Energy & climate

Brent $104 and WTI above $101 as Hormuz blockade enters week eleven

On May 12, Brent rose 0.73% to $104.97/bbl, while WTI closed in the $101 range. Renewed tension followed the May 5 attack on CMA CGM San Antonio and the May 8 seizure of Ocean Koi. Vessel traffic through Hormuz has fallen from a prewar average of 70 ships per day to just 2-5.

Aramco CEO: 100M barrels lost each week, normalization unlikely before 2027

Aramco CEO Amin Nasser said on May 11 that the Hormuz crisis has removed a cumulative 1 billion barrels from global supply and is causing an additional 100 million barrels of losses each week. The IEA called it the largest supply disruption in oil-market history.

Europe TTF at EUR44.7/MWh, Asia JKM near $18 as gas prices jump together

According to the EIA, the Hormuz blockade has cut off roughly one-fifth of global LNG supply, lifting TTF 35% and JKM 51% since late February. As of May 12, TTF stood at EUR44.7/MWh, while Northeast Asia JKM June delivery was around $18/MMBtu.

U.S. shale 2026 outlook cut to 11.09mb/d; DUC wells rise fourth month

The EIA's May Short-Term Energy Outlook cut its 2026 U.S. shale production forecast from 11.25mb/d to 11.09mb/d and lowered total crude output from 13.42mb/d to 13.37mb/d. Drilled but uncompleted wells rose by 25 in May to 5,319, the longest increasing streak since Covid.

U.S. 2026 new generation capacity to hit record 86GW: solar 51%, batteries 28%

The EIA says the U.S. will add 86GW of new generation capacity in 2026, with solar, wind, and batteries accounting for 99%. Planned additions include 43.4GW of solar, up 60% YoY, 24GW of batteries, and 11.8GW of wind. The 800MW Vineyard Wind 1 and 3,650MW SunZia Wind projects also enter commercial operation. EU ETS carbon prices reached EUR75.51/t in April, the highest since February.

Brent $104, Hormuz supplies tank

On May 11, Brent July climbed 3% to $104.21; WTI June closed at $98.07. Trump's Iran rejection lets Hormuz blockade persist. The IEA flags this as an all-time supply shock.

Dutch TTF gas breaches 46 euros again

TTF futures hit 46.23 euros/MWh on May 11, up 4.74% and 31.57% YoY. Hormuz cuts off ~20% of global LNG; Europe races to rebuild winter reserves.

CATL China battery dominance: 46.6%

CATL led April China EV battery installs at 46.64% of 29.06 GWh. New Naxtra sodium-ion cells cost ~$19/kWh—one-third of LFP ($55–60). LG Energy Solution's ternary fell from 17.86% to 3.02%.

Westinghouse SMR lands Euro data-center deal

Europe's Data4 signed an MOU with Westinghouse to deploy AP300 SMR (330MWe) at European data centers. Fermi America pairs AP1000 reactors (4 units) with a 5GW data-center campus. U.S. INL gets 60MW MK60 units phased in.

South Asia 46°C heatwave, Africa flood crisis

Parts of India and Pakistan exceeded 46°C (115°F) with record overnight highs, straining power grids. South Africa's Gamtoos Valley flash floods displaced 2,000+.

Brent Closes $101.73 on Hormuz Combat Reignition

May 8 Brent closed at $101.73/barrel (+1.66%), after intraday spike to $108.80 and crash to $96.80. IEA warned conflict removed 14 million barrels/day supply.

Hormuz: De Facto Closure Since Late February; 20,000 Crew Stranded

Per IMO, approximately 2,000 vessels with maximum 20,000 crew remain stranded. UAE reported missile and drone interceptions; Trump administration awaits Pakistan-routed Iran response.

Aker Solutions–Rolls-Royce SMR: Non-Core Module Supply MOU

Aker Solutions inked MOU with Rolls-Royce SMR for non-core module packages, targeting UK and Czech Republic as initial deployment zones, validating SMR market momentum.

Nano Nuclear–Supermicro: Micro Modular Reactor MOU for AI Data Centers

U.S. micro modular reactor developer Nano Nuclear signed MOU with Super Micro Computer for AI economy power supply May 5, expanding AI-to-nuclear trend into public company phase.

U.S. SEC Advances Climate Disclosure Rule Repeal to White House

May 6 SEC forwarded Biden-era corporate climate risk and emissions disclosure mandate repeal to White House. Trump 2.0 climate policy retreat extends to capital markets disclosure.

Brent Crude Plummets to $100.45; WTI at $94.81

On 5/7, Brent closed approximately 8% lower at $100.45/bbl with WTI at $94.81. Risk premiums compressed as markets priced in normalized Strait of Hormuz operations contingent on Iran peace talks.

EU Adopts Small Modular Reactor Strategy; 200M Euros Investment Guarantee

The EU commission adopted its SMR strategy in March, introducing 200 million euros in investment guarantees to accelerate small modular reactor deployment. A 12-nation Nuclear Alliance targets 150GW capacity by 2050.

IEA Projects 2026 Solar Growth at +28%; Wind at +10%

The IEA Electricity 2026 report forecasts global solar photovoltaic growth of +28% in 2026 (a moderation from 2025's +40%) and wind energy at +10%. Combined solar-wind penetration is projected to increase from 17% in 2025 to 19% in 2026.

Data Centers, AI, and Crypto Projected to Consume 4% of Global Electricity by 2026

The IEA reports data centers, AI systems, and cryptocurrency collectively consumed 2% of global electricity in 2022, with projections doubling to 4% by 2026. U.S. and EU AI infrastructure acceleration is driving SMR demand.

EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook; May Update on Global Supply and Inventories

The EIA's May Short-Term Energy Outlook updates global crude supply, demand, and inventory forecasts. Markets have priced in expectations of additional OPEC+ production should Iran peace scenarios materialize.

Pentagon Puts 150+ Wind Projects on Hold Amid Policy Shift

The Trump administration is systematically delaying wind energy development. Pentagon-tracked projects on pause exceed 150 installations.

Brent Crude at $106.52; Strait Constraint Persists with OPEC Shutins

Six OPEC members maintain 7.5 million barrels per day shutins since March. Peace deal optimism is providing temporary relief to risk premium.

Korea and Japan Wildfires Fueled by Record Heat; Temperatures 7–10 Degrees Above Historical Average

Korean wildfire conditions saw temperatures 4.5–10 degrees Fahrenheit above the 1991–2020 baseline, while western Japan recorded 7–8.5-degree anomalies. Japan suppressed fires within 11 days.

U.S. Central Plains Spring Storms Intensify; 5-Inch Hail Recorded in Missouri

Severe weather patterns strengthening. Western wildfire acreage exceeds seasonal averages.

Global Battery Capacity 2050 Forecast Raised 161%; Solar Expansion Follows

RFF's 2026 Energy Outlook projects global battery storage capacity will grow 161% by 2050 versus 2022 baseline, with parallel solar deployment.

Brent at $106.52, Down $10 Day-over-Day

U.S. Navy Strait of Hormuz escort operation halt triggers $10.03 Brent decline. WTI drops 8-10% to around $93.

IRENA: Solar+Battery 24/7 LCOE at $54-82/MWh; Cost-Effective Against New Fossil Fuel

High-quality resource areas: solar plus battery 24/7 LCOE surpasses new fossil fuel generation cost-basis. Released May 6.

U.S. EIA: 2026 New Deployment 86 GW; Renewables and Storage Comprise 99%

Solar 51%, battery 28%, wind 14%. Renewables and storage account for 99% of new generation capacity. Record-scale new deployment.

U.S. Solar New Build 43.4 GW; Year-over-Year Growth Up 60%

2026 utility-scale solar new deployment 43.4 GW, up 60% year-over-year. ITC and tax incentives fuel continued growth.

U.S. Battery Energy Storage 24 GW New Deployment; Doubles 2025 Record

Utility-scale battery storage 24 GW new deployment forecast for 2026. Significantly surpasses 2025's 15 GW record.

Brent $116.55/barrel (5/5 8:45 AM ET)

+$1.54 from previous day; approximately $56 higher year-over-year.

IEA warns of 14 million b/d global supply disruption

Recovery following Iran conflict expected to be gradual.

Panthalassa $140M, betting on ocean and renewable energy

Series B led by Peter Thiel highlights ocean tech attention.

Oil price stability supports earnings and AI momentum; renewed increase triggers macro headwinds

Iran-originating volatility is May's macro switch.

European equities up 0.7%, energy and Iran-exposed sectors stabilize

Stoxx 600 majority sectors green.

Brent Crude Briefly Breaks $115 per Barrel

At 8:45 a.m. ET on May 4, Brent briefly surpassed $115.01 per barrel, representing a $3.81 intraday gain and approximately a $55 year-over-year increase.

Brent Closes at $109.87 Amid Escort Operation Visibility

At market close, Brent settled at $109.87 and WTI at $102.27, with the risk premium partially dissipating following clarification of escort operations.

IEA Estimates 14 Million Barrels Per Day Supply Disruption

The IEA estimates a potential Hormuz disruption could impact 14 million barrels per day of global crude supply, with recovery expected to be gradual.

Trump Administration Resumes Arctic National Wildlife Refuge Leasing

The Trump administration has resumed oil and gas leasing on more than 1.5 million acres of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, reversing Biden-era policy.

U.S. Gasoline Average $4.45 per Gallon—Highest in Four Years

U.S. average gasoline prices stand at $4.45 per gallon, reflecting a $1.47 increase (49.3%) since the start of the Iran conflict.

IRENA: 24/7 Renewable Energy Achieves Cost Parity

Solar plus storage LCOE of $54-82/MWh in quality resource areas now undercuts China's new coal ($70-85/MWh) and global new gas ($100+/MWh).

U.S. Targets 80GW Capacity Addition Through February 2027

EIA forecasts 42.6GW of solar, 14.5GW of wind (including 4.2GW offshore), while fossil and nuclear capacity declines 5GW through February 2027.

2026 El Niño Formation Possible; Record Heat Expected

El Niño formation probability for late 2026 raises prospects of record-breaking temperatures and increased grid strain.

Wind and Solar Added 50%+ of 2024 Global Generation

Wind and solar additions totaled 650TWh in 2024—more than half of all new global electricity. By 2050, wind is projected at 25% and solar at 20% of global generation.

Iran Conflict Windfall Unevenly Distributed Across Oil Exporters

Brent's 6% surge benefited exporters like Saudi Arabia and the UAE, but import-dependent nations such as Kenya and Egypt face mounting current account pressures.

Global Oil Supply Declines 10.1M Barrels Daily in March

Supply fell to 97M barrels daily—historic maximum disruption. Middle East infrastructure attacks and strait closure combine.

World Bank Projects 2026 Energy Prices Up 24%

Greatest shock since 2022 Ukraine invasion; transmits 1 percentage point additional inflation to emerging markets.

U.S. Gasoline $4.30/Gallon; Diesel $5.80

April EIA STEO estimates peak prices for gasoline and diesel.

Brent Crude $114.66 on April 30

Up from $106.73 April 27; sustained U.S. reserves drawdown and Iran sanctions continue.

ICIS: U.S. 2026 Oil Price Outlook Up 46% from Year Start

Supply shock reflected in revised government forecast, substantially raised from initial assumptions.

Gulf Six-Nation April Shut-In: 9.1 Million Barrels Daily

Iraq, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Kuwait, Qatar, and Bahrain combined. Up from 7.5 million barrels in March.

Brent April 30: $114.66 (+$0.66)

Up $0.66 from prior day, approximately $53 higher year-over-year. Risk premium reflects Hormuz disruption persistence.

EIA Q2 Brent Average Projection: $115

April STEO detailed Q2 peak scenario, with gradual relief anticipated in Q3.

Stegra Green Steel Achieves Unicorn Status

Swedish green steel production facility Stegra closed billion-dollar round in April, exemplifying green capital models.

Sunrise Movement Youth Climate-Labor Coalition: 100,000-Student Strike

May 1 student and climate worker May Day alignment, expressed through school boycotts.

Brent Crude $114.66/Barrel; Up $53 Year-over-Year Amid Hormuz Closure

April 30 Brent $114.66 reflects $53 increase from prior year. Strait of Hormuz blockade since February 28 US-Israel strikes cuts off ~1/5 global supply.

US Retail Gasoline $4.30, Diesel $5.80 Peak for April

US average retail gasoline $4.30/gallon April average; diesel $5.80/gallon peak. 2026 energy costs forecast 24% above 2022 Ukraine war levels.

Global Crude Supply Falls 10.1M barrels/day; Record Disruption

March global crude production dropped 10.1M b/d to 97M b/d—record supply disruption. Brent average $103; 2Q peak forecast $115.

Global Renewables Additions Hit Record 800GW; Solar Leads 75%

2025 renewables capacity additions reached record ~800GW globally; solar accounts for 75%. China drives 60% with ~500GW.

US Renewable Additions 49GW, Down 10% Year-over-Year; Solar Weakness

US added 49GW renewables capacity, down 10% YoY. Solar underperformance primary driver. EU reached record 85GW, solar-led at 70GW.

March Global Oil Supply Collapsed 11% to 97 mb/d

Middle Eastern infrastructure attacks and Strait of Hormuz transit restrictions drove supply to 97 mb/d in March—a 10.1 mb/d decline from pre-war levels.

Santa Marta First International Fossil Fuel Transition Conference Concludes

The inaugural international conference on transitioning from fossil fuels concluded April 24-29 in Santa Marta. The central agenda addressed converting political will into concrete action.

Brent Crude at Approximately $84; Supports Russian War Economy

Brent crude spiked to approximately $84 following Iranian strikes. Elevated oil revenues indirectly support Russia's Ukraine financing.

EU Commission to Release Citizens' Energy Package Proposal on April 30

The European Commission will release a citizens' energy package on April 30, with accelerated transition and vulnerable-population protection as central pillars.

RFF: 1.5°C Climate Target Realistically Unattainable

RFF's Global Energy Outlook 2026 concludes that the 1.5°C target is effectively unachievable. Adaptation-focused policy emphasis is required.

Brent $111.49 — Week-Over-Week +13%

Al Jazeera 4/28: Despite Iran blockade relief proposal, Trump refusal sustains strength. ING raises 2026 outlook if Hormuz blockade persists.

World Bank — 2026 Energy +24%; Highest Since 2022

4/28 Commodity Outlook: Middle East conflict represents largest four-year energy price shock. Initial 10 million barrel-per-day supply disruption.

IEA — Renewables 36% Versus Coal 32%; 100-Year Low Coal Share

2026 marks first year renewables surpass coal as primary source. Wind and solar exceed nuclear. 2025 added 800GW renewable capacity (solar 75%).

150 Nations Renewable and Nuclear Policy — 32 Nations Supply Chain Diversification

IEA State of Energy Policy 2026: 130 nations pursue efficiency and electrification; 32 secure critical minerals and clean tech supply chain diversification.

EIA — April Short-Term Energy Outlook; Natural Gas Price Spillover

Conflict impact extends to natural gas and wholesale power markets. U.S. refining margins show gasoline-diesel spread volatility.

Brent Crude at $106.73; Up $40 Year-over-Year

Brent crude traded at $106.73 on April 27 (9 a.m. ET), approximately $40 higher than one year ago.

OPEC+ Production Down 9.4 Million Barrels per Day

OPEC+ production fell 9.4 million barrels per day to 42.4 million barrels per day, with Qatar production cuts offsetting increases from the U.S. and Brazil.

IEA Revises 2026 Global Oil Demand Forecast to -80,000 bbl/d

The IEA revised its 2026 global oil demand forecast downward to minus 80,000 barrels per day, a reversal from the prior projection of plus 730,000 barrels per day.

Major Oil Company Profits Dominate Headlines

Five major oil company profits dominate April headlines, reigniting energy security and climate policy debates.

1.5°C Climate Target Effectively Lost

RFF's Global Energy Outlook 2026 concludes the world has effectively lost the 1.5°C climate target.

Brent Closes at $108.23; June Contracts Up 3%

On the 26th, Brent June futures closed at $108.23, up approximately 3%. Intraday peaks in April reached nearly $128.

Global Oil Supply Down 10.1 mb/d; Largest Shock in History

The IEA reports March global oil supply fell 10.1 mb/d to 97 mb/d. The Hormuz blockade and infrastructure attacks represent the largest supply shock in history.

WTI at $106.73 as of April 27; Rises to $114.66 by April 30

WTI stood at $106.73 on April 27 and rose to $114.66 by April 30, reflecting rapid Hormuz risk pricing.

U.S. 2026 Generation Forecast: 4,325 BkWh; +1.2% Growth

The EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook projects 2026 U.S. total generation at 4,325 BkWh, up 1.2%. Solar generation is forecast up 17% in summer 2026.

Super El Niño Signal; 80% Probability October-December

The equatorial Pacific has entered ENSO-neutral conditions. Models project 85-94% probability of El Niño in summer and an 80% probability of 'strong' El Niño October-December.

Brent Crude at $106.01/Barrel — Up $39 Year-over-Year

Hormuz blockade disables 20% of global crude transit.

Global Crude Supply Down 10.1 mb/d to 97 mb/d in March

Record disruption; Middle East infrastructure attacks and transit restrictions accumulate.

California Gasoline Surpasses $6 Per Gallon

Iran war-driven energy crunch hits West Coast directly.

Oil Majors Earning Roughly $3,000 Per Second — Oxfam Warning

Six big oil companies projected to earn nearly $3,000/second in 2026.

UAE Announces OPEC Withdrawal Plans

Exit announcement next month — potential largest OPEC fracture in 50-year history.

EU Announces Energy Relief Package

Response to Iran war–driven price spikes; coordinated summer gas storage buildup planned.

Colombia Hosts 'Transitioning Away from Fossil Fuels' Summit

Santa Marta hosts inaugural session; policy recommendations released.

EIA Forecasts 80GW New Renewable and Storage Capacity for 2026

Solar +42.6GW (share 12.7→15.5%); wind +14.5GW.

China Datang Ningxia 500MW Solar Farm Operational

Direct data center supply arrangement; paired with desert-region dedicated transmission line.

Meta Reserves 1GW Space-Based Solar Power

Noon Energy partnership includes 100GWh ultra-long-duration storage.

Brent Crude at $101.14 per Barrel on April 22

Brent crude reached $101.14 per barrel as of 9:00 a.m. ET on April 22, up $33 compared to one year ago. The Strait of Hormuz handles 35% of global maritime oil trade.

EIA Projects Brent Peak of $115 per Barrel in Q2

The EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook projects Brent crude to peak at $115 per barrel in the second quarter before gradual moderation.

U.S. Gasoline Average Projected to Peak at $4.30 per Gallon in April

The EIA projects U.S. retail gasoline to average $4.30 per gallon in April, with annual average projections above $3.70 per gallon.

Initial Supply Disruption Reaches Record 10 Million Barrels per Day

The Strait of Hormuz dispute created initial supply disruptions of 10 million barrels per day, the largest on record.

Summer Solar Generation Projected Up 17% Year-over-Year

The EIA projects 2026 summer solar generation to exceed prior-year levels by 17%, surpassing wind generation again.

Brent Crude Reaches $95; Cumulative Loss 650M Barrels

Daily disruption surpasses 13 million barrels; record-high supply gap.

Iran RPG Attack on Greek Cargo Ship in Hormuz

Additional reports of U.S. tanker blockades in East Africa and Indian Ocean.

Earth Day 'Our Power, Our Planet'

150 countries adopt renewables and nuclear policies; 130 expand energy efficiency commitments.

Wisconsin Tornado Outbreak and Western Snow Deficit

Wildfire season risk elevated; policy signal ambiguity.

World Bank: Largest Energy Price Shock in Four Years

Middle East conflict-driven inflation threatens emerging markets.

Brent crude $96.32; gasoline $4; diesel $5

As of April 21, 8:45 ET. Up $29.70 from one year prior. EIA projects quarterly high of $115/barrel.

Straits of Hormuz reclosed within 24 hours; 20,000 sailors stranded

April 21 brief reopening followed by April 22 reclosure. IMO reports 2,000 vessels and 20,000 sailors adrift.

U.S. 2026 utility-scale solar +43.4GW; all-time record

EIA: solar represents 51% of 86GW new capacity; battery energy storage systems, 28%. Annual solar additions up 60% YoY.

AI simulates 13,000 virtual worlds: 2°C feasible, 1.5°C difficult

April 21 analysis shows wind and solar pathways compatible with 2°C scenario but insufficient for 1.5°C.

Goldman Environmental Prize: all six 2026 winners are women

South Korea's Kim Bo-rim (Y4CA) first Asian youth-led constitutional climate litigation winner; five other honorees across five nations.

GCC Six-Nation Oil Curtailment Expands to 9.1MMbbl/d in April

Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, UAE, Qatar, and Bahrain collectively extended April cuts from March's 7.5MMbbl/d.

U.S. Average Gasoline Approaches $4.30/gal; April Peak

EIA short-term outlook projects April monthly average gasoline near $4.30, marking the month's high.

U.S. LNG Exports Near 18Bcf/d; Approaching All-Time High

U.S. LNG facilities operate at near-maximum capacity as Middle East disruptions account for ~20% of global trade shortfall.

2026 U.S. New Generation Capacity Totals 80GW+; Fossil and Nuclear Down 5GW

Solar accounts for 51% (43.4GW), battery energy storage 28% (24GW), wind 14%. Fossil fuel and nuclear capacity declines 5GW.

Renewables Overtake Coal as World's Leading Power Source in 2024

Carbon Brief reports that renewable generation first exceeded coal by generation volume, marking a historic inflection.

Brent Crude Falls From $120 to $90 Per Barrel Over April; Ceasefire Anchors Volatility

Brent crude futures plummeted from $120/barrel at April's start to $90/barrel by April 17, driven by ceasefire expectations and Washington-Tehran negotiation signals amplifying price swings.

Global Oil Supply Plummets 10.1 Million Barrels Per Day—Record Disruption

The IEA's April Oil Market Report indicated global crude supply fell 10.1 million barrels per day in March to 97 million barrels daily—a record disruption driven by Strait of Hormuz transit constraints and Middle East infrastructure damage.

U.S. Retail Gasoline Reaches $4.30/Gal, Diesel $5.80+/Gal—April Peak

EIA data showed U.S. average retail gasoline at $4.30/gallon and diesel at $5.80+ in April, marking monthly peaks that directly pressured household transportation and food costs.

Colombia Fossil-Fuel Exit Summit Confirms 46-Nation Attendance

Major oil-producing nations confirmed participation in Colombia's fossil-fuel phase-down summit in late April, with global momentum hitting its apex. Solar represented 75% of new renewable additions globally, totaling 510 gigawatts.

Minnesota County Records Four Tornadoes in Single Day—Record High; Temperature Records Fall Across Region

Olmsted County, Minnesota, experienced four tornadoes on April 17—a county daily record. The region saw 45+ daily high-temperature records broken between April 16-17 and April 22-23, with peaks of 80-90F and 100F.

Brent Crude at $96.18/bbl (April 17)—Up $28 Year-over-Year

Fortune and IEA data show Brent at $96.18 on April 17, a $28 jump from year-ago. Hormuz's 35% global crude weighting is critical variable.

EIA Short-Term Outlook: Gasoline $4.30/gal, Diesel $5.80+ Peak Forecast

World Bank: Energy Prices Rise 24%—Highest Since 2022

World Bank Commodity Outlook (April 28) projects 2026 energy prices 24% above baseline—the sharpest increase since the Ukraine war.

Supply Shock Risk: 10 Million Barrels Daily

Initial global crude supply disruption scenarios reach 10 million barrels daily—largest conceivable shock in modern energy markets.

RFF: 1.5°C Climate Target Now Likely Unmet

Resources for the Future publishes 'Global Energy Outlook 2026: 1.5°C Target Unachievable,' warning of prolonged fossil-fuel dependence.

WTI May crude drops to $83.85; Brent June to $90.38

Following Iran's announcement, both benchmarks fell sharply. The trading range—$70 to $119 during the conflict—compressed to the $90 band.

Midwest experiences 86-tornado outbreak spanning five states

April 17–18 tornadoes struck Illinois, Minnesota, Missouri, and Wisconsin. Lena, Illinois suffered the most severe damage; Weston and Ringle, Wisconsin, saw EF-3 intensity; Rochester, Minnesota, registered EF-2.

Renewables surge 800 GW globally; solar captures 75%

The IEA reports 2025 global renewable additions of 800 GW (record-breaking), with solar representing 75%. Wind plus solar are projected to add roughly 1,000 TWh in 2026—equivalent to Japan's annual consumption.

China adds 370 GW solar, 117 GW wind in 2025

China deployed approximately 370 GW of solar PV (up 13% YoY) and 117 GW of wind (up 48% YoY) in 2025—representing over 60% of global additions.

EIA forecasts 80 GW of new US solar, wind, and storage in 2026

The US Energy Information Administration expects 80 GW of additional capacity from solar, wind, and energy storage to come online in 2026 as infrastructure deployment accelerates.

WTI May Crude Crashes 9.8% to $85.37 as Iran Signals Strait Opening

Iran's foreign minister announced the Strait of Hormuz would be 'fully open,' triggering a 9.8% collapse in WTI May futures to $85.37 and a 9.1% drop in Brent to $90.38.

EIA: 80GW of Solar, Wind, Storage Set to Come Online in U.S. Through 2027

The EIA's April Short-Term Energy Outlook projects 80 gigawatts of utility-scale solar, wind, and battery storage capacity to begin operations by February 2027.

IEA: Renewables Poised to Overtake Coal as World's Top Power Source in 2026

The IEA forecasts renewables will surpass coal to become the global primary power source by late 2026, with wind-plus-solar share expanding from 17% in 2025 to roughly 20% in 2026.

Global Renewable Capacity Additions Hit 800GW; Solar Claims 75% Share

African Development Bank: Middle East Crisis to Trim Africa Growth by 0.2 Percentage Points

The African Development Bank estimates Middle East disruptions will cut 2026 African growth by 0.2 percentage points. Rising fertilizer and shipping costs could spike food inflation 20% and push 20 million people into food insecurity.

EIA Raises 2026 Brent Forecast to $96; Spot at $96.83

The EIA on April 15 raised its 2026 average Brent forecast to $96 per barrel. Spot prices retreated to $96.83, down $3.36 from prior close, reflecting blockade moderation. Blockade duration, OPEC+ policy, and U.S. shale supply are variables.

Syria Routes Iraqi Oil via Baniyas; East Med Transit Activated

Syria initiated April 15 loading of Iraqi crude at Baniyas refinery for seaborne export, a bilateral arrangement responding to Hormuz blockade. East Mediterranean shipping routes are being activated.

Norway March Oil Exports Hit Record $6.08B

Norway's March crude export revenue reached 57.4 billion krone (approximately $6.08 billion), the highest on record. Hormuz blockade-driven European demand for alternative supply lifted both volume and price.

IPCC Launches CDR and CCUS Methodology Roadmap

The IPCC convened 150+ experts in Rome April 14–16 at the FAO headquarters for the first lead author meeting on a 2027 CDR and CCUS methodology report. The roadmap will set government CO2 accounting standards.

U.S. Utilities Plan $1.4T Capex Through 2030

PowerLines analysis released April 14 shows 51 U.S. utilities planning $1.4 trillion capital expenditure by 2030, up 27% from $1.1 trillion. AI data center electricity demand is the primary driver.

Brent at $100.19; Down $3.52 from Previous Close

As of April 14 8am ET, Brent traded near $100.19, shedding $3.52 from the prior day but remaining up $35 YoY.

Summer Solar Output Forecast +17% YoY

The EIA projected on April 13 that 2026 summer solar generation will rise 17% year-over-year.

2025 Global CO2 Emissions Rise Just 0.4%—2018 Low But Record Volume

The IEA's April 14 Global Energy Review 2026 showed 2025 energy-related CO2 up just 0.4% YoY—the slowest since 2018—but total volume hit a record 38.4 gigatons.

North American PPA Prices Hit All-Time High

Q1 average wind PPA rates reached $79.40/MWh and solar $64.49/MWh—both 2018 highs—marking year-over-year jumps of +24% and +13% respectively.

EIA: 80GW New U.S. Capacity in 2026, 88%+ Renewables

Brent $103.72; 25% of global seaborne crude paralyzed

Iran throughput halts to 567K bpd. Hormuz traffic minimal.

U.S. 86GW new utility capacity 2026; 99% solar + battery

EIA and Environment America analysis. Solar alone hits 43.4GW, +60% YoY as of 4/13.

Italy extends coal power to 2038—13-year delay from plan

Mideast energy crisis rocks EU decarbonization timeline.

Global renewable energy 2025: 510GW solar, 159GW wind added

Renewables now 1/3 of core generation. Coal share falls below 1/3 for first time.

EU, U.S. clean incentives vs. fossil price shock

Earth.Org 4/1 climate roundup: 2026 is 1.5°C breakpoint. Policy priorities shift.

EU ETS Emissions -1.3% YoY

April 10 EU Commission data: 2025 verified ETS emissions fell 1.3% year-over-year. Power -0.4%, shipping -3%, aviation slight uptick on traffic recovery.

Gulf Shutdowns Projected at 9.1 mb/d

Iraq, Saudi, Kuwait, UAE, Qatar, Bahrain posted 7.5 mb/d March shutdowns; April forecast extends to 9.1 mb/d.

Renewables at 49% Installed Capacity; 85.6% of New Builds

Global renewable energy capacity now represents 49% of all installed generation. In 2025, renewables comprised 85.6% of new generation additions. Solar 510 GW (74%); wind 159 GW.

U.S. Gulf Drilling ESA Exemption Approved

Trump administration panel cleared an Endangered Species Act exemption for expanded Gulf of Mexico oil and gas drilling.

Europe Extends Coal Plant Operations

One European parliament lower house voted to extend dormant coal plant lifespans, citing 'severe international energy crisis' rationale.

Hormuz April 11: Seventeen-Vessel Transit—Six-Week Peak

One Greek-flagged vessel followed by two Chinese supertankers laden with crude transited Hormuz on April 11, totaling seventeen passages (seven inbound, ten outbound)—the busiest discharge day in six weeks. U.S. Navy launched demining operations the same day.

Brent at $101.91, WTI at $92.96

Following ceasefire extension, Iran's claim of vessel seizure pushed Brent to $101.91 (+3%) and WTI to $92.96. April 11's supertanker transit provided transient price relief.

Solar+Wind Capacity Surpasses Fossil Fuel—IEA 2026 Report

Per the IEA's 'Electricity 2026,' global solar+wind combined capacity is reaching 4,000 GW in 2026, surpassing coal+gas operating capacity for the first time (though output remains lower due to capacity factor differences).

U.S. Solar Utility Capacity Up 34.5% in 2025

EIA data shows U.S. utility-scale solar generation rose 34.5% in 2025. For 2026, 100% of new utility capacity additions are renewables and battery storage (zero new nuclear).

Ukraine Easter Ceasefire: Russia Declares 32-Hour Truce

Putin declared a 32-hour Orthodox Easter ceasefire on April 10. Kyiv expressed skepticism but acknowledged possible tactical air and shipping risk mitigation. Immediate violation allegations emerged from Novokakhovka.

Brent $97.78; previous day +$4.02

Saudi strike plus Hormuz toll double shock. EIA: April Hormuz throughput 3.8 million b/d versus February 20 million b/d cliff drop.

Saudi 600,000 b/d and 700,000 b/d pipeline offline

Manifa 300,000, Khurais 300,000 b/d lost. Ras Tanura, Jubail, Yanbu refinery fire impact.

Meta reserves 1GW orbital solar capacity

AI data center power anchor. Big Tech first commercial space solar contract.

IRENA publishes 24/7 renewables cost report

Firm solar and wind economics analyzed. Technology maturity, cost decline, commercial demand expansion mapped.

India solar reaches 28.4% cumulative installed capacity share

March baseline: 55% of renewable generation. Emerging-market solar expansion velocity crystallizes.

Brent spot $124.68 vs June $94.75

Even with ceasefire, concern over 13 million barrels per day lost, plus shipping and insurance costs, keeps the contango at $30.

Hormuz: only two vessels passed post-ceasefire before re-closure

IRGC announced April 9 closure, halting 20% of global LNG flow again.

EIA: 99% of 2026 new power is solar, wind, or storage

Solar adds 42,628.6 MW (share 12.7% to 15.5%), wind adds 14,507.4 MW (13.1% to 13.6%).

Hawaii Kona storm brings month's rain in hours

Mount Waialeale records 14.80 inches; flood watch spans four islands. About 290 National Guard deployed.

IEA Oil Market Report April 2026 published

Iran war impact review and global demand-supply rebalancing are core themes.

WTI Crashes to $95, Immediate Response to Ceasefire Announcement

Al Jazeera reported oil tumbled to $94 per barrel the day after the ceasefire, obliterating the $100 level.

World Bank Forecasts 2026 Energy Price Jump of 24%

The World Bank projected 2026 energy prices rising 24% versus 2022, the highest since Russia's Ukraine invasion, citing Middle East tensions as the driver.

EIA: Utility Solar Output to Rise 17% in 2026, 23% in 2027

The EIA projects utility-scale solar generation climbing 17% in 2026 and another 23% in 2027, leading growth across power supply.

China's Solar, Battery, EV Exports All Hit March Records

CNN reported China's solar, battery, and EV exports all posted record highs in March, with Hormuz turbulence accelerating clean-tech adoption.

ADNOC: Hormuz Still Blocked Despite Ceasefire

Wikipedia noted ADNOC CEO Sultan Al Jaber announced April 9 that Iran was conditioning transit and tightening restrictions, leaving Hormuz effectively closed.

EIA: April global shutdown peaks at 9.1 million b/d

Rises from 7.5 million in March. Hormuz closure primary variable.

Brent near $128 April 2; March average $103

$32 jump month-over-month. Goldman eyes $100+ scenario if additional month-long closure occurs.

South Korea accelerates 'fundamental energy transition'

Energy minister delays coal-plant closure near-term; restarts nuclear. Mid-term: 100 GW renewables target reconfirmed.

EIA: Summer 2026 solar generation +17% year-over-year

Summer solar up 17%; wind growth slower on annual basis. Solar-plus-storage shores up peak demand.

Amazon, Google, Oracle team on SMR for AI data-center power

Big Tech and utilities consortium supplies next-gen SMR energy. AI grid strain drives nuclear revival.

Global crude supply crashed to 97 million barrels daily in March, down 10.1 million

IEA April Oil Market Report: global crude supply fell to 97 million barrels daily in March, a 10.1 million barrel drop. GCC six shutins are expected to widen to 9.1 million barrels in April.

EIA projects April US gasoline peak at $4.30, diesel over $5.80

EIA's April STEO forecasts US gasoline monthly average of $4.30/gallon with diesel exceeding $5.80—marking April as the peak price month.

South Korea targets 100 GW renewables as energy transition accelerates

South Korea's Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy designated the Iran conflict a catalyst for "fundamental energy transition," committing to 100 GW renewable capacity centered on wind and solar.

EU 27 members agree to 81.2 GW nuclear capacity by 2040

EU member states committed to expanding nuclear capacity to 81.2 GW by 2040. Belgium reversed phase-out plans, Italy lifted its ban, and Germany reclassified nuclear as "green energy."

Physical oil approaches $150/barrel amid futures-spot spread; diesel hits record

Physical crude widened toward $150/barrel while futures diverged lower. Singapore middle distillate exceeded $290/barrel, marking an all-time high.

IEA Oil Market Report April 2026

The IEA's April brief registered March's global crude supply plummeting by a record 10.1mb/d to 97mb/d. Hormuz throughput collapsed to 3.8mb/d from February's 20mb/d.

OPEC+ boosts output 206k barrels daily—second month running

April 5, OPEC+ voted to raise daily crude quota by 206,000 barrels to address infrastructure damage and shipping disruption—a second consecutive monthly increase.

EIA STEO: April gasoline average $4.30/gallon peak

The EIA's Short-Term Energy Outlook forecast April US gasoline averaging $4.30/gallon and diesel at $5.80. Henry Hub-Asia spread widened as US LNG ran near 18 bcf/d.

Bloomberg: oil-shock scenarios for extended Hormuz closure

Bloomberg charted crude outcomes if Hormuz shuts long-term—$126 Brent peak and LNG-shipping cost spike are the base case.

EnergyNow: 2026 'year of the glut'—five trends

EnergyNow tagged 2026 as 'the year of the glut,' citing data-center power (up 4% annually), electrification gains, and further cost declines in solar, wind, and battery tech.

Hormuz shipments crater from 20mb/d to 3.8mb/d baseline

IEA April analysis shows Hormuz closure reduced shipments to 3.8mb/d from typical 20mb/d+. Shutins in Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, UAE, Qatar, and Bahrain (750mb/d March, 910mb/d April) compounded the crunch.

EIA forecasts Brent $115 peak in Q2, gradual stabilization

EIA's April short-term outlook pegged March Brent at $103/barrel average and projected a $115 Q2 peak followed by stepped-down recovery as shutins ease. Refined products show steeper curves.

OPEC+ adds 188,000 bpd in May without UAE

OPEC+ decided on May 3 production boost of +188,000 bpd without UAE present. The conflict and UAE disagreements are reshaping group consensus.

Meta locks in 30GW clean-renewable + 7.7GW nuclear power

Meta in April announced grid, space solar, and long-duration storage partnerships totaling 30GW+ clean renewables, plus 7.7GW nuclear via Vistra, TerraPower, Oklo, and Constellation.

Ember 2026 Global Electricity Review: solar-wind surpass nuclear

Ember published its 2026 Global Electricity Review in April, flagging that combined solar-wind will outpace nuclear in 2026, with battery costs down 45% year-over-year.

US forecasts 86GW capacity adds in 2026; solar claims 51% of growth

EIA outlook: US adds 86GW generation in 2026—solar leads 51% (43.4GW, +60% YoY), battery 28% (24.3GW), wind 14% (11.8GW). Texas captures ~40% of solar slice.

CATL unveils next-gen Na-ion cell at Beijing energy summit

April 1: CATL showcases new sodium-ion cell at ESIE 2026 Beijing. Form factor matches 587Ah Li cells; 300Ah+ capacity, 97% efficiency, 15,000+ cycles, -40 to 70°C operating range. Commercial launch 2026.

California greenlights Soda Mountain solar-plus-storage megaproject

CEC approves $700M San Bernardino County solar-storage complex: 300MW PV plus 300MW/1,200MWh battery.

Brent crude holds $100+ as Iran war cuts Hormuz flow to 4% baseline

Iran conflict pushes Brent and WTI up ~60% since Feb 28. Goldman estimates Hormuz throughput collapsed to ~4% normal levels.

50% metals tariffs threaten green industry cost pass-through

April 2 steel, aluminum, copper tariff rollout risks hiking US wind tower, solar racking, grid material costs.

EIA: Hormuz strait closure cost 10M barrels daily in Q1—largest supply shock ever

EIA called the Hormuz de facto closure from Feb. 28 military action a record "supply shock" removing roughly 10 million daily barrels. The strait handles ~35% of seaborne crude.

World Bank: Middle East war drives largest four-year energy price spike

World Bank's April Commodity Markets Outlook pinpointed the Middle East conflict as the largest energy-price surge in four years.

U.S. adds record 86GW utility-scale generation in 2026; solar 51%, battery storage 28%

EIA forecast U.S. utilities will add 86GW of utility-scale generation in 2026 (all-time high): solar 51%, battery storage 28%, wind 14%.

U.S. solar additions set 2026 record: 43.4GW; Texas Tehuacana Creek 1 tops at 837MW

U.S. battery storage additions surge 60% to 24GW in 2026 vs. 2025 record 15GW

U.S. utilities plan 24GW of utility-scale battery storage in 2026, a 60% jump from 2025's record 15GW. Grid operators rely on batteries to absorb midday renewable surplus and supply evening/storm demand.

California battery storage delivers 12.3GW, supplies 42.8% of evening demand solo

Electrek reports California grid battery storage dispatched 12.3GW at 19:00 PDT on March 29, single-handedly covering 42.8% of state demand that hour.

EIA: 99% of 2026 new US generation capacity will be solar, wind, battery

EIA projects roughly 99% of new US generation capacity in 2026 will be solar, wind, or battery, totaling approximately 80GW.

Iran war lifts Brent to $80-82; US average gas tops $4

Yale Climate Connections reports Brent surged 10-13% to $80-82 as of early March; US average gasoline crossed $4 per gallon by month-end.

Kuwait International Airport fuel depot hit by Iranian drones

Wikipedia notes Iranian drones struck Farwaniya's Kuwait International Airport fuel depot on April 1, sparking major fires and extending Hormuz threat zone.