- CinemaScore and $165M production budget leaving recovery room.

LE SSERAFIM releases 2nd album 'Pureflow Pt.' on May 22

LE SSERAFIM released second full album 'Pureflow Pt.' on May 22, entering weekend comeback activities. The new full-length from the 4-year-old group, paired with world tour, has chart performance and global reaction emerging as the weekend's biggest K-pop story.

12Fashion

Fashion

Cannes 2026 closing, Cruise 2027 stage face-offs continue despite luxury Q1 slowdown
Cannes 79 closing ceremony, red carpet by Chanel, LV, Gucci

At the May 23 Cannes closing, Palme d'Or winner Renate Reinsve appeared in Louis Vuitton silver pants. Tilda Swinton wore a red Chanel gown, Zoe Saldana wore Chanel, Penelope Cruz wore vintage Georges Chakra.

Louis Vuitton Cruise 2027 unveiled at New York Frick Collection

On May 20, Nicolas Ghesquière presented Cruise 2027 at the Frick Collection's first-floor gallery. Drawing from Keith Haring's drawings on 1930s LV trunks, the collection combined origami leather with Renaissance-collar denim.

Matthieu Blazy debuts Chanel Cruise in Biarritz

Matthieu Blazy unveiled first Chanel Cruise at Biarritz's Casino Municipal on April 28. With 'Sous le Salon la Plage' theme, the show featured reinterpreted 1926 black dresses, rubber boots, pepper-shaped earrings, and beaded mermaid gown finale.

LVMH and Kering Q1 weak, Middle East conflict drags luxury

LVMH Q1 revenue 19.1B euros down 6% (organic +1%); fashion and leather -2%. Kering revenue 3.57B euros down 6%, Gucci -8%, Middle East retail -11%. Both missed analyst expectations; luxury recovery has stalled.

Kering Women in Motion, Julianne Moore in Bottega

At May 17 Cannes Kering Women in Motion Awards, Julianne Moore took the award in Bottega Veneta. Salma Hayek in feathered white gown, Bella Hadid in custom Prada, Cate Blanchett in Sarah Burton's Givenchy.

13Politics

Politics

Trump Iran deal imminent, UK Starmer crisis, Korea 6/3 by-election D-9 unfold simultaneously
Trump says Iran deal 'mostly settled', Hormuz reopening

President Trump said on May 23 that the Iran peace agreement featuring Strait of Hormuz reopening is 'mostly settled', though core issues like nuclear abandonment and sanctions removal remain disputed. Memorial Day weekend oil pressure makes announcement imminent.

Korea June 3 local/by-election official campaign launches

On May 21, official campaigning for June 3 local and by-elections began with 7,813 registered candidates. With 16 metropolitan mayors and 14 National Assembly seats at stake, this 'mini general election' is the first nationwide referendum on the Lee Jae-myung administration.

UK PM Starmer faces resignation pressure, cabinet exodus

After Labour's May local election loss of 1,500 seats, Health Secretary Wes Streeting and other ministers and political deputies resigned. With 97 MPs demanding resignation and 159 in support, party infighting intensifies. Reform UK won 1,454 seats.

Putin-Xi Beijing summit, Siberia gas pipeline collapse

Beijing summit May 20-21 adopted 40 agreements and multipolarity joint declaration, but Russia's coveted 'Power of Siberia 2' gas pipeline agreement failed. Military and tech cooperation expansion agreed, demonstrating China-Russia solidarity amid US-Iran war.

Gaza ceasefire 'permanent division' warning, UN Security Council roadmap

On May 21, UN Middle East Special Coordinator Mladenov warned Security Council of permanent Gaza division risk and presented permanent ceasefire roadmap. After last October's ceasefire, 856 Palestinians died over 7 months with Israel controlling over 50% of Gaza.

14Energy

Energy

Hormuz 87-day blockade, US Memorial Day gas $4.56 four-year high persists
US Memorial Day gas $4.56/gallon, four-year high

National average gasoline at $4.56/gallon, up 3 cents week-over-week, surged $1.38 year-over-year. Prolonged Hormuz blockade combined with summer driving season demand drives prices to highest since 2022's $4.61. California at $6.14.

Hormuz closed 87th day, Brent May average $106/barrel

After Iran's Feb 28 Hormuz blockade declaration, tanker traffic dropped 70% to effectively zero. Brent peaked at $138 April 7 then stabilized at $106 May-June average. Gulf producers' output down 14.4mb/d versus pre-war; June gradual reopening expected.

OPEC+ June +188K b/d output increase, Saudi 10.29M b/d target

On May 3, OPEC+ 8-country virtual meeting agreed June daily 188,000 barrel output increase. Saudi and Russia each add 62K b/d, reaching Saudi 10.291M b/d and Russia 9.762M b/d targets. UAE exited OPEC May 1, lowering 2027 spare capacity to 2.5M b/d.

European TTF gas 49.8€/MWh, Qatar LNG 17% force majeure

TTF futures hit 49.8 euros/MWh six-week high on May 20 then declined. Qatar Energy declared force majeure on 17% of liquefaction capacity in early March; about 20% of global LNG supply blocked. US-Iran negotiation resumption hopes have eased prices.

China SPR 1.4B barrels, imports Russian oil at 2.1M b/d

China's strategic petroleum reserve at 1.4B barrels year-end, world's largest, with net imports covering 110-180 days exceeding IEA safety standards. Q1 Russian seaborne oil 90% went to China and India, with exports to China reaching 2.1M b/d. Iranian oil supplies 13% of China imports at discount.

15Labor

Labor

Samsung wage agreement passage imminent, Meta 8K layoffs, young SW developer hiring -20%
Samsung Electronics union ratification vote turnout exceeds 80% on day one

Samsung Group Cho-gi-eob (Super-Enterprise) Union Samsung Branch's 2026 wage and collective bargaining ratification vote began on May 23, with turnout exceeding 80% within a day. As of May 24 5PM, turnout hit 85.1%; voting closes May 27 at 10AM. With 80% of union in DS division, passage likelihood is high.

Meta begins 8,000 layoffs, 10% of total workforce

Meta began notifying about 8,000 layoffs starting May 20. As capital reallocation for AI infrastructure investment, 6,000 new hires cancelled too. Integration, cybersecurity, and content design teams hit; 2026 capex guidance raised to $125B-145B.

US tech layoffs total 110K, 137 firms affected

Per Layoffs.fyi, about 110K were laid off across 137 tech firms in 2026. The pace approaches the full 2025 total of 125K. Analysis suggests restructuring is for capital shift to AI infrastructure like GPUs and data centers, not revenue weakness.

Stanford AI Index 2026: 22-25 developer hiring -20%

Per Stanford HAI's 2026 AI Index, hiring of software developers aged 22-25 declined about 20% since late 2022 when generative AI took off. At same firms, age 30+ hiring grew 6-12% instead, with clear age gap.

Hyundai Motor union demands 30% net income bonus, retirement age 65

Hyundai Motor union 2026 wage talks demand 149,600 won base pay hike, 30% of prior year net income as bonus, 800% bonus pay. Other demands include retirement age extension to 65 linked to national pension, AI-related employment guarantees, abolition of wage peak system — summer struggle clouds gather.

16Mobility

Mobility

Waymo highway suspension, Tesla FSD Europe expansion, EU 2035 ICE eased to 90%
Waymo temporarily halts US-wide highway operation

After construction zone driving error videos spread, SF, LA, Phoenix, and Miami highway robotaxi operations were temporarily halted; Atlanta service also halted. Resumption planned after software update, but autonomous service limits exposed as case study.

Tesla FSD enters Lithuania, second European country

On May 20, Tesla launched supervised FSD service in Lithuania, following Netherlands. EU mutual recognition framework enabled quick approval without separate verification; Belgium and Greece additions imminent, with 2-quarter Europe-wide expansion accelerating.

IEA forecasts 2026 global EV sales at 23M units

IEA Global EV Outlook 2026 forecasts this year's global EV sales at 23M units, up 15% YoY. About 30% of new car sales, with Chinese makers holding 60% global share — accelerating adoption trend cemented.

BYD domestic falls 8 straight months, exports surge 70% offset

April BYD China domestic sales fell 15.7% for 8th straight monthly decline, but exports surged 70.9% to 135K units, 42.8% of total. Sprinting toward 1.5M annual export target, holding No.1 in UK and Brazil.

EU 2035 ICE full ban eased to 90% reduction retreat

EU Commission replaces 2035 100% ICE sales ban with 90% CO2 reduction proposal. Remaining 10% offset by green steel, e-fuels, biofuels; PHEV and mild hybrid production continues allowed — easing auto industry burden signal.

17Conspiracy watch

Conspiracy watch

Pope, RFK deepfakes, Trump satire, Meloni AI photos spread fake news across May third week
Pope Leo XIV 'snubbed LGBTQ flag' video hits 12M views

Video on X claiming Pope Leo XIV deliberately snubbed an LGBTQ rainbow flag hit 12M views, but fact-check confirmed the flag in the video was an Italian peace flag with 'pace' written on it, unrelated to the LGBTQ flag.

Trump 'criminalize gas station price photos' post is fake

Posts claiming Trump wrote on X 'I will criminalize taking and posting photos of gas station prices' spread in May, but Snopes investigation found no trace of the post on X or Truth Social, and the Facebook sharer also identified it as satire.

RFK Jr. 'COVID vaccine causes gayness' video is manipulated

Video showing Health Secretary RFK Jr. saying 'conspiracy theorists were right and COVID vaccine causes gayness' spread, but Lead Stories verification confirmed audio manipulation; the original video had no such statement and watermark traced to a satire account.

Italian PM Meloni 'lingerie photo' is AI deepfake

Image claiming Italian PM Meloni shared her own lingerie photo went viral on SNS in early May, but Lead Stories verification confirmed it was actually an AI-based deepfake image users genuinely spread.

'2022 tweet predicted hantavirus outbreak' rumor spreads

After April cruise ship hantavirus outbreak, rumor that 2022 X post saying '2023 COVID ends... 2026 hantavirus' precisely predicted events spread, but Snopes verification confirmed coincidence with no predictive value.

⌚ Watch ahead

Looking ahead

What to watch ahead

  • Samsung provisional agreement 5/27 vote close, immediate counting5/22-27 48K-person wage provisional agreement ratification vote closes 5/27 at 10AM, with passage determining June memory supply chain trajectory.
  • Trump Iran deal official announcement imminentAfter Trump's 'mostly settled' remark, 5/26-28 official announcement likelihood emerged, making Hormuz reopening and oil exit from $100 the week's inflection point.
  • Memorial Day 5/25 gasoline and travel demandWhether 5/25 Memorial Day gasoline breaks $5 and 45M travel forecast materializes determines May-June household cost pressure intensity.
  • Anthropic 30 trillion won round May-end closing$900B valuation $30B round closing the week of May 26 would confirm the largest AI round in history, cementing the mega-valuation cycle peak.
  • Fed Warsh 6/16-17 first FOMC awaitsWith 30Y at 5.08%, the new chair's first policy decision and the 97% hawkish hold pricing's verification has approached.
  • SARB MPC 5/28 25bp hike forecastWith South Africa April CPI 4% surge, May 28 SARB 25bp hike from 6.75% has cemented as consensus, with ZAR defense battle launching.
  • EU MiCA transition 7/1 expiresTransition expiration starts unlicensed CASP EU service cutoff on 7/1, with exchanges and issuers entering final licensing test.
  • Korea 6/3 local/by-election D-9Mini general election with 16 metropolitan mayors and 14 National Assembly seats at stake is Lee Jae-myung government's first national referendum, with 6/3 main voting ahead.
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