Emerging markets
Every item from Trenri daily that fell into Emerging markets, latest first.
May 2026 ยท 55
Rupiah hits record low, breaking 17,500 per dollar
USD/IDR rose 0.55% to 17,516.80 on May 12, marking a new low for the rupiah. With the currency down 2.25% over one month and 5.47% over one year, markets are questioning Bank Indonesia's defense capacity and pricing a possible rate hike from 4.75% to 5.00% in May or June.
Turkish lira hits another record low at 45.4 per dollar
USD/TRY rose 0.14% to 45.3999 on May 12, setting another record low for the lira. The currency is down 1.65% over one month and 17.09% over one year, extending a gradual depreciation trend as Turkey's central bank tries to manage the pace through FX intervention.
MSCI EM index +7% YTD, led by technology
After a 34% return in 2025, the MSCI EM index is up 7% YTD in 2026. TSMC now exceeds a 12% weight and technology tops 30%, approaching S&P 500-like sector exposure. Consensus EPS growth stands at 17%, above developed-market peers.
Argentina prepares return to international bond markets after eight years
With more than $10B in external debt repayments due in the first half of 2026, Argentina is looking to return to international bond markets around midyear if yields compress further. A single January maturity alone totals $4B, making restored fiscal credibility the key condition for market access.
Brazil debt nears 80% of GDP ahead of October election
Brazil's public debt is approaching 80% of GDP ahead of an October election polarized between Lula and Bolsonaro camps, intensifying fiscal concerns. Mexico's post-2024 Sheinbaum playbook of revenue expansion and spending restraint is being discussed as a benchmark for the next governments in Brazil and Colombia.
Rupee breaks 95, RBI steps in
USD/INR hit 95.09 on May 11, a record low. The RBI deployed direct dollar sales via state banks, capped NOP limits at $100 million, and restricted NDF trading. PM Modi urged citizens to cut gold and foreign travel.
Sensex drops 1.19% on capital outflow fears
The BSE Sensex fell 917.67 points (1.19%) to 76,410.52 on May 11 as oil-driven growth fears weighed. Foreign investors continue exiting Indian equities, extending a 2025 trend.
Turkey CPI rebonds to 32.37%
Turkey's April annual CPI jumped to 32.37% from 30.87% in March, beating the 31.25% forecast and hitting its highest since October. Housing and utilities surged 46.6%; transport jumped 35.06%. The TCMB holds rates at 37%.
Brazil's Selic at 14.50%, cautious easing
Brazil's central bank cut its benchmark Selic rate from 14.75% to 14.50% on April 29. After holding at 15% through January, it has cut 50 basis points through March and April, even as geopolitical and external risks mount.
Banxico cuts to 6.50%, peso strengthens
Mexico's central bank cut rates to 6.50% on May 7. The peso rallied 0.76% the same day to 17.23 per dollar. The IMF warned in its April GFSR that commodity importers and vulnerable emerging markets face differential pressure from Middle East energy shocks.
ASEAN Summit Closes in Cebu; Mediation on Cambodia-Thailand Border Dispute
The 48th ASEAN summit (May 6โ8) presided over by Philippine President Marcos saw meetings between Cambodian and Thai PMs, with agreement on permanent diplomatic channels.
India-Vietnam Upgraded to Comprehensive Strategic Partnership with $25B Trade Target by 2030
During Vietnam's State President's May 5โ7 visit to India, 13 agreements were signed. Q1 bilateral trade rose 28% year-over-year to $4.8 billion.
Macron to Host 'Africa Forward' Summit in Nairobi May 11โ12
A summit with 20+ African leaders confirmed, including Senegal's and DRC's presidents, with Nigeria's Dangote confirmed as business representative.
South Africa Xenophobia Videos Spark Diplomatic Pressure from Nigeria and Kenya
Nigeria prepared voluntary repatriation flights while Kenya joined in demanding protection for nationals. South Africa denied videos were genuine.
Indonesia Targets 2027 GDP Growth of 5.9โ7.5%
Announced May 7 in the government's 2027 work plan. Indonesia has 1,200 active fintech companies and is piloting digital rupiah (Project Garuda).
UPI Processes 22.35B April Transactions, 29.03 Lakh Crore Rupees; YoY +25%
According to NPCI data, April UPI transactions reached 22.35 billion units totaling 29.03 lakh crore rupees, representing 25% and 21% YoY growth respectively. Daily average volume reached 745 million, up from 730 million in March. UPI accounts for 85% of India's digital payments market.
Skyroot Aerospace Secures $60M Series C; India's First Space-Tech Unicorn
Led by Sherpalo, GIC, and BlackRock, Skyroot raised $60 million, achieving a $1.1 billion valuation. Cumulative capital raised totals $160 million with the Vikram-1 inaugural orbital launch imminent.
RBI Maintains Repo Rate at 5.25%; FY27 CPI Inflation Projected at 4.6%
On 4/8, the RBI Monetary Policy Committee unanimously held the repo rate at 5.25%, maintaining a neutral stance for the third consecutive meeting. FY27 CPI inflation is projected at 4.6%, with a peak of 5.2% in Q3. Growth outlook downgraded from 7.4% to 6.9%.
Snabbit Closes $56M Series D; Korea's Mirae Asset Co-Leads
Indian on-demand home services platform Snabbit closed a $56 million Series D on 5/7, co-led by Susquehanna, Mirae Asset, and Bertelsmann. This signals expanding Korean capital participation in India's consumer technology sector.
Pronto Quick Commerce Close $45M Series B at Doubled Valuation
Quick commerce player Pronto completed a $45 million Series B on 5/7 at a doubled valuation, marking headlines in India's funding roundup.
Kenya's Torrential Rains Trigger Flooding; Over 100 Deaths Reported
Weeks of heavy rainfall have claimed over 100 lives in Kenya, with thousands displaced. Additional precipitation warnings raise concerns of further devastation.
IMF: Emerging Markets to Grow 3.9% in 2026 vs. 1.4% for Developed Economies
The International Monetary Fund projects emerging markets will expand at 2.5 times the rate of advanced economies, driven by India's 6.4% forecast and momentum in Brazil. However, Strait of Hormuz risks remain a headwind for emerging market currencies and equities.
India to Host Fourth India-Africa Forum Summit on May 31
Under the 'IA SPIRIT' theme emphasizing innovation, resilience, and inclusive growth, the summit will deepen Global South cooperation.
North Korea Holds 11th Youth League Congress; Mobilizes Youth Labor Force
The Socialist Patriotic Youth League convened April 28โ30 to amend its charter and elect new leadership, with emphasis on mobilizing youth labor for core economic initiatives.
China Q1 Exports Surge 14% But U.S.-Bound Shipments Decline 16%
China's first-quarter exports totaled $97.76 billion, posting double-digit growth. However, exports to the U.S. contracted 16% as China expands market share in emerging economies.
India GDP Projected to Grow 6.4% in 2026
Growth moderates from 2025's 7% range but remains among the global leaders. Tax and labor reforms support potential growth.
Brazil Slows Below 2% in Election Year; Income Tax Cuts Provide Buffer
Tight liquidity from elevated rates offset by large-scale income tax relief expected to support household consumption. 2026 presidential election presents a variable.
BYD Captures Brazil Market Leadership Position
BYD has become the first Chinese brand to claim the top spot in Brazil's overall vehicle sales, surpassing Volkswagen, GM, and Hyundai last month.
South Africa Approaches Investment Grade Recovery; Commodity Tailwinds Ease Fiscal Pressures
Rising commodity prices and improved power generation have boosted fiscal credibility, bringing an investment-grade recovery scenario within reach in coming years.
Emerging Market Growth Seen at Roughly Three Times Developed Markets
IMF and private sector consensus: 2026 EM growth expected to be approximately three times that of DM. India, ASEAN, and reform-oriented Latin America leading growth.
Moody's rates India as 'most resilient among emerging markets'
Analysis shows India has navigated all four major shocksโpandemic, 2022 inflation, 2023 banking crisis, and 2025 tariffsโwith superior performance.
India's GDP growth projected at 6.4% in 2026
Moderating from 7% levels in 2025, but maintaining global leadership.
BJP's first rule in West Bengal expands eastern foothold
End of TMC's 15-year governance expands Modi's BJP hegemonic power.
Brazil's growth rate moderates below 2%
Election-year fiscal normalization, though iron ore and agricultural exports drive trade balance.
2026 EM equity EPS growth consensus at 17%
Growth projected to be approximately three times faster than developed markets, attracting capital inflows.
IMF Projects 2026 Emerging Market Growth at 3.9%
The IMF World Economic Outlook raises emerging market growth projections to 3.9% in 2026 from 3.7% in 2025, with Southeast Asian and Middle Eastern expansion offsetting slowdowns in Latin America and Eastern Europe.
India's Growth Moderates to 6.4% from 7%-Plus Trajectory
India's GDP growth is forecast to decelerate from above 7% in 2025 to 6.4% in 2026, yet the country remains among the world's fastest-growing economies.
Brazil's Growth to Slip Below 2% Amid Electoral Cycle Pressures
Brazil is projected to grow below 2% in 2026 as financial conditions normalize and the presidential electoral cycle takes its toll, though large-scale income tax reductions may provide some offset.
Sub-Saharan Africa on Recovery Path to 4.3% Growth by 2027
Sub-Saharan Africa is forecast to grow 3.7% in 2025 and accelerate to 4.3% in 2027, supported by easing inflation, currency stabilization, and recovering consumption.
South Africa Shows Recovery Signals Amid Commodity and Infrastructure Relief
South Africa is positioning for recovery as rising mineral prices, alleviating electricity and logistics bottlenecks, and improving fiscal management converge.
Nigeria's Oil Producers Capture $4B Windfall
Brent Light crude surged from $70.14 to an average of $116.84โa 66% increase post-Iran conflictโdelivering approximately $4 billion in additional revenue to Nigerian oil companies.
MTN Reports Record Nigeria Results
Telecom operator MTN posted its strongest results in decades, driven by Nigeria's strong operational performance. CEO Ralph Mupita received record compensation.
South African Anti-Immigrant Violence Raises Regional Alarm
UBA Chairman Tony Elumelu publicly called for Nigerian government intervention following anti-immigrant violence in South Africa, expressing concern for Nigerian nationals residing there.
Moody's Rates India as Most Resilient Emerging Market
Moody's designated India as the most resilient emerging market amid global turbulence, citing its monetary policy framework as a key strength. 2026 GDP growth projected at 6.4%.
UAE Officially Exits OPEC at End of April
The UAE's departure from OPEC quotas opens pathways for expanded U.S.-UAE energy cooperation and represents a significant blow to the cartel's leverage.
Indonesia Q1 GDP +5.61% Year-over-Year; Exceeds Market Expectations
Growth exceeded consensus of 5.3%, marking the highest level since Q3 2022. Accommodation and food services grew 13.14%, retail 6.26%, construction 5.49%.
Sub-Saharan Africa Projected to Outpace Asian Growth in 2026
Per IMF projections, Sub-Saharan Africa is set to surpass Asia for the first time. Six of the world's top ten highest-growth nations are in Africa.
S&P Projects Sub-Saharan Africa 4.5% Mid-Range Growth for 2026-2028
This represents the highest rate among emerging markets, though tariffs, geopolitical fragmentation, and security threats pose risks.
ASEAN-6 GDP Growth Ranges 4.3%-7.1%; Global Capital Reallocation Evident
Cambodia, Vietnam, Indonesia, the Philippines, Laos, and Malaysia benefit from supply chain diversification, a key advantage highlighted by analysts.
Indonesian Rupiah Breaches 17,400 Level; Exposed to Oil Price Shocks
Initial fiscal assumptions pegged oil at $70 per barrel; prices now exceed $100, creating simultaneous currency and fiscal pressure.
IMF Lowers 2026 Emerging Market Growth Forecast to 3.9%
Down from January's 4.2% projection. Inflation pressures concentrate among raw material importers, with sub-Saharan Africa and Asian manufacturing PMIs hovering near the 50-level boundary.
Sub-Saharan Africa Growth Outlook Maintained at +3.7%
South Africa forecasted at a weakened 1.0%, while MENA food and energy importers face 4.2% downward pressure.
India Projected at +6.7% (Fiscal Year) and +6.4% (Calendar Year)
Per April IMF World Economic Outlook, growth forecasts remain consistent at 6.4% for both 2025 and 2026. Food and infrastructure inflation impacts remain contained.
Blinkit Achieves First Quarterly EBITDA Profitability
India's 10-minute quick-commerce platform Blinkit reported its inaugural quarter of EBITDA profitability, while core meal delivery demonstrated order volume recovery.
Manila May Day Demonstration Escalates at US Embassy
Kilusang Mayo Uno-organized labor protests saw demonstrators attempt to breach the US Embassy, with seven police officers sustaining injuries.
April 2026 ยท 149
Sub-Saharan Africa Poised to Exceed Asia's Growth for First Time in 2026
IMF estimates Sub-Saharan Africa will outpace Asia's growth rate in 2026 for the first time. Six of the decade's ten fastest-growing economies are African.
Southeast Asia Six-Nation Bloc Posts 4.3โ7.1% Growth, Supply Chain Diversification Benefits
Milken Institute Global Opportunity Index 2026 projects Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Philippines, and Vietnam at 2024 real GDP growth of 4.3โ7.1%. Geopolitical competition drives supply chain fragmentation and capital inflow.
South Asia Growth Projected to Decelerate to 6.3%
World Bank South Asia Economic Update (April 2026) downgrades 2026 growth from 7.0% to 6.3%, citing global energy market disruptions.
ADB Downgrades Asia-Pacific Growth to 4.7% Amid Middle East Crisis
ADB issued special update April 29 lowering Asia-Pacific growth from 5.1% to 4.7% due to prolonged Middle East tensions. India's growth adjusted down 0.6pp to 6.3%.
Lagos IoT West Africa and DC Cloud Expo Africa Convene April 28โ30
IoT West Africa and Data Center Cloud Expo Africa held simultaneously at Landmark Centre, Lagos, April 28โ30. Flagship platform for African digital transformation.
IMF Lowers 2026 Global Growth Forecast to 3.1%
The IMF projects 3.1% growth for 2026 and 3.2% for 2027, a downward revision. Inflation pressures and slowdown risks are concentrated in emerging and developing economies.
India Maintains 6.7% Growth Outlook Despite Global Slowdown
The IMF projects India at 6.4% for both 2025 and 2026. By fiscal year basis, India is tracking 6.7% growth, securing relative resilience during the global slowdown.
Sub-Saharan Africa Poised for 4.2% Growth in 2026-2027
Despite an 16-28% reduction in aid flows, sub-Saharan Africa is expected to recover to an average 4.2% growth rate in 2026-2027. However, debt crisis risks persist among aid-dependent nations.
Brazil's Growth Rate Forecast Dips Below 2%
Electoral cycle dynamics and normalizing financial conditions are moderating Brazil's growth. S&P Global warned emerging markets face re-emerging inflation risks.
India's GLP-1 Generic Flood Erodes Eli Lilly's Market Share
As generic weight-loss drugs flood India's market, Eli Lilly's market share is eroding. Novo Nordisk has fared relatively better in defending its position.
Sudan Humanitarian Crisis Affects 65% of Populationโ34 Million โ FAO April
El-Fasher (North Darfur) and Kadugli famine confirmed; 20 additional districts in Darfur and Kordofan at risk. 4.2 million children and pregnant women need nutrition therapy.
Gaza Deir al-Balah First Local Elections โ Abbas-Aligned Secure 6 of 15 Seats
First Gaza elections since 2006. Pilot scope covered single city; Gaza turnout 23%, West Bank 56%. Hamas-linked slate captured only 2 seats.
Vietnam GDP 7.2% โ ADB Projects 2026 ASEAN Leadership
Vietnam achieved 8% growth in 2025; ADB forecasts 7.2% for 2026. IMF raised Indonesia estimate to 5.1%; World Bank adjusted to 4.7% (down 0.1 percentage point).
Sub-Saharan Africa 4.1% โ 2026 Global Growth Leader
Robeco analysis (4/28): Nigeria and Ghana emerge as emerging market picks via reform and commodity acceleration. Broader emerging market region holds ~4%.
Tehran-Moscow Air Route Resumes 4/28 โ Mahan Air, Two-Month Gap
Iran-Russia flights restart on day 60 of conflict. Simultaneously, Iran proposed nuclear talks delay in exchange for Hormuz releaseโTrump declined.
EM ETF Up 9% Year-to-Date
Broad-based emerging market ETFs rose 9% through April 27, recording four times the capital inflows of U.S. equities.
China Industrial Profits Up 15.8% in March
China's March industrial profits rose 15.8% year-over-year, demonstrating manufacturing resilience amid global oil shocks.
IMF Highlights Upside Risks for India and Brazil
The April IMF World Economic Outlook identifies India and Brazil as emerging market peers with significant upside GDP risks, suggesting potential for additional central bank easing.
Dubai Fintech Comfi Closes $65 Million Pre-Series A
Dubai-based B2B fintech Comfi closed a $65 million pre-Series A round on April 27, led by Iliad Partners with participation from Yangu and Low Ventures.
Africa, South Asia PMI Below 50; ASEAN Upside Potential
Triodos reports April PMI weakness in parts of Africa and Asia, but emphasizes East Africa and ASEAN's resource and consumption growth potential.
Sub-Saharan Africa Outgrows Asia for the First Time
According to the IMF, Sub-Saharan Africa is projected to exceed Asian growth rates in 2026 for the first time. Six of the world's 10 highest-growth economies are African nations.
MSCI EM Index Up 14.5%; AI-Driven Emerging Market Rally
Emerging market equities rose 14.5% by the MSCI EM Index standard in USD. Asian AI-driven growth has led the momentum, with South Africa spearheading the EM rebound.
XTransfer Q1 EM Inbound Cross-Border Payments Up 45%; Africa Up 115%
Asia, Africa, and Latin America accounted for 73% of XTransfer's Q1 inbound cross-border payments (YoY +45%). Africa surged 115%, Latin America 97%, and Southeast Asia 18%.
India Poised to Surpass Japan as World's 4th Largest Economy
The IMF projects India will surpass Japan in 2026 to become the world's fourth-largest economy, with 6.16% growth. Indonesia is projected at 5.0%, Brazil at 2.0%.
Microsoft and Google Expand Digital Infrastructure in Africa
Microsoft and Google are increasing digital infrastructure investment in Africa, with Africa-focused tech funds such as Norrsken22, valued at $200 million, supporting startups.
India FY27 Growth Forecast at 6.6% โ Still the Fastest Growing Major Economy
EU FTA and domestic consumption remain steady, though Middle East energy shock moderates growth.
South Asia 2026 Growth at 6.3% โ Down from Last Year's 7%
Energy market disruption and supply chain bottlenecks slow the entire region's growth.
Sub-Saharan Africa 2027 Growth Forecast at 4.3% Recovery
Disinflation, currency stabilization, and expanding consumption drive recovery.
Southeast Asia Digital Economy GMV at $263 Billion
Year-over-year growth of 15%; digital commerce revenue up 14% to $89 billion.
Mexico 2026 Growth Forecast Rebounds to 1.5%
US supply chain reconfiguration and USMCA renegotiation provide momentum; US exports reach $503.2 billion.
IMF Lowers Emerging Market Growth to 3.9%
Downward revision from 4.2% (January) to 3.9% (April). Inflation pressures concentrated in EM economies.
Eternal (ZomatoยทBlinkit) Net Profit Surges 346%
Q4 revenue +64%; Blinkit achieves first EBITDA profitability.
Sub-Saharan Africa Set for 4.3% Growth in 2027
Gold rally bolsters South African mining equities; recovery from 3.7% (2025).
Nigeria Seeks $516M Deutsche Bank Loan
President Tinubu requesting Senate approval for infrastructure financingโSokoto-Badagry highway project.
AfDB-India Fourth Summit Set for May 31
New Delhi to host discussions on digital infrastructure, industrialization, and financial cooperation.
Egypt's March Inflation Accelerates to 15.2%
Egypt's CPI, which stood at 11.9% in January, rose to 15.2% in March following fuel price increases, signaling visible economic impact from Suez Canal dependence.
Nigeria's March CPI Rises to 15.4%, Ending 11-Month Disinflation Trend
Nigeria's inflation rebounded to 15.4% in March, breaking an 11-month disinflationary streak as subsidy and exchange rate reform benefits diminish.
IMF Projects India's 2026 GDP Growth at 6.4%
The IMF forecasts India's growth at 6.4% for both 2025 and 2026, maintaining the highest growth rates globally despite a moderation from 7% levels.
East Africa Projected to Achieve 6.1% Growth in 2026
East Africa is expected to accelerate from 5.3% growth in 2025 to 6.1% in 2026, the highest growth rate on the continent.
BYD Becomes #1 in Brazil, Surpassing Volkswagen, GM, and Hyundai
BYD sold 14,911 vehicles in Brazil in April, becoming the first Chinese brand to achieve top ranking across all vehicle categories.
Africa April Funding Hits 13-Month Low of $110 Million
Deal count recovers while capital remains depressed; fintech focuses on Lucky ($23M) and MNT-Halan ($41.3M).
Egyptian Fintech INVIA Raises $1.2 Million Seed
B2B fintech funding round signals renewed momentum for Cairo startups.
India GDP Forecast at 6.4%; Blinkit EBITDA Turns Positive
Zomato subsidiary achieves first EBITDA profit; core food delivery shows recovery.
Brazilian Airfares Jump 31% from March to April
LATAM, GOL, and Azul all rise; Hormuz fuel spike drives inflation.
Sub-Saharan Africa Projected 3.7% Growth in 2026
South Africa and Egypt emerge as rate-cut candidates; bond carry appeal recovers.
Reliance FY26 revenue hits 11.7 trillion rupees; EBITDA grows 13.5%
Q4 revenue increased 12.86% to 2.986 trillion rupees; digital subscribers grew 16% and 5G users surged 40%. However, Q4 PAT declined 12.55%.
Eternal (Zomato/Blinkit) Q4: net profit soars 346%; revenue up 64%
Ultra-fast e-commerce platform Blinkit achieved its first EBITDA-positive quarter, serving as a key April driver for India's emerging market performance. The Emerging Market ETF posted 9% YTD gains through April 27.
World Bank cuts Southeast Asia 2026 growth forecast to 4.2%
Vietnam: 6.3% (down from 8% prior year); Thailand: 1.3% (down from 2.4%); Indonesia: 4.7%; Malaysia: 4.4%. Middle East energy supply shocks combined with Trump tariffs are headwinds.
ASEAN+3 projected to grow 4.0% in 2026 amid elevated external uncertainty
The ASEAN Regional Macroeconomic Surveillance Office forecasts ASEAN+3 growth of 4.0%. Southeast Asian inflation is expected to accelerate from 2.3% in 2025 to 3.2% in 2026, supported by strong domestic demand.
South Africa and Nigeria signal emerging market recovery
South Africa benefits from rising mineral prices and easing power and logistics bottlenecks. Nigeria, Ghana, and Zambia are seeing macro stabilization improvements.
EM ETF Up 9% YTD, Outpacing S&P and Russell 3000
An ETF tracking 2,983 holdings across 30 emerging markets rose 9% through April 27, surpassing broad U.S. indices.
India GDP Forecast Cut to 6.4%; Brazil Slips Below 2%
The IMF's April World Economic Outlook downgraded India from 7% to 6.4% growth and Brazil below 2%, citing electoral uncertainty.
Middle East Crisis Shaves 0.2% off African Growth
A joint AU-AfDB-UNECA-UNDP policy document (April 15) estimates the Middle East conflict could trim African growth by up to 20 basis points.
Nigeria's IMF Growth Forecast Revised to 4.1%; Egypt to 4.2%
Nigeria faces a 30-basis-point downgrade; Egypt, heavily exposed as an energy importer, is cut 50 basis points.
BofA: International Equities See 4x More Inflows Than U.S. Stocks
Soft dollar conditions, accommodative monetary policy, and infrastructure investment are redirecting capital toward EM and developed non-U.S. equities, BofA Research notes.
India and South Korea Agree to Double Bilateral Trade by 2030
President Lee and Prime Minister Modi agreed April 19 to approximately double bilateral trade by 2030, emphasizing Indo-Pacific supply-chain resilience and cooperation in shipbuilding and semiconductors.
Bank Indonesia Expected to Hold Rates at 4.75%โRupiah Down 3% Year-to-Date
A Reuters poll of 31 economists forecasts Bank Indonesia will hold its policy rate at 4.75% at its April meeting, with March CPI at 3.48% approaching the upper bound of the 1.5-3.5% target. The rupiah has depreciated roughly 3% since year-start amid capital-flight pressures.
Kenya's Diesel Price Shock Strains Fiscal Balance as 90-day Relief Enacted
With diesel prices spiking 24% to $1.60 per liter, the government moved in mid-April to suspend fuel tax for 90 days, straining fiscal equilibrium and amplifying pre-2027 election budget pressures.
Nigeria Emerges as Clear Iran-War Beneficiary; Export Revenue Rises
Al Jazeera analysis identifies Nigeria, Africa's largest crude producer, as a clear beneficiary of elevated oil prices, with export earnings climbing. East Africa's overall growth forecast stands at 5.8%, the region's 2026 high.
IMF April WEO: India Growth Moderates to 6.4% in 2026 But Remains EM Frontrunner
The IMF's April World Economic Outlook projects India's GDP growth decelerating from 7% in 2025 to 6.4% in 2026, though still commanding the emerging-market top tier. Indonesia and Brazil are both maintaining growth-friendly policy stances.
World Bank: South Asia Growth Slows to 6.3%โDown from 7%
Global energy market disruption cuts South Asia's 2026 forecast to 6.3%. While industrial policy frequency is double peers', import restrictions compound headwinds.
ECLAC: LATAM Growth at 2.1โ2.2%โInvestment Languishes
ECLAC and World Bank revised LATAM to 2.1โ2.2% growth. Brazil and Mexico face austerity, though Paraguay and Argentina show relative strength.
Africa Projected 4.0% GrowthโDebt at 63% of GDP
UN OSAA forecasts Africa at 4.0% in 2026. Average public debt reaches 63% of GDP, with interest absorbing 15% of revenues. About 40% of countries face debt distress.
Milken: Capital Returning to Six Southeast Asian Growth Markets
Milken's 2026 Global Opportunity Index flags Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Philippines, and Vietnam as top-tier growth destinations.
Nubank Reaches 127 Million CustomersโLATAM Digital Finance Leader
Nubank expands from Brazil into Mexico and Colombia, hitting 127 million users. EMQQ's April report highlights Nubank as emblematic of LATAM fintech strength.
IMF cuts 2026 emerging-market growth to 3.9% from January's 4.2%
Energy and currency volatility from the Iran conflict weigh on developing commodity importers. India is forecast at 6.5% for both FY2026 and FY2027.
Sub-Saharan Africa slows to 4.3% from 4.5%
The IMF's April 16 regional report warns that a 20% food price increase could push an additional 20 million into food insecurity. The Fund approved a $266 million package for Liberia.
Eternal (Zomato and Blinkit) Q4 net income surges 346%
Indian big-tech player Eternal posted Q4 net income up 346% year-over-year and revenue up 64%. Despite broader equity weakness, quick commerce remains a singular growth driver.
Africa Finance Corporation borrows $100 million from India's EXIM bank
The AFC secured $100 million from India's EXIM bank for infrastructure investment, marking a milestone in South-South cooperation.
Latin America enters gigawatt-scale data-center era amid USMCA uncertainty
Brazil crossed 1 GW of IT data-center capacity, widening its gap with Mexico and Chile. Mexico faces heightened external volatility amid Washington trade tensions.
Hungary's Magyar Tisza Party Wins Landslide, Ending Orbรกn's 16-Year Rule
In April 12 elections, Pรฉter Magyar's Tisza Party secured 141 of 199 seats with 53.6% of the vote. Orbรกn's Fidesz captured just 55 seats, surrendering the supermajority needed for constitutional amendments.
IMF: Sub-Saharan Africa Set for 4.3% Growth but 5% Year-End Inflation
The IMF's Regional Economic Outlook report projects 4.3% growth for sub-Saharan Africa in 2026 but warns that Middle East shocks will drive fuel and fertilizer costs higher, pushing year-end inflation to 5%.
India Maintains Fastest Growth at 7.6%, Outpacing Peers
The World Bank reports India's FY26 GDP growth accelerated to 7.6% from FY25's 7.1%. Though FY27 growth is projected to moderate to 6.6%, India remains the fastest-growing major economy.
Latin America Slowing but Andean Bonds Find Strength
CreditSights notes that Latin America faces wage, interest, and political headwinds, but Brazil's currency and real rates have anchored Q1 emerging market bond gains. Peru and Chile are emerging as credit favorites.
Africa's FDI Surges 75% to Capture 6% of Global Flows
African FDI jumped 75% in 2024 to $97 billion, lifting the continent's share of global inflows from 4% to 6%, per IMF and OMFIF analysis.
IMF Cuts Emerging Markets Growth to 3.9% for 2026
In its April 14 World Economic Outlook, the IMF revised emerging markets growth from 4.2% (January forecast) to 3.9%. Global growth forecasted at 3.1%. The agency warns of heightened exposure to energy and currency volatility.
Indian Rupee Hits Record Low; Inflation Dominates Kerala Elections
The Indian rupee reached all-time lows following oil price spikes from the Iran conflict. In Kerala's April 9 state elections, inflation emerged as the dominant issue, surpassing unemployment and development concerns. The government warned of slowing consumer demand.
Kenya Projects 5.3% GDP Growth for 2026
Kenya's 2026 GDP growth is forecast at 5.3%, up from 4.7% in 2024, driven by agriculture, tourism, and financial services. Nigeria maintains its position as Africa's third-largest economy with projected GDP growing 30% to approximately $380 billion.
Vietnam Accelerates Role as Electronics Manufacturing Hub
Global tech giants' production shifts are complete, solidifying Vietnam's status. Despite single-party governance, the state's political flexibility in foreign investment and U.S.-China alignment provides strategic advantage. 2026 growth momentum remains solid.
Mexico's 2026 Growth Upgraded to 1.5% from 1.0%
The IMF raised Mexico's 2026 growth outlook to 1.5% from 1.0%. USMCA renegotiation approval is now visible, likely to provide additional momentum. Across Latin America, high-real-rate economies including Brazil are candidate rate-cutters.
IMF Downgrades: Emerging Markets 3.9%, Developed Economies 1.4%
On April 14, the IMF set EM growth at 3.9% and DM growth at 1.4%, widening the gap. India's FY26 forecast stands at 6.4%, Indonesia 5.1%, Vietnam 6.5%.
Nigeria's Public Debt Balloons by โฆ5.98 Trillion
The Debt Management Office reported on April 14 that total debt rose from โฆ153.29 trillion in September 2025 to โฆ159.27 trillion (up 3.9%). Bonny Light crude soared from $70.14 to $116.84 per barrelโa 66% jumpโlifting both fiscal pressure and oil-exporting revenue.
Vietnam Welcomes 2.03M Foreign Visitors in April
Vietnam received 2.03 million foreign arrivals in April alone, bringing the four-month total to 8 million and accelerating tourism-led recovery.
Peru Holds Historic Primary Election Round
Peru conducted its most crowded presidential and congressional primary vote on April 12, marking the opening salvo of Latin America's electoral supercycle.
Vietnam Signals Closer Alignment With Chinese Governance Model
Mid-April reports noted that Vietnam is converging toward China's model, driven by centralized power under Trong Lam and expanded security apparatus influence.
ADB forecasts Vietnam 7.2%: top ASEAN growth
Indonesia at 5.2%, Philippines 4.1% as slowdown spreads. Middle East conflict spells downside risk for Southeast Asia.
IMF cuts emerging-market 2026 growth to 3.9%
Down from 4.2% in Januaryโa 30 bps haircut. India 6.4%, Brazil under 2%, sub-Saharan Africa 3.7%.
Pope Leo XIV embarks on quad-nation Africa tour: Algeria, Cameroon, Angola, Equatorial Guinea
4/13โ23 schedule. First multi-country sub-Saharan Africa visit with 240 million Catholics in view.
Milei regional favorability 36.2%; Sheinbaum 69.8%
CB Global Data (4/13โ18, 40,528 respondents, 18 countries): Left-wing dominance reconfirmed across LatAm.
Bangladesh BNP lands unprecedented landslide, enters consolidation phase
Sole majority in February 13 election. Government pursues dual-track diplomacy with India and China through mid-April.
Kenya: Hormuz Dependency Exposed
Pre-election fiscal strain combined with Gulf energy reliance creates 'high exposure' risk. Diesel up 24%.
Nigeria Oil Windfall Expanding Capital
Elevated crude creates breathing room for Nigerian oil majors' capital raising, lifting Africa's #3 GDP by ~30%.
India: Trade Deficit and FDI Headwinds
Prolonged Iran war threatens FY27 current account deterioration. Twelve-month net FDI inflows hit record lows near $0.5B.
Brazil: Ibovespa Breaches All-Time High
April 14 intraday, Ibovespa cleared 199,354.81, surpassing the 2008 inflation-adjusted peak of 198,950.90. YTD gain: +23.3%.
East Africa on 5.8% Growth Track
Ethiopia and Kenya, powered by renewable energy and regional integration, are projected to accelerate East Africa's 2026 growth to 5.8% (vs. 5.4% in 2025).
IMF Forecasts Ethiopia's 2026 Growth at 9.2%โAfrica's Peak
Ethiopia has emerged as Africa's fastest-growing economy in the IMF's April WEO, driven by public investment, manufacturing expansion, mining, and post-Tigray conflict macroeconomic reforms.
India Boat Capsizes on Yamuna River, Ten Dead
On April 10, a boat overturned on the Yamuna River near Mathura in Uttar Pradesh, killing over ten. Safety regulation failures drew criticism.
Indonesia Negotiates One Million Tonnes of Fertilizer Exports
Indonesia's cabinet secretariat announced April-end negotiations to export one million tonnes of fertilizer to India, the Philippines, Thailand, and Brazil, alongside a separate Australian shipment of 250,000 tonnes.
BRICS NDB Approves Record $42.9 Billion Cumulatively
Under the expanded ten-member BRICS structure (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, UAE, Indonesia), the New Development Bank has approved 139 projects totaling $42.9 billion.
JNIM-ISSP Conflict Spreads to Nigeria and Niger
On April 4, JNIM militants attacked an ISSP-affiliated group in Nigeria's Kebbi State, killing one soldier, capturing another, and stealing 10 million naira ($7,000) plus three motorcycles. This marks the first spread of the Al-Qaeda/ISIS Sahel schism into Nigeria and Niger.
India April EV: passenger vehicles +75.14%, two-wheelers +60.73%
Tata Motors and TVS lead charge. Services PMI hits five-month highs on domestic demand and logistics expansion.
World Bank: India FY27 growth 6.6% as Middle East shocks settle
Mideast conflict energy ripples and supply chain pain reflected. FY26 pins at 7.6%, India still fastest-growing major economy.
Nigeria: Borno garrison overrun, 18 soldiers killed in joint Boko Haram-ISWAP assault
April 8-9 joint operation breaches Benisheikh stronghold. Sahel leadership battle shifts south as JNIM raids ISSP in Kebbi.
BRICS expands to 10, sets September 2026 New Delhi summit
Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa plus Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, UAE, Indonesia formally admitted. 32 nations await review.
BYD tops Brazil auto market in April, 14,900 units shipped
Overtakes VW, GM, Hyundaiโfirst Chinese brand to lead Brazilian car market overall. Emerging-market EV expansion accelerates.
World Bank projects India FY27 GDP growth at 6.6%
Middle East war-driven energy prices and supply-chain disruption shaped a modestly weaker outlook; FY26 finished at 7.6%.
FTSE keeps Indonesia on secondary emerging watch
On April 8, FTSE Russell excluded Indonesia from further downgrade consideration, contrasting with January's MSCI downgrade warning.
U.S. pulls some Nigeria embassy staff
Terror and Islamist militia threats expanded travel warnings; the first Al-Qaeda/ISIS Sahel clash was reported in Niger.
Chad's 1.3 million Sudanese refugees face food cutoff
Donor funding cuts have prompted UNHCR and WFP to warn of reduced food and water supplies.
Bengaluru fintech KreditBee closes $280M Series E at $1.5B
Motilal Oswal Alternates led the round, announced April 8.
World Bank Cuts Sub-Saharan Africa Growth Forecast by 0.3%, Warns on Inflation
The World Bank cut sub-Saharan Africa's growth rate by 0.3 percentage points versus October 2025 forecasts on April 8, warning inflation will rise to 4.8%.
Nigeria and South Africa Raise Fuel Prices Amid Middle East Shock
Both countries pushed through currency adjustments and subsidy cuts, then hiked domestic fuel prices in April to absorb Middle East oil-price shock.
India Rebounds on Rate Cuts and Infrastructure Acceleration
Ashmore noted that Indian banking-sector liquidity swung from negative in early 2025 to positive, and infrastructure investment acceleration poses upside risks.
Indonesia Pursues State-Owned Enterprise Capex Expansion to Boost Private Sentiment
Analysis suggests Indonesia can improve private investment appetite by rebuilding confidence in social safety nets and state-owned enterprise spending without widening fiscal deficits.
Brazil Enters Fiscal Expansion Cycle, Large Income Tax Cuts Offset Monetary Tightening
Brazil's government offset contractionary interest rates with substantial income tax relief, entering a fiscal expansion phase.
India maintains FY27 6.6% growth forecast; resilience intact
Bank lending up 16.1%; forex reserves hit record $700.95 billion. Digital and infrastructure investment drive growth through Middle East energy shock.
Brazil upgrades 2026 outlook to 1.9% on energy net export gains
Renewable-heavy mix yields asymmetric upside to oil shock. Fiscal stress and high rates persist.
Sub-Saharan inflation bounces to 5.0% from 3.4%
Oil, fertilizer, borrowing costs all rising together. Nigeria's 2026 growth outlook cut 0.3 point to 4.1%.
BYD tops Brazil in April with 14,911 units; beats VW, GM, Hyundai
First Chinese brand to lead Brazil's monthly auto sales. EV share realignment in emerging markets accelerates.
UNCTAD: Global trade growth continues but fragility rises
Iran war, tariffs, maritime blockades sharpen geopolitical sensitivity. April report flags trade momentum vulnerability.
IMF cuts sub-Saharan Africa growth forecast to 4.3 percent
The IMF lowered 2026 sub-Saharan growth by 30 basis points to 4.3 percent due to the US-Israel-Iran conflict. UNDP warned eight nations including Ethiopia, Egypt, and Nigeria face double-digit inflation risks.
Egypt imposes 9pm weekday closing; imports Libyan crude
Cairo mandates 9pm weekday and 10pm weekend closures to control energy costs while filling Kuwait's supply gap with minimum 1 million barrels monthly Libyan crude.
ISSP claims April 3 strike killed 35 JNIM fighters in Niger
ISSP stated April 6 that it struck a JNIM position in Tillabรฉri's Pรฉtรฉkou village on April 3, killing 35 and seizing 38 weapons and 10 motorcycles.
BRICS Pay launches 2026 with India RBI coordinating tech
BRICS will deploy BRICS Pay in 2026 with India's RBI handling technical coordination, targeting full operations at the September 12 New Delhi summit.
Twenty-nine African currencies weaken; South African rand slides 5 percent
Twenty-nine African currencies weakened against the dollar through early April, with the South African rand depreciating 5 percent.
IMF WEO April 2026: EM growth downgraded to 3.9%
The IMF's April World Economic Outlook cut emerging-market growth from January's 4.2% to 3.9%, with global growth pegged at 3.1%. The Middle East war is driving energy and currency shocks across developing economies.
Kenya reports sixteen citizens vanished into Russian military recruitment
Kenya's government disclosed sixteen nationals missing and 38 hospitalized in Russia after Russian intermediaries dangled $2,700-per-month contracts for Ukraine deployment.
Mediterranean migrant toll nears 990 in 2026; 180+ vanish near Easter
The IOM reported April 7 that Mediterranean deaths and disappearances reached roughly 990 this year, with 180+ added in ten days. A boat from Tajoura, Libya capsized April 5, leaving some 80 missing and 32 rescued.
Nigeria: militants hit Easter churches; 31 rescued, soldiers die
Armed groups attacked ECWA and St. Augustine Catholic churches in Kaduna on April 5. Military recovered 31 hostages after firefights; casualty tolls divergedโfive military and seven local officials reported dead. Kaduna saw 170+ abducted in a single incident in January.
World Bank: India, Indonesia, Brazil stoke fiscal stimulus
The World Bank's January Global Economic Prospects flagged India's tax reform widening near-term deficits but preserving labor-reform gains. Indonesia is ramping SOE capex; Brazil is using mass income-tax cuts to offset austerity.
IMF downgrades emerging-market growth to 3.9% for 2026
The IMF's April World Economic Outlook cut 2026 emerging-market growth from 4.2% (January forecast) to 3.9%. Energy and currency volatility pose the largest tail risks.
BRICS settles at 10 full members, 10 partners
BRICS in 2026 operates as 10 full membersโBrazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, UAE, Indonesiaโplus 10 partners including Belarus, Bolivia, Cuba, Kazakhstan, Malaysia, Nigeria, Thailand, Uganda, Uzbekistan, and Vietnam.
India infrastructure push accelerates; bank liquidity turns positive
Ashmore emerging-markets analysis shows India's upside stems from rate cuts, infrastructure spending, and stronger bank liquidity. After running negative in early 2025, bank liquidity has swung to surplus.
5.8 magnitude quake kills 12 in Afghanistan, Pakistan
A 5.8 magnitude earthquake struck Afghanistan and Pakistan on April 3, killing 12 in Kabul and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, with six wounded.
At least 16 Kenyans go missing on Ukraine front line
Kenya's government said at least 16 nationals recruited by Russia to fight in Ukraine have gone missing. Recruiters reportedly offered $2,700 monthly.
South Korea Q1 GDP +1.7% QoQ, semiconductor exports surge
Korea Q1 growth clocked 1.7% QoQ, highest since mid-2020, driven by AI-infrastructure chip export ramp (+5.1%).
BYD claims Brazil's April auto crownโfirst Chinese brand
BYD sold 14,911 units in April Brazil, edging Volkswagen by ~80 cars for top spot. Milestone marks first Chinese brand to lead Brazil's overall auto market; BYD global EV sales dipped 23% to 156,944.
Indonesia North Sulawesi quake topples buildings in Manado
April 2 earthquake in North Sulawesi triggers building collapse in Manado; one dead, one injured.
Seoul's Wrtn hits $100M ARR pace in AI storytelling
Wrtn Technologies' character-driven AI storytelling appsโ'Crack' (Korea), 'Kyarapu' (Japan)โtracking toward $100M annual run rate. Launches North America version 'OOC: The Playable Anime' April.
Cuba announces amnesty for 2,010 political and common prisoners
April 2: Cuba grants clemency based on conduct and health criteria; phased releases over coming months expected.
BRICS moves to 10-member status, NDB approves cumulative $42.9B across 139 projects
BRICS now comprises Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, UAE, and Indonesia as full members. The New Development Bank approved cumulative $42.9 billion across 139 projects as of April.
Indonesia negotiates 1 million tonnes of fertilizer exports to India, Philippines, Thailand, Brazil
Indonesia's cabinet secretary office said it is in talks to export 1 million tonnes of fertilizer to India, Philippines, Thailand, and Brazil.
South Africa xenophobic riots escalate; 130 Nigerians register for evacuation
About 100 protesters looted Nigerian-owned businesses in Pretoria and Yeoville. Some 130 Nigerians signed up for voluntary repatriation. President Tinubu ordered enhanced protection.
India and Brazil forge critical minerals and rare earths pact to diversify away from China
India and Brazil signed a critical minerals and rare earths cooperation agreement, stepping up supply-chain diversification away from Chinese dependence.
India, Indonesia, Brazil digitize social-safety verification using digital ID
India, Indonesia, and Brazil deployed digital identity systems to digitize enrollment and verification for national social protection programs.
South Korea-Indonesia expand cooperation across AI, defense, rare minerals, nuclear, culture
President Lee signaled expanded bilateral ties with Indonesian President Prabowo's state visit on March 31, broadening cooperation from trade to AI, digital infrastructure, defense, rare minerals, shipbuilding, nuclear, and creative industries.
India-Brazil agree to double bilateral trade to $30 billion by 2030
India and Brazil committed to doubling bilateral trade to roughly $30 billion by 2030 and expanding collaboration in rare minerals, digital infrastructure, healthcare, and supply chains.
North Korea-linked group plants malware in global open-source projects
Korean Peninsula analysts identified malware implanted in widely-used open-source code by a North Korea-linked hacking group as of March 31.
Pakistan and China launch '5-Point Peace Initiative' for Iran war
Pakistan and China unveiled a five-point ceasefire framework on March 31 centered on immediate halt to hostilities and humanitarian aid access, jointly mediating Middle East tensions.